Harborough Town vs St Albans City Predictions
FA Cup · England
Harborough Town
AI Predicted Score
0 - 2
St Albans City
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
Recommended Bets: Harborough Town vs St Albans City
Harborough Town vs St Albans City: Match Preview
Harborough Town enter this FA Cup tie with a mixed run of form, having won two, drawn one, and lost two of their last five matches. Their attack has struggled, failing to score in three of those games, and their only recent victory came via a narrow 1-0 win over Rushall Olympic. St Albans City, meanwhile, arrive unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws, and have scored 12 goals while conceding just three in that span. Both sides have posted clean sheets in recent outings, but St Albans City's away record in this competition stands out, with two straight wins to nil on the road.
Tactically, the contrast is stark: Harborough Town average just 0.6 goals scored per game over their last five, while St Albans City have averaged 2.4. The away side's defensive numbers are equally impressive, conceding only 0.6 per match and keeping four clean sheets in five. Harborough Town's main weakness is their inability to generate consistent attacking threat, as evidenced by three games without a goal and only one BTTS result in their last five. Both teams' recent matches point to a low probability of both teams scoring, and the model expects St Albans City to control proceedings, especially given their 100% clean sheet rate in the FA Cup this season.
Given these underlying rates, the model projects a low-to-moderate goal environment (41% for over 2.5 goals), with St Albans City the clear favourites to progress. The most likely scenario is an away win to nil, with the away side's superior scoring and defensive efficiency the decisive factors. Harborough Town's best hope lies in keeping the game tight early, but the distribution of recent results suggests St Albans City will break through, most likely in the second half.
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Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
42%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Harborough Town vs St Albans City Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Harborough Town vs St Albans City that most previews miss.
- 1Harborough Town have failed to score in 60% of their last five matches, while St Albans City have kept a clean sheet in 80% of theirs.
- 2St Albans City have scored five goals in their last two away FA Cup matches, conceding none.
- 3Only one of Harborough Town's last five matches has seen both teams score.
Who do you think wins: Harborough Town vs St Albans City?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Harborough Town vs St Albans City(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No
Both teams have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches combined, and Harborough Town have failed to score in three of their last five. The model gives an 81% probability for at least one side failing to score, well above typical market averages.
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Match Result: St Albans City Win
St Albans City average 2.4 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded per game over their last five, with two away FA Cup wins to nil. Harborough Town have scored only twice in their last four and conceded three at home to Hereford.
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More FA Cup Predictions
The Case For This Harborough Town vs St Albans City Prediction
The statistical shape of this tie is defined by St Albans City's strong away scoring rate and defensive solidity, set against a Harborough Town side struggling to create chances and break down opponents. The away side's recent results point to a high probability of a clean sheet, while the hosts' lack of attacking output makes a low-scoring home performance likely. The most probable outcome is a controlled St Albans City win, with the away attack's efficiency and defensive record driving the model's forecast.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Harborough Town have failed to score in three of their last five games.
Defence
- →St Albans City have scored 12 goals and conceded just 3 in their last five matches.
- →St Albans City have kept four clean sheets in their last five, including both away FA Cup ties.
How Harborough Town and St Albans City Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Harborough Town vs St Albans City Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Harborough Townlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
St Albans Citylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Harborough Town's recent form is patchy, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five, but a concerning lack of attacking output—three matches without a goal. St Albans City, by contrast, are unbeaten in five, scoring 12 and conceding just three, and have posted back-to-back away clean sheets in the FA Cup. The away side's momentum and efficiency at both ends of the pitch set them apart in the run-up to this tie.
Harborough Town vs St Albans City — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 3.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Things to Watch: Harborough Town vs St Albans City
- ⚠️No head-to-head or league standings data is available for cross-checking relative team strength.
- ⚠️Lack of shot, possession, and set-piece data increases model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Cup ties can produce atypical outcomes due to rotation or motivational factors not captured in the stats.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Harborough Town 0–2 St Albans CityThe model forecasts a 2-0 win for St Albans City, anchored by their superior away attacking rate (2.4 goals per game) and a run of four clean sheets in five matches. The biggest risk to this projection is the lack of head-to-head or league table context, which could mask a hidden strength or weakness in Harborough Town that recent cup and league results do not reveal.
Harborough Town vs St Albans City: Common Questions
Who will win Harborough Town vs St Albans City?
St Albans City are strong favourites according to the model, with a 57% probability of winning compared to 16% for Harborough Town and 27% for the draw. This is based on St Albans City's recent scoring rate and defensive record.
Will both teams score in Harborough Town vs St Albans City?
The model gives just a 19% probability for both teams to score, with 81% for 'No'. Harborough Town have failed to score in three of their last five, while St Albans City have kept four clean sheets in the same span.
How many goals will be scored in Harborough Town vs St Albans City?
There is a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 67% probability for over 1.5 goals. The most likely outcome is a low-to-moderate scoring match, with St Albans City expected to keep a clean sheet.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Harborough Town vs St Albans City: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.