Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Predictions
UEFA Nations League · World
Northern Ireland
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Ukraine
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.67(+32% edge)
Recommended Bets: Northern Ireland vs Ukraine
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine: Match Preview
Northern Ireland arrive in Belfast atop their Nations League group, unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws) and yet to concede a goal in this campaign. Their last five matches show a side comfortable grinding out results, with four clean sheets and a recent 3-0 win away at Ukraine. Ukraine, meanwhile, are struggling for momentum: two straight defeats, just one win in four, and only two goals scored in this group. With four points from four, they risk falling out of contention without a result here.
The tactical matchup is shaped by Northern Ireland's defensive discipline and Ukraine's lack of attacking punch. The hosts have averaged just 1.0 goal scored and 0.6 conceded per game in their last five, but at home they've yet to find the net—both matches ending 0-0. Ukraine's away games are similarly tight (one goal scored, none conceded), and their attack has been blunt, averaging 2.2 shots on target per match across the last five. Set-piece threat is minimal (combined corners average 2.8 for NI, 3.2 for Ukraine), but both teams are prone to bookings, with Ukraine's last five yielding 2.8 yellow cards per game.
The model expects a low-scoring, attritional contest, with the hosts' defensive structure and Ukraine's current lack of firepower making a single-goal margin likely. The value is clearest on 'BTTS: No' and under 2.5 goals, with a 1-0 home win the most probable outcome. The market's relatively open stance on the away win does not reflect the recent data, which strongly favours a tight home result.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Northern Ireland vs Ukraine
The model finds the strongest value on 'BTTS: No' (model 79% vs market 60%) and under 2.5 goals (81% vs 68% implied). The away win is overpriced given Ukraine's attacking output and recent form, while the home win is a touch short given Northern Ireland's lack of home goals, making the defensive markets the standout value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Northern Ireland vs Ukraine(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.69
Northern Ireland have kept four clean sheets in four Nations League matches (season clean sheet rate 100%), while Ukraine have failed to score in three of their last four competitive games and average just 0.5 goals per game in this campaign. The model's 79% 'no' probability is well above the 60% implied by odds of 1.67.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.48
Only one of Northern Ireland's four Nations League matches has gone over 2.5 goals (25%), and Ukraine's matches have averaged just 1.75 total goals. The model's 81% probability for under 2.5 is a strong value against the 68% implied by the market.
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Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Northern Ireland vs Ukraine that most previews miss.
- 1Northern Ireland have not conceded a single goal in four Nations League matches, yet have also failed to score in both home games (both 0-0).
- 2Ukraine have scored just once away from home in the group, and only two of their last five matches have seen both teams score.
- 3The last four head-to-head meetings have averaged just 1.5 goals per game, with three clean sheets for Northern Ireland.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 0.65
Over 2.5 Goals
20%
BTTS: Yes
28%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Prediction
Bookmakers are pricing this as a marginal home favourite (2.5) but with little conviction, leaving Ukraine not far behind at 3.1. The model, however, finds a more decisive edge for Northern Ireland based on defensive solidity and recent head-to-head dominance. The market appears to be underestimating just how blunt both attacks have been, especially in Belfast. Northern Ireland's campaign is built on defensive discipline: four matches, zero goals conceded, and just one BTTS result in their last five. Ukraine, by contrast, have scored only twice in four Nations League games, failing to find the net in three of their last four, and their away attack has produced just a single goal. The last meeting saw Northern Ireland win 3-0 in Ukraine, but that was a rare attacking outburst for either side. Set-piece threat is low (combined corners average under 6 per match), while both sides rack up cards (Northern Ireland 1.6, Ukraine 2.8 yellows per game recently), suggesting a scrappy, low-margin contest. Expect a cagey first half with little space between the lines—Northern Ireland's home matches have both finished 0-0, and Ukraine's away record is similarly tight. The likeliest scenario is a single goal deciding matters, with the hosts' defensive structure and Ukraine's lack of cutting edge tipping the balance. Value is strongest on 'BTTS: No' and under 2.5 goals, with the model rating a 1-0 home win as the most probable outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both sides average fewer than 1.5 goals per game in this competition, and the last two Northern Ireland home matches ended 0-0.
Defence
- →Northern Ireland have kept a clean sheet in all four Nations League matches (season clean sheet rate 100%).
Match Context
- →Ukraine have scored just two goals in four group games and failed to score in three of their last four competitive fixtures.
🚩 Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Northern Ireland and 3.2 for Ukraine, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 22%.
How Northern Ireland and Ukraine Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Northern Irelandlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ukrainelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Northern Ireland are unbeaten in their last five, with a form string of DWDWL and four clean sheets in that span. Their defensive solidity has been the foundation, but they've failed to score in both home matches. Ukraine, on the other hand, have lost two straight and managed just two goals in four Nations League games, with their form string reading LLDWL.
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Northern Ireland vs Ukraine
Northern Ireland have dominated recent head-to-heads, winning two of the last four and keeping three clean sheets. The most recent meeting saw them win 3-0 away, but the other matches have been tight, with three of four finishing under 2.5 goals.
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
2
Northern Ireland wins
1
Draws
1
Ukraine wins
Things to Watch: Northern Ireland vs Ukraine
- ⚠️Northern Ireland have not scored at home in this campaign, raising some risk to the home win probability.
- ⚠️Ukraine's away defence has not been breached in two matches, though against weaker opposition.
- ⚠️If either side departs from their recent defensive approach, the match could open up unexpectedly.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Northern Ireland 1–0 UkraineThe model calls a 1-0 win for Northern Ireland, anchored by their 100% clean sheet record in the group and Ukraine's ongoing attacking struggles. The strongest data point is Northern Ireland's defensive record—zero goals conceded in four—while the biggest risk is their inability to score at home so far, which could see another goalless stalemate if Ukraine's defence holds firm.
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine: Common Questions
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
The model gives Northern Ireland a 41% chance to win, Ukraine 26%, and the draw 33%. The home side's defensive record and Ukraine's lack of goals tip the balance, but with both teams struggling to score, a draw is also a strong possibility.
Will both teams score in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Both teams to score is rated at just 21%, with 'No' at 79%. Northern Ireland have kept four straight clean sheets in this group, and Ukraine have failed to score in three of their last four competitive matches.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Yes, under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured by the model at 81%, compared to the market's implied 68%. Both teams' recent matches have been low-scoring, and neither has scored more than once in any of their last five games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Northern Ireland vs Ukraine: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Resources
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results