Grimsby vs York Predictions
League Two · England
Grimsby
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
York
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Grimsby vs York
Grimsby vs York: Match Preview
Grimsby come into this fixture on a five-game winless streak (DLLLL), slipping to 17th in League Two after a promising start. Their recent defensive record is concerning, with 9 goals conceded in their last five, and they have failed to score in two of those matches. York, meanwhile, sit 6th but have drawn three straight and are still searching for their first away win of the season, with a road record of 0W, 3D, 2L and just five goals scored in those games.
The statistical profile points to a balanced contest. Grimsby average 1.25 goals for and against per game, while York's attack is stronger at 1.73 per game but has not translated to away wins. Both teams' over 2.5 rates are below 50% (Grimsby 50%, York 45.45%), and their last five matches have produced 0.8–1.2 goals scored and 1.0–1.8 conceded per side. Corners and cards are both above average, with Grimsby averaging 5.6 corners and 2.2 yellows per game in their last five, suggesting set pieces and discipline could play a role.
The model expects a cagey encounter, with neither attack likely to dominate. York's inability to convert away draws into wins and Grimsby's recent defensive frailty cancel each other out, making a draw the most probable outcome. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1, with a low probability of a high-scoring match given the underlying rates and both sides' recent form.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Grimsby vs York Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Grimsby vs York that most previews miss.
- 1York have failed to win any of their five away league matches this season, drawing three and losing two.
- 2Grimsby have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, conceding 1.8 goals per game in that span.
- 3Both teams have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches, but under 2.5 goals has landed in over half of York's games (54.55%).
Who do you think wins: Grimsby vs York?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Grimsby vs York(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average between 1.2 and 1.7 goals for and 1.0 to 1.8 against over their last five and season-long splits, with three of their last five matches for each ending in BTTS. The draw probability is highest in the model, and neither side has a strong home/away win record.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams' over 2.5 rates are below 50% (Grimsby 50%, York 45.45%), and recent averages show a combined 2.0–2.2 goals per game, suggesting a lower-scoring contest is more likely.
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More League Two Predictions
The Case For This Grimsby vs York Prediction
Statistically, this is a mid-table League Two matchup with neither side showing a decisive edge. Grimsby have lost four of their last five and have not kept a clean sheet in that span, but York have failed to win away all season (0W, 3D, 2L), despite sitting 6th. Both teams' scoring and conceding rates cluster around the league average, with Grimsby netting 1.25 and conceding 1.25 per game, and York slightly higher at 1.73 for and 1.18 against. The model expects a tightly-contested match, with a draw the modal outcome and a low likelihood of a goal rush.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Grimsby are winless in five (DLLLL) and have conceded 1.8 goals per game in that stretch.
Match Context
- →York have not won away in the league this season (0W, 3D, 2L, 5 GF, 8 GA).
- →Both teams have BTTS in 3 of their last 5, and season-long over 2.5 rates are below 50%.
🚩 Grimsby vs York Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Grimsby and 3.8 for York, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Grimsby and York Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Grimsby vs York Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Grimsbylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Yorklast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Grimsby are struggling for momentum, winless in five and conceding nearly two goals per game in that stretch. York are unbeaten in their last three but have drawn all of them, and remain without an away win this season, suggesting both sides are struggling to turn performances into victories.
Grimsby vs York — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession — 61% avg
What History Says: Grimsby vs York
York have won all four recorded head-to-heads, including two competitive visits to Grimsby, but the most recent was a 2024 friendly. The lack of recent league meetings limits the relevance of this trend, but it does underline York's historical edge.
Grimsby vs York Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
0
Grimsby wins
0
Draws
4
York wins
Things to Watch: Grimsby vs York
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges can be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent H2H data is sparse and not league-relevant; last competitive meetings were over a decade ago.
- ⚠️York's away sample is only five matches; possible volatility in their true away level.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Grimsby 1–1 YorkA 1-1 draw is the model's baseline, driven by York's inability to win away (0/5) and Grimsby's leaky defence but moderate home scoring. The biggest risk to this forecast is if York's above-average attack finally clicks on the road, or if Grimsby's defensive issues deepen, tipping the match towards a higher total or an away win.
Grimsby vs York: Common Questions
Who will win Grimsby vs York?
The model gives York a slight edge (away win 35%, draw 37%, home win 28%), but both teams' recent form and York's winless away record point to a high chance of a draw.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs York?
There's a 51% probability of both teams scoring, with each side averaging at least 1 goal scored and conceded per game, and three of their last five matches featuring BTTS.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Grimsby vs York?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 57% probability, based on both teams' season-long over 2.5 rates being below 50% and their recent matches averaging around 2 goals each.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Grimsby vs York: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.