Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Heart Of Midlothian
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Dundee
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee: Match Preview
Hearts arrive at Tynecastle sitting second in the table, buoyed by a perfect home league record (2 wins from 2, 6 goals scored, 1 conceded) and a five-match unbeaten run in all competitions. Dundee, just a point behind in third, have also started strongly, picking up two wins and a loss from their opening three league fixtures and notching back-to-back clean sheets in their recent victories. Both sides have shown early-season momentum, but Hearts' home form and attacking output stand out in the numbers.
The statistical matchup is shaped by contrasting strengths: Hearts' attack has averaged 2.33 goals per league game and 3.0 across their last five in all competitions, while Dundee's defence has been among the stingiest in the division, conceding just once in three league games (0.33 per match) and keeping three clean sheets in their last five overall. Hearts have also seen 100% of their league matches go over 2.5 goals, whereas Dundee's have all stayed under, reflecting a clash of pace and control. Both teams have shown a tendency to create chances from wide areas, with Hearts averaging 3.8 corners and Dundee 4.2 per match over their last five.
Given the underlying rates, the model expects Hearts to edge a competitive match, projecting a 2-1 home win. The home side's attacking efficiency at Tynecastle, coupled with a historical edge in this fixture, tips the balance, but Dundee's improved shot volume and defensive record suggest they are capable of making this a close contest, especially if they can frustrate Hearts early and exploit transitions.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee that most previews miss.
- 1Hearts have scored at least twice in five consecutive home matches across all competitions.
- 2Dundee have not been involved in a BTTS match in their last five outings (0/5), with three clean sheets.
- 3Eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings have been won by Hearts, with no draws in that span.
Who do you think wins: Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–1
The 2-1 scoreline aligns with Hearts' attacking output at home (2.33 goals per game) and Dundee's defensive solidity (0.33 conceded per game) but recent upturn in both teams' scoring rates. However, no odds are available to confirm value.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Hearts' matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 100% of league games this season and their last 5 average 4.2 total goals, while Dundee's away defence has only allowed 1 goal in 2 games but their attack has improved. No odds supplied, so EV cannot be calculated.
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The Case For This Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a moderately high-scoring contest with Hearts' prolific home attack (2.33 goals per game) facing a Dundee side that has conceded just once in two away league outings. The underlying rates point to Hearts' edge at Tynecastle, but Dundee's recent uptick in shot volume (12.8 per game last 5) and three clean sheets in five suggest they are not easily broken down.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Hearts average 2.33 goals scored per league game, with 6 goals in 2 home matches.
Defence
- →Dundee have conceded just 1 goal in 3 league games, with a 66.7% clean sheet rate.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head is heavily in Hearts' favour: 8 wins from the last 10 meetings.
🚩 Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.7 corners for Heart Of Midlothian and 4.8 for Dundee, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.
How Heart Of Midlothian and Dundee Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Heart Of Midlothianlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dundeelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hearts are unbeaten in their last five, with a form string of WDWDW and an average of 3 goals scored per game in that stretch. Dundee's WLWLW run includes two league wins and three clean sheets, but also two matches where they failed to score, highlighting some volatility in their attack.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee
Hearts have won eight of the last ten meetings with Dundee, including the last three at Tynecastle by a combined 6-0 scoreline. Dundee's only two wins in that span both came away, but there have been no draws between these sides in their last ten encounters.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
8
Heart Of Midlothian wins
0
Draws
2
Dundee wins
Things to Watch: Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be formally assessed.
- ⚠️Small sample size for both teams' defensive and attacking rates this season.
- ⚠️Recent cup and European fixtures may affect squad freshness; lineups not confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Heart Of Midlothian 2–1 DundeeThe model predicts a 2-1 win for Hearts, underpinned by their 2.33 goals per game at home and a dominant recent record against Dundee. The main caveat is Dundee's defensive upgrade this season—if they can maintain their 0.33 goals conceded per game away from home, the match could be far tighter than the historical trend suggests.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee: Common Questions
Who will win Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee?
The model gives Hearts a 47% probability of victory, Dundee a 23% chance, and a draw at 30%. Hearts' strong home scoring rate and dominant head-to-head record tilt the balance in their favour.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Hearts vs Dundee?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 57%, reflecting Hearts' 100% over 2.5 rate in league play and Dundee's improved attack, though Dundee's matches have all stayed under so far this season.
Is both teams to score likely in Hearts vs Dundee?
Both teams to score is rated at 54%. Hearts have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5, but Dundee have kept three clean sheets in their last five and have not had a BTTS game in that span.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.