Lewes vs Cray Wanderers Predictions
FA Cup · England
Lewes
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Cray Wanderers
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Lewes vs Cray Wanderers: Match Preview
Lewes approach this FA Cup clash with momentum from back-to-back league wins, having scored five and conceded just one across their last two matches. Cray Wanderers have also started the campaign steadily, losing only once in their last five and taking points in four, including a recent 2-1 win over Eastbourne Borough. With no league table or home/away splits available, both teams’ early season form and the cup context suggest a cautious, evenly matched contest.
Statistically, both sides have produced similar attacking outputs: Lewes average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last five, while Cray Wanderers post 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded. The defensive numbers are close, and neither side has shown a consistent ability to keep clean sheets—Lewes have two in five, Cray just one. The H2H record is balanced, with four draws in the last ten meetings and a tendency for both teams to find the net, as seen in six of those games. Goal timing data reveals a second-half bias for Cray (six of their last seven goals after the break), suggesting the contest may open up late.
The model projects a low-scoring, competitive fixture with a slight edge to the draw, assigning a 37% probability to that outcome and 52% to under 2.5 goals. Both teams’ recent rates and the H2H pattern of close games support a 1-1 as the likeliest scoreline, with neither attack nor defence showing enough separation to justify a strong lean either way.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Lewes vs Cray Wanderers Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Lewes vs Cray Wanderers that most previews miss.
- 1Cray Wanderers have scored six of their last seven goals in the second half, indicating a late-game scoring trend.
- 2Four of the last ten head-to-head meetings have ended in draws, with two finishing 2-2 and one 1-1.
- 3Lewes have failed to score in two of their last five matches, but have also kept two clean sheets in that span.
Who do you think wins: Lewes vs Cray Wanderers?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Lewes vs Cray Wanderers(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
With both sides averaging just over a goal per game in their last five and four of the last ten H2H meetings ending level, the 1-1 is the single most probable outcome in the model's distribution.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recent averages (Lewes 1.2 scored/1.4 conceded, Cray 1.4/1.0) and a 52% model probability for under 2.5 goals point to a slightly suppressed goal environment, especially with three of the last five H2H meetings finishing with two or fewer goals.
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More FA Cup Predictions
The Case For This Lewes vs Cray Wanderers Prediction
Statistical rates point to a tightly contested FA Cup tie, with both Lewes and Cray Wanderers showing similar scoring and concession profiles in their recent outings. The model expects a low-scoring draw to be the modal outcome, underpinned by the sides’ near-identical attacking outputs and a pattern of close H2H results.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head: four draws in the last ten meetings, including two 2-2s and a 1-1.
Defence
- →Lewes average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Cray Wanderers have seen both teams score in four of their last five outings.
How Lewes and Cray Wanderers Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Lewes vs Cray Wanderers Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Leweslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cray Wandererslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Lewes have rebounded from a heavy 0-4 defeat with two straight wins, scoring five and conceding just one in those matches. Cray Wanderers are unbeaten in four of their last five, with a recent 2-1 home win and a consistent ability to find the net. Both sides have shown intermittent defensive solidity but lack a dominant run.
Lewes vs Cray Wanderers — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Lewes vs Cray Wanderers
The last ten meetings between Lewes and Cray Wanderers have been closely contested, with Lewes winning four, Cray two, and four draws. Draws are especially common, including two 2-2s and a 1-1 in the last five encounters. Both teams have scored in six of those ten matches, underlining the balanced nature of this fixture.
Lewes vs Cray Wanderers Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Lewes wins
4
Draws
2
Cray Wanderers wins
Things to Watch: Lewes vs Cray Wanderers
- ⚠️No season-long home/away splits or league table data available; all rates are inferred from recent matches and H2H.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges and expected value cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Small sample size from early season form may not fully reflect true team strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Lewes 1–1 Cray WanderersA 1-1 draw is the model’s most probable outcome, driven by both teams’ nearly identical scoring and concession rates over their last five matches and a head-to-head history littered with stalemates. The biggest risk to this projection is Cray’s second-half scoring surge, which could turn a tight game if Lewes fade late.
Lewes vs Cray Wanderers: Common Questions
Who will win Lewes vs Cray Wanderers?
The model gives Lewes a 36% chance of winning, Cray Wanderers a 27% chance, and the draw is the most likely single outcome at 37%. Both teams have shown similar recent form and their head-to-head record is balanced.
Will both teams score in Lewes vs Cray Wanderers?
There is a 55% probability of both teams scoring, with Cray Wanderers seeing BTTS in four of their last five games and six of the last ten H2H meetings featuring goals for both sides.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Lewes vs Cray Wanderers?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 52%, with both teams averaging just over a goal per game recently and three of the last five H2H meetings finishing with two or fewer goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Lewes vs Cray Wanderers: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.