Granada CF vs Valladolid Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Granada CF
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Valladolid
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.8/10Granada Edge Valladolid in Fiery Clash at Nuevo Los Cármenes
Granada CF secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Valladolid in a pulsating Segunda División encounter at Nuevo Los Cármenes. The hosts struck first in the 14th minute, setting the tone in a match that ebbed and flowed with both sides creating chances. Valladolid, who enjoyed the lion's share of possession at 58% and fired 14 shots (8 on target), found their equalizer early in the second half, only for Granada to reclaim the lead ten minutes later. The contest was marked by intensity and discipline issues, with Valladolid collecting four yellow cards and a red, which ultimately hampered their late push for an equalizer. Granada, despite conceding more possession and shots, showed clinical finishing and defensive resilience to hold on for all three points.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
14' — Goal
Jorge Pascual opens the scoring for Granada, finishing a swift attacking move.
57' — Goal
Victor Barberá levels for Valladolid after sustained pressure.
67' — Goal
Granada retake the lead, capitalizing on a defensive lapse.
73' — Red Card
Valladolid reduced to ten men following a second yellow for one of their defenders.
80' — Yellow Card
Valladolid pick up their fourth booking, further hampering their comeback hopes.
Granada CF
Granada CF made the most of their opportunities, converting two of their seven shots on target from a total of ten attempts. Despite having only 42% of the ball, they were efficient in transition and organized defensively, especially after regaining the lead. Their midfield trio worked tirelessly to disrupt Valladolid's rhythm, and the backline held firm under late pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Valladolid
Valladolid controlled much of the possession (58%) and generated more chances, registering 14 shots with 8 on target. Their midfield dictated play for large spells, and their equalizer in the 57th minute reflected their attacking intent. However, discipline proved costly as four yellow cards and a red disrupted their momentum, making it difficult to capitalize on their dominance in the final third.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Granada set up in a 4-3-3, focusing on compactness in midfield and quick transitions to exploit Valladolid's advanced fullbacks. Their wide forwards stretched play and created space for central runners, which was key to both goals. Valladolid's 4-1-3-2 formation allowed them to dominate possession and flood the midfield, but left them exposed to counter-attacks, especially after pushing for an equalizer. The red card forced Valladolid to shift to a more conservative shape, blunting their attacking threat in the closing stages. Set pieces were fiercely contested, with both sides earning multiple corners, but neither could capitalize. Granada's defensive discipline and ability to absorb pressure proved decisive, particularly after Valladolid went down to ten men.
Turning Point
The red card to Valladolid in the 73rd minute, which stifled their momentum and left them unable to mount a serious late challenge.
Man of the Match
Jorge Pascual
Scored the crucial opening goal and led the line with tireless energy, setting the tone for Granada's attacking play.
Granada CF vs Valladolid: Match Preview
Granada and Valladolid arrive separated by just two points in mid-table, with Granada holding a slight edge in both form and home advantage. Granada have won their last two matches, including a gritty 1-0 away at Burgos, while Valladolid are fresh from a 5-0 demolition of Albacete but remain winless away from home (0-3-2). Both sides have a positive goal difference, but neither has established consistent dominance, sitting 10th and 11th in the standings.
The matchup is defined by balanced scoring and conceding rates on both sides. Granada’s home attack (1.67 goals per game) is offset by a defence conceding 1.33 at home, while Valladolid’s away output is less convincing at 0.8 goals per game, conceding 1.4. Both teams’ recent matches show a trend towards goals—Granada’s last five average 3.6 total goals, Valladolid’s 3.6 as well—but their season-long over 2.5 rates are more moderate (Granada 56%, Valladolid 44%). Set-piece metrics are strong for Granada (5.8 corners per last five), while Valladolid’s discipline is a concern (3.2 yellows per last five).
The model expects a close contest, with neither side likely to dominate. Draw probability is elevated by Valladolid’s away tendency to share points and Granada’s balanced home record. The likeliest outcome is a 1-1, with both sides’ attacks capable but not prolific, and defensive lapses on both sides. Margins are thin, so a single set-piece or error could tip the balance.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Granada CF vs Valladolid Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Granada CF vs Valladolid that most previews miss.
- 1Valladolid have drawn three of five away matches this season, failing to win any.
- 2Granada’s last five matches have seen both teams score in four out of five.
- 3The last ten head-to-heads produced just one draw, with the home side winning six times.
Who do you think wins: Granada CF vs Valladolid?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Granada CF vs Valladolid(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average between 1.4 and 1.6 goals scored and conceded per match, and the draw probability is elevated by Valladolid’s tendency to draw away (3 in 5 away matches) and Granada’s balanced home record (1-1-1).
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Granada’s home matches average 3.0 goals but Valladolid away games are at 2.2, and both teams’ season-long over 2.5 rates are moderate (Granada 56%, Valladolid 44%), suggesting a slightly higher chance of a low-scoring contest.
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Double Chance: Granada CF or Draw
Valladolid have failed to win any of their five away matches (0-3-2), while Granada have lost only once at home, making the home side less likely to lose.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Granada CF vs Valladolid Prediction
Statistical rates point to a tightly balanced contest, with both teams producing and conceding at similar levels across the season. Granada’s home attack (1.67 goals per home match) faces a Valladolid defence that concedes 1.4 away, while Valladolid’s away attack (0.8 goals per game) is less effective than their home output. Recent form tilts only slightly towards Granada, but the draw emerges as the most probable outcome given the distribution of results and scoring rates.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Granada average 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game; Valladolid 1.44 scored and 1.22 conceded.
- →Both teams have only one clean sheet in their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Valladolid are winless away (0-3-2), Granada are balanced at home (1-1-1).
🚩 Granada CF vs Valladolid Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Granada CF and 5 for Valladolid, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How Granada CF and Valladolid Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Granada CF vs Valladolid Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Granada CFlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Valladolidlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Granada have found momentum with back-to-back wins, scoring four and conceding just two in that span, while Valladolid have also picked up with two wins and a draw in their last three. However, Valladolid remain winless away, while Granada’s home form is balanced, reflecting the overall parity between the sides.
Granada CF vs Valladolid — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: Granada CF vs Valladolid
Granada have the edge in recent meetings, winning five of the last ten, including a 5-1 home victory last season. However, Valladolid have also claimed four wins, and draws have been rare, with only one in the last decade. High-scoring encounters have been common, with four of the last ten producing at least four goals.
Granada CF vs Valladolid Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Granada CF wins
1
Draws
4
Valladolid wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Granada CF vs Valladolid
With no bookmaker odds available, value analysis is not possible for this fixture. The model’s probabilities suggest the draw and under 2.5 goals are marginally more likely than a typical market might price, but confirmation would require odds data.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Granada CF vs Valladolid
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️No injury or suspension data impacting lineups, but late changes could affect probabilities.
- ⚠️Small sample size for home/away splits (3 home, 5 away games each) adds volatility.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Granada CF 1–1 ValladolidA 1-1 draw is the statistical centre given both sides’ season-long scoring and conceding rates and Valladolid’s tendency to draw away. The single strongest data point is Valladolid’s 0-3-2 away record, which suppresses their win probability. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Granada’s recent attacking surge at home (23 shots, 14 corners in their last home game) translates into a more decisive home win.
Granada CF vs Valladolid: Common Questions
Who will win Granada CF vs Valladolid?
Model probabilities give Granada a 37% chance of victory, a draw at 34%, and Valladolid a 29% chance. Both teams are closely matched in season-long scoring and conceding rates, so a draw is marginally favoured.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Valladolid?
There is a 52% probability for both teams to score, with Granada seeing BTTS in four of their last five matches and Valladolid in three of five. Defensive lapses on both sides support this rate.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in Granada CF vs Valladolid?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly more probable at 54%, with both teams averaging between 2.7 and 3.0 total goals per match but season-long over 2.5 rates below 56% for both.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Granada CF vs Valladolid: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 16 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.