Greece vs Serbia Predictions
UEFA Nations League · World
Greece
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Serbia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.75(+24% edge)
Recommended Bets: Greece vs Serbia
Greece vs Serbia: Match Preview
Greece return to Volos after a bruising 0-7 away defeat to the Netherlands, a result that snapped a resilient four-match unbeaten run. Prior to that, Gus Poyet's side had shown real momentum, including a famous 1-0 win in Germany and a comeback draw at home to the Dutch. Serbia, meanwhile, are rooted to the foot of the group, winless and pointless after five, but have managed to keep most games competitive, scoring in four and rarely being blown away.
Statistically, this is a clash of two sides with defensive frailties—Greece have conceded ten in five, Serbia eleven, and both average over two goals against per match in this Nations League cycle. Greece's attack has been patchy at home (only two goals in two matches), but their shot volume is healthy (11.2 per game last five). Serbia, for all their struggles, have managed to find the net in four of five, and their BTTS rate (4/5) is the highest in the group. Set-piece threat is limited on both sides, with neither averaging more than four corners per game, but discipline could play a role: Serbia have picked up two reds and 12 yellows in their last five.
The model expects Greece to control possession and create more, but not without scares at the back. Serbia's ability to stay in games and score even when second-best suggests this won't be straightforward. A narrow Greece win is favoured, but with both sides likely to concede, a 2-1 home victory is the likeliest scenario—though another home draw can't be ruled out given Greece's recent pattern in Volos.
How Greece and Serbia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Greece vs Serbia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Greecelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Serbialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Greece's recent form was building impressively with a four-match unbeaten streak (2W 2D), including a notable away win in Germany, before their momentum was abruptly halted by a 0-7 thrashing at the hands of the Netherlands. Serbia, on the other hand, are in the midst of a five-game losing run, but have at least managed to score in four of those, keeping most matches close despite their defensive issues.
Greece vs Serbia — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 80% of games this season
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Greece vs Serbia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Greece vs Serbia that most previews miss.
- 1Greece have drawn both home matches in this group, conceding exactly two goals in one and keeping a clean sheet in the other.
- 2Serbia have seen BTTS land in four of their last five, despite losing every match.
- 3Greece have scored four of their last five goals after the 70th minute, indicating late-game resilience.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.00
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Greece vs Serbia?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Greece vs Serbia Prediction
Greece's recent form has been a tale of resilience and recovery, only marred by a catastrophic 0-7 defeat to the Netherlands last time out. Prior to that, they were unbeaten in four, including a gritty 1-0 win away to Germany and a comeback 2-2 home draw against the Dutch. Serbia, by contrast, are mired in a five-match losing streak, but have managed to score in four of those games and rarely collapse, with three of their defeats coming by a single goal.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Greece have not won at home in this campaign (2 draws), but are unbeaten in Volos.
Defence
- →Serbia have lost all five matches but have scored in four, with a 0% clean sheet rate.
- →Both teams average over 2 goals conceded per game in their last five, hinting at defensive vulnerabilities.
Where the Model Sees Value: Greece vs Serbia(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.55
Despite Greece's stronger recent run, their home matches have both ended level (0-0 v Germany, 2-2 v Netherlands), and Serbia—though winless—have kept four of five matches within a single goal. The model's draw probability (26%) is notably higher than the market's implied probability (21%), offering a positive edge.
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More UEFA Nations League Predictions
🚩 Greece vs Serbia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Greece and 4 for Serbia, for an expected total of 8.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 49% · Over 10.5: 25%.
What History Says: Greece vs Serbia
The only recent meeting between these sides saw Greece win 2-1 away in September, a match where both teams found the net and the result was decided late. That contest fits the broader pattern of narrow margins and both teams scoring, suggesting another competitive encounter.
Greece vs Serbia Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Greece wins
0
Draws
0
Serbia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Greece vs Serbia
The biggest value edge lies on the draw, with the model's probability (26%) exceeding the market's implied 21% (odds 4.75), likely reflecting Greece's home draw habit and Serbia's ability to keep games tight. Other markets, such as BTTS and under 2.5 goals, are priced in line with model expectations, offering little value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Greece vs Serbia
- ⚠️Greece's 0-7 loss to the Netherlands is an outlier but could signal underlying defensive issues.
- ⚠️Serbia's form is poor, but their matches are often competitive and not one-sided.
- ⚠️Both teams have rotated lineups, so starting XIs could impact the tactical balance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Greece 2–1 SerbiaThe model calls a 2-1 win for Greece, primarily on the back of their superior recent momentum and Serbia's ongoing defensive woes. The single strongest data point is Greece's ability to find late goals and grind out results even when not dominant. However, Greece's inability to win at home so far and their defensive collapse in the last outing mean a draw remains a live risk.
Greece vs Serbia: Common Questions
Who will win Greece vs Serbia?
Greece are favoured with a 61% probability of victory, reflecting their stronger recent form and Serbia's five-match losing streak. However, the model also sees a 26% chance of a draw, as Greece have failed to win either home game so far.
Will both teams score in Greece vs Serbia?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, with Serbia scoring in four of their last five and Greece conceding in three of five. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides make BTTS a plausible outcome.
Can Greece bounce back after their 0-7 defeat?
Despite the heavy loss to the Netherlands, Greece's prior unbeaten run—highlighted by a win in Germany and a draw with the Dutch—suggests they can recover. Their late-goal habit and Serbia's poor defensive record point to a strong chance of a positive result.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Greece vs Serbia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.