Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Predictions
Super League · China
Henan Jianye
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Honours Even in Zhengzhou: Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long Share the Spoils
Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long played out a 1-1 draw at the Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, with both sides showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive breakthrough. The hosts dominated possession, controlling 69% of the ball and registering 14 shots (6 on target), but were made to rue missed opportunities as Chongqing Tongliang Long struck back early in the second half. Henan took the lead in the 17th minute, capitalizing on their early dominance, but Chongqing weathered the storm and responded with a well-taken equalizer in the 58th minute. Despite a flurry of late pressure from the home side and some nervy moments for both defences, neither team could fashion a winner, leaving both to settle for a point apiece.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
17' — Goal
Henan Jianye open the scoring after sustained pressure.
58' — Goal
Du Yuezheng levels for Chongqing Tongliang Long with a composed finish.
63' — Yellow Card
Henan Jianye receive a yellow card as tempers flare in midfield.
75' — Yellow Card
Chongqing Tongliang Long pick up a booking for a tactical foul breaking up a counter.
82' — Yellow Card
Another Henan player enters the referee's book as both sides push for a winner.
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye started brightly, dictating the tempo with their 4-3-3 formation and enjoying long spells of possession. Their midfield trio, anchored by He Chao and Bruno Nazário, moved the ball efficiently and created several promising openings, culminating in an early goal. However, despite firing 14 shots and forcing 6 saves, their attack lacked the clinical edge required to put the game beyond doubt. Defensively, Henan remained largely untroubled in the first half but were caught out after the break, conceding an equalizer against the run of play. A late push saw them win six corners, but Chongqing's resilience and some wasteful finishing left Henan frustrated at full time.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long set up in a compact 4-2-3-1, conceding possession but remaining disciplined and organized. Their defensive line, marshaled by Jin Pengxiang and Ruan Qilong, absorbed sustained pressure in the first half, and goalkeeper Wu Zitong was called into action several times. After the interval, Chongqing grew into the contest and found an equalizer in the 58th minute, making the most of their limited opportunities (10 shots, 3 on target). Despite committing 19 fouls and picking up a yellow card, they managed to disrupt Henan's rhythm and held firm in the closing stages to secure a valuable away point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Henan Jianye's 4-3-3 allowed them to control the tempo and stretch Chongqing's defensive block, especially through the flanks where Gustavo and Pedro Maranhão were lively. Their midfield trio recycled possession efficiently but often found Chongqing's back four difficult to penetrate in the final third. Set pieces provided additional opportunities, but the home side could not convert any of their six corners. Chongqing Tongliang Long's 4-2-3-1 was built on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their double pivot shielded the back line, and they looked to exploit spaces left by Henan's advancing full-backs. The tactical discipline was evident in their ability to frustrate Henan and take their chance clinically when it arrived. The high foul count suggested a willingness to disrupt Henan's rhythm at the expense of fluidity.
Turning Point
Du Yuezheng's equalizer in the 58th minute shifted the momentum, allowing Chongqing to settle and ultimately secure a draw.
Man of the Match
Wu Zitong
His string of saves, particularly in the second half, preserved a valuable away point for Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: Match Preview
Henan Jianye approach this match sitting 13th in the Super League, just one point behind Chongqing Tongliang Long in 7th, despite both sides holding a negative goal difference. Henan’s recent form is mixed, with a heavy 1-4 defeat at Shanghai Shenhua following a five-goal home win and two draws, while Chongqing’s last five league outings have yielded just two points and a single goal scored in their last three. Both sides are in need of a result to stabilise their campaigns, but neither carries convincing momentum.
Statistically, this is a contest between two of the league’s most evenly matched sides. Henan average 1.23 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game, while Chongqing are only marginally more defensive (1.09 for, 1.17 against). Henan’s home attack has produced 15 goals in 11 matches, but Chongqing’s away games are typically low-scoring (9 for, 14 against in 12). Both teams’ last five matches show modest attacking output—Henan at 1.8 goals per game, Chongqing at just 0.8—while their defensive numbers are similarly aligned. Neither side excels at keeping clean sheets, but Chongqing’s 35% season clean sheet rate is notably higher than Henan’s 18%.
The model expects a low-scoring, balanced match with neither side likely to seize full control. The draw emerges as the most probable outcome, backed by Chongqing’s league-high nine draws and a near-identical goal difference. With both sides averaging well under two goals per game and a recent history of tight head-to-heads, a 1-1 scoreline is the statistical baseline, with under 2.5 goals a marginally stronger lean.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long that most previews miss.
- 1Chongqing Tongliang Long have recorded nine draws in 23 league matches (39%), the highest in the division.
- 2Henan’s home games average just 2.45 total goals, while Chongqing’s away matches average 1.92.
- 3Both teams have failed to score in at least one of their last five matches, with Chongqing blanking in three of five.
Who do you think wins: Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
Both sides average just over a goal per game (Henan 1.23, Chongqing 1.09), and each concedes at a similar rate, with neither attack showing consistent edge. The draw probability is elevated by Chongqing’s league-high nine draws and Henan’s five, with both teams’ recent form strings (Henan LDDWW, Chongqing DLLLD) pointing to a lack of decisive momentum.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Henan’s home matches average 2.45 goals, Chongqing’s away games just 1.92, and both teams’ season over 2.5 rates are modest (Henan 59%, Chongqing 35%). The last two H2H meetings finished 1-1 and 2-1, supporting a lower-scoring expectation.
Read more ↓
More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction
This fixture pairs two mid-table sides with nearly identical goal differences and a strong tendency toward stalemates, as reflected in their league records and recent form. Henan Jianye’s home attack has produced 15 goals in 11 matches, while Chongqing Tongliang Long’s away record is defined by low-scoring, tight contests. The statistical profile points to a balanced, low-margin encounter where neither side is likely to dominate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Henan average 1.23 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per match; Chongqing post 1.09 for, 1.17 against.
Match Context
- →Chongqing have drawn 9 of 23 league matches (39%), and Henan have drawn 5 of 22 (23%).
- →Both teams have negative goal differences and similar home/away splits.
🚩 Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Henan Jianye and 4.7 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (50%). Over 8.5: 63% · Over 10.5: 38%.
How Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Henan Jianyelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chongqing Tongliang Longlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Henan Jianye’s recent form is patchy, with two wins, two draws, and a heavy defeat in their last five, scoring nine and conceding seven. Chongqing Tongliang Long are winless in their last four league outings, drawing twice and losing twice, with just two goals scored in that stretch. Both teams lack sustained momentum, but Henan’s home attack has shown the greater recent spark.
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 57% avg
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
The head-to-head record is limited but telling: both prior meetings were tight, ending 1-1 and 2-1. Neither side has managed to assert clear superiority, and both matches stayed under 2.5 goals, reinforcing the statistical expectation of a close contest.
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
1
Henan Jianye wins
2
Draws
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Without bookmaker odds, formal value cannot be calculated, but the model’s probabilities would look for value on the draw and under 2.5 goals if market prices offered a meaningful edge. The high draw rate for Chongqing and the low-scoring profile of both sides are key factors to watch for mispricings.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be formally calculated.
- ⚠️Sample size for H2H is limited (only two prior meetings).
- ⚠️Both teams are inconsistent in attack, raising variance in low-scoring projections.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Henan Jianye 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang LongThe data points to a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, driven by both sides’ season-long scoring rates (Henan 1.23, Chongqing 1.09) and Chongqing’s high draw frequency. The main risk to this prediction is a sudden attacking surge from Henan, who have shown occasional home explosiveness, but the overall rate profile favours a low-event, even contest.
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: Common Questions
Who will win Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
The model assigns a 36% probability to both a Henan win and a draw, with Chongqing given a 28% chance. Both teams have similar goal differences and attack/defence rates, so the draw is marginally favoured.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly more likely at 56%, based on both teams’ modest scoring rates and Chongqing’s low-scoring away record (1.92 goals per away match).
Is both teams to score (BTTS) a strong play in this match?
The probability for both teams to score is 49%, with both sides failing to score in several recent matches. The data suggests BTTS is close to a coin flip, so neither outcome is strongly favoured.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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