Hull City vs Everton Predictions
Premier League · England
Hull City
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Everton
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.3(+19% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Hull City and Everton Share Spoils in Four-Goal Thriller at MKM Stadium
Hull City and Everton played out a pulsating 2-2 draw at the MKM Stadium, with both sides taking turns to seize the initiative in a match packed with momentum swings. Despite Everton dominating possession with 65% and registering 15 shots (7 on target), Hull’s disciplined defensive setup and clinical finishing ensured they matched their visitors blow for blow. The hosts struck first after the break, only for Everton to respond with two quick goals, but Hull rallied to level matters in an entertaining second half. The match saw Hull take the lead in the 48th minute, but Everton’s superior control soon paid dividends as they equalized on 55 minutes and then took the lead in the 68th. Refusing to be cowed, Hull found a second wind and restored parity in the 74th minute. Both teams pressed for a winner, but resolute defending and missed opportunities meant the points were ultimately shared.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
48' — Goal
Hull City break the deadlock with a well-worked move, capitalizing on a set piece.
55' — Goal
Everton equalize quickly, finishing off a flowing attack to restore parity.
68' — Goal
Everton take the lead, capitalizing on sustained pressure and a defensive lapse from Hull.
74' — Goal
Hull City show character to level the score, with O. McBurnie finding the net.
81' — Yellow Card
Hull’s discipline tested as they pick up a second yellow card while defending late pressure.
Hull City
Hull City set up in a 5-4-1 formation, intent on frustrating Everton and hitting on the break. Despite conceding the lion’s share of possession, the Tigers were compact at the back and dangerous from set pieces, earning 7 corners and making the most of their 9 shots (5 on target). Their resilience was tested after falling behind, but they showed character to claw back a point in front of their home fans.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Everton
Everton controlled the tempo with 65% possession and looked the more progressive side in their 4-2-3-1 setup. They created more chances (15 shots, 7 on target) and responded well to setbacks, overturning a deficit to lead midway through the second half. However, lapses in concentration allowed Hull back into the game, and despite their attacking intent, they could not convert dominance into victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Hull City’s 5-4-1 formation was designed to absorb Everton’s pressure and strike on the counter or from set pieces—a tactic that paid off with their first goal and persistent threat from corners. The wing-backs provided width, but the midfield often dropped deep to form a compact block. Everton’s 4-2-3-1 allowed them to dominate possession and probe for openings, with their attacking midfielders interchanging to disrupt Hull’s shape. Substitutions in the second half injected fresh legs, but neither side shifted formation significantly, instead doubling down on their respective approaches. Set pieces and transitions proved decisive in a game of fine margins.
Turning Point
Hull’s equalizer in the 74th minute, which halted Everton’s momentum and ensured the hosts salvaged a draw.
Man of the Match
O. McBurnie
Scored the crucial equalizer and led Hull’s line with determination, embodying the team’s fighting spirit.
Hull City vs Everton: Match Preview
Hull City enter this home fixture in eighth, one point behind Everton, having conceded just four goals in five matches and kept two clean sheets in their last five. Their home record is particularly robust: two matches, two clean sheets, and only two goals scored, suggesting a conservative approach at the MKM Stadium. Everton, unbeaten in the league, have drawn both away games and boast the joint-best defensive record in the division (0.6 conceded per game).
The statistical matchup is defined by defensive structure and low goal volume. Hull's last five league games average just 1.6 total goals, while Everton's average is 1.8. Both sides have failed to score in two of their last five, and Everton's away matches have produced just two total goals. Set-piece threat is moderate—Hull average 5.6 corners per game, Everton 5.4—but neither side generates high shot quality, with Hull managing only 3.2 shots on target per match recently. Discipline could play a role: Hull average 3.6 yellows per game, well above Everton's 2.0.
Given these rates, the model expects a tactical contest with limited open-play chances and a high probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with the under 2.5 goals market strongly favoured by both teams' early-season profiles. Unless either attack finds an unexpected breakthrough, this should be decided by a single moment or set piece.
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Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
BTTS: Yes
39%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hull City vs Everton Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hull City vs Everton that most previews miss.
- 1Hull and Everton have combined for just three goals in their four home/away matches this season (Hull home: 2-0, 0-0; Everton away: 1-1, 0-0).
- 2Everton's matches average only 1.8 total goals, with 80% finishing under 2.5 goals.
- 3Hull average 3.6 yellow cards per match over their last five, the second-highest rate among mid-table sides.
Who do you think wins: Hull City vs Everton?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hull City vs Everton(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.28
The model assigns a 36% probability to the draw, above the 30% implied by bookmaker odds of 3.3. Both teams have drawn two of their last five league matches, and their scoring/conceding rates are nearly identical at 1.2 scored per game. With low season over 2.5 rates (Hull 40%, Everton 20%) and strong clean sheet rates (both 60%), a low-scoring stalemate is statistically favoured.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.67
Under 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hull's and 80% of Everton's league games so far. Both sides average just 1.2 goals scored per game and concede less than one, with Everton's away matches producing only two total goals in two games. The model's 66% probability for under 2.5 goals outpaces the odds-implied 60%.
Read more ↓
More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Hull City vs Everton Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-event contest between two defensively robust mid-table sides. Both Hull and Everton have built early-season momentum on clean sheets and disciplined shape, with their combined over 2.5 goal rate at just 30%. The draw is the most likely outcome, with neither attack showing the firepower to consistently break down compact defences.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Both teams average 1.2 goals scored per league game and concede less than one per match.
- →Hull and Everton each have a 60% clean sheet rate through five league matches.
Match Context
- →Everton's away games and Hull's home games have produced only three total goals in four combined matches.
🚩 Hull City vs Everton Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Hull City and 5.6 for Everton, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How Hull City and Everton Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hull City vs Everton Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hull Citylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Evertonlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hull's recent form is steady, with just one defeat in their last five league matches and a notable defensive record—two clean sheets and only four goals conceded. Everton are unbeaten in the league, drawing three of five and winning their last two across all competitions. Both sides have shown defensive resilience but limited attacking output.
Hull City vs Everton — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +60% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +60% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
What History Says: Hull City vs Everton
Everton have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning four of the last seven encounters, including a 3-2 away win in the FA Cup. However, Hull have taken points in two of the last three at home, and draws are not uncommon in this fixture. Goals have tended to flow more freely in the past, but recent league meetings have been tighter.
Hull City vs Everton Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
1
Hull City wins
2
Draws
4
Everton wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hull City vs Everton
The draw offers the clearest value edge, with the model's 36% probability well above the 30% implied by odds of 3.3. Under 2.5 goals is also a value play, as the 1.67 odds undervalue the 66% probability derived from both teams' defensive records and low-scoring trends. No significant edge is found in the BTTS market, with the odds closely matching the model's estimate.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hull City vs Everton
- ⚠️Early-season sample sizes (5 matches) limit confidence in established rates.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed.
- ⚠️Both teams' attacks have shown some variance in shot volume, which could swing a low-scoring match.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hull City 1–1 EvertonA 1-1 draw is the model's most probable outcome, underpinned by both sides' identical scoring rates (1.2 per game) and strong clean sheet records (60%). The single strongest data point is the combined three goals in their four home/away matches this season, highlighting the low-event nature of this matchup. The main risk is that one side capitalises on set pieces or an early error, breaking the expected deadlock.
Hull City vs Everton: Common Questions
Who will win Hull City vs Everton?
The model gives Everton a 40% chance of victory, Hull 24%, and the draw 36%. Both sides have similar defensive records and recent form, making the draw the most statistically likely outcome.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Hull City vs Everton?
There is a 66% probability of under 2.5 goals, based on both teams' low scoring rates and defensive solidity. Only 30% of their combined league matches have exceeded two goals so far this season.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Everton?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, with 'No' slightly favoured at 54%. Both teams have failed to score in two of their last five matches, and clean sheets are common in their recent records.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hull City vs Everton: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.