Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island Predictions
Super League · China
Henan Jianye
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Qingdao Youth Island
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6/10Henan Jianye Held by Ten Men as Qingdao Youth Island Escape with Stalemate
Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island played out a tense 0-0 draw at the Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, with the home side left frustrated after failing to capitalize on their numerical superiority and dominance in possession. Despite Henan's 58% share of the ball and a barrage of 12 shots (five on target), they could not find a way past a resolute Qingdao defense, even as the visitors failed to register a single shot on target themselves. The match was marked by a red card to Henan Jianye, which shifted the momentum and forced the hosts to adopt a more cautious approach. Qingdao, despite their lack of attacking threat, showed discipline and organization, picking up three yellow cards but ultimately holding on for a valuable away point.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
35' — Red Card
Henan Jianye reduced to ten men, forcing tactical reshuffle.
42' — Yellow Card
Qingdao's Samir Memisevic booked for a late challenge.
54' — Yellow Card
Qingdao pick up another yellow as tempers flare in midfield.
68' — Henan Chance
Gustavo goes close with a header, but Hao Li saves comfortably.
83' — Yellow Card
Henan's frustration boils over with a late booking.
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye controlled the majority of the match, dictating play with 58% possession and creating far more opportunities than their opponents. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to push numbers forward, resulting in 12 shots and six corners, but a lack of clinical finishing and a costly red card undermined their efforts. Despite being reduced to ten men, Henan continued to press but were unable to break the deadlock, ultimately settling for a point in a match they will feel they should have won.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island set up in a disciplined 4-4-1-1, focusing on defensive solidity and organization. While they struggled to mount any meaningful attacks—managing just five shots and none on target—their defensive unit, led by Samir Memisevic, stood firm under sustained pressure. Despite conceding possession and territory, Qingdao's resilience and tactical discipline allowed them to escape Zhengzhou with a hard-fought point, though their attacking impotence will be a concern going forward.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Henan Jianye's 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate the midfield and control the tempo, with Bruno Nazário orchestrating play and Gustavo providing a focal point up front. Their width and overlapping full-backs created several shooting opportunities, but a lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly. The red card forced Henan to be more conservative, limiting their attacking options late on. Qingdao Youth Island, lining up in a compact 4-4-1-1, prioritized defensive stability over attacking ambition. The midfield four dropped deep to shield the back line, and the lone striker Aziz was often isolated. Qingdao's substitutions and tactical fouls helped disrupt Henan's rhythm, and their disciplined shape was key to securing a point.
Turning Point
The red card to Henan Jianye in the 35th minute changed the complexion of the match, forcing the home side to play more cautiously and ultimately stifling their attacking momentum.
Man of the Match
Samir Memisevic
Led Qingdao's defense with authority, making crucial interventions and keeping Henan at bay despite relentless pressure.
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island: Match Preview
Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island approach this fixture level on points (28 each), sitting mid-table with little between them in terms of season-long output. Henan's recent form reads DWWLL, including a 5-1 home win over Qingdao Jonoon, but also two defeats in their last five. Qingdao Youth Island have also had a mixed run, with a WLDLW record and a recent 1-0 away win at Shenyang Urban, but a heavy 0-3 defeat at Sichuan Jiuniu still fresh in the memory. Both sides are looking to consolidate their positions in the top half, with neither in immediate danger nor in strong contention for the title.
The statistical matchup is finely balanced. Henan average 1.5 goals for and 1.2 against at home, while Qingdao Youth Island concede 2.0 per away game but have managed 1.1 scored per trip. Both teams' last five matches show similar defensive frailties (1.4 goals conceded per game) and moderate attacking output, but Henan have scored in every recent match, while Qingdao have failed to score in two of five. H2H history reinforces the parity: two draws, two away wins for Qingdao, and low-scoring outcomes like 0-0 and 1-1 in the last two meetings. Set-piece and discipline data suggest a slightly above-average card count but little to separate them on corners.
Given these numbers, the model expects a tight, low-scoring encounter with neither side likely to take control. The most probable outcome is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline leading the distribution. Both teams' goal rates and defensive records point to under 2.5 goals as a marginal favourite, but the volatility in both sides' recent results means a narrow home or away win cannot be discounted.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island that most previews miss.
- 1Qingdao Youth Island concede 2.0 goals per away match, the highest among the top half teams in the league.
- 2Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in all of their last five matches, but have not kept a clean sheet in that span.
- 3Three of the last five H2H meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, including the most recent 0-0 draw.
Who do you think wins: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average around 1.2–1.3 goals scored per game and have drawn two of their last five H2H meetings, with a 0-0 and 1-1 among them. The distribution of goals and defensive records point to a low-scoring, balanced contest.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Henan Jianye's matches have gone under 2.5 in 40% of games, Qingdao Youth Island in 60%, and both teams' recent scoring rates are modest, suggesting a slightly higher probability for the under.
Read more ↓
Double Chance: Henan Jianye or Draw
Henan Jianye have a balanced home record (4W, 2D, 4L) and Qingdao Youth Island have lost four of ten away, so the home side avoiding defeat is slightly more probable than market average.
Read more ↓
More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, closely-matched contest between two mid-table sides with similar underlying numbers. Both teams average just over a goal per game and have defensive records that suggest neither will dominate. The most likely scenario is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline the modal outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Henan Jianye average 1.3 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game; Qingdao Youth Island average 1.2 scored and 1.45 conceded.
- →Henan have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, but have scored in every one; Qingdao Youth Island have failed to score in two of their last five.
- →Qingdao Youth Island's away defence is a concern, conceding 20 in 10 away matches (2.0 per game), but Henan's home attack is only moderate (1.5 per game).
🚩 Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Henan Jianye and 5.6 for Qingdao Youth Island, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 49%.
How Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Henan Jianyelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Qingdao Youth Islandlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Henan Jianye have taken seven points from their last five matches, highlighted by a 5-1 home win but also two defeats. Qingdao Youth Island's recent form is similarly inconsistent, with a 1-0 away win last time out but a 0-3 loss and just four goals scored in their last five league games. Neither side has built sustained momentum, and both are firmly mid-table.
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island
The last five meetings between these sides have produced two draws, two away wins for Qingdao Youth Island, and one home win for Henan Jianye. Recent clashes have tended towards low scores, with the last two ending 0-0 and 1-1. No team has established clear dominance in this fixture.
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
1
Henan Jianye wins
3
Draws
2
Qingdao Youth Island wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island
With no bookmaker odds available, value identification is limited. However, the model's probabilities point to a slight edge on the draw and under 2.5 goals markets, given the high frequency of low-scoring, evenly-matched games between these teams. If market odds price either side as a strong favourite, that would likely be an overstatement of the statistical reality.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Recent form is mixed for both sides, and both have shown volatility in results.
- ⚠️Potential for late team news or tactical changes is not reflected due to missing lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Henan Jianye 1–1 Qingdao Youth IslandThe model calls this as a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' season-long averages of just over a goal scored per game and similar defensive records. The strongest data point is Qingdao Youth Island's high away concession rate (2.0 per game), but Henan's inconsistent home attack tempers expectations. If either side finds a clinical edge or capitalises on defensive errors, a 2-1 result in either direction becomes plausible.
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island: Common Questions
Who will win Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
The probabilities are very close: Henan Jianye win 36%, draw 36%, Qingdao Youth Island win 28%. Both teams have similar records and goal rates, so a draw is the likeliest outcome.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
There is a 54% chance of both teams scoring, based on both sides' recent defensive records and the fact that Henan have seen BTTS in all of their last five matches.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 52%, with three of the last five H2H meetings finishing under this line and both teams averaging around 1.3 goals scored per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 2 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island Resources
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Qingdao Youth Island Predictions
All Qingdao Youth Island fixtures & tips
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results