Livingston vs Kilmarnock Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Livingston
Full Time
1 - 4
AI predicted 1 - 2
Kilmarnock
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 5.4(+17% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Kilmarnock Storm Back to Crush Livingston 4-1 in Premiership Finale
Kilmarnock delivered a commanding display at The Home of the Set Fare Arena, overturning an early deficit to thump Livingston 4-1 on the final day of the Scottish Premiership season. Despite falling behind in the 19th minute, the visitors responded with a flurry of goals, seizing control before half-time and never looking back. Livingston started brightly and took the lead, but Kilmarnock's superior attacking intent and clinical finishing proved decisive as they struck twice before the break and added two more in a rampant second half. The match was a tale of shifting momentum: Livingston's initial energy faded as Kilmarnock grew into the contest, ultimately outshooting their hosts 14-9 and matching them for shots on target (4 apiece). The away side's midfield trio dictated play and their pressing forced errors, while Livingston struggled to regain their early composure. Kilmarnock's resilience and ruthless edge ensured a comprehensive victory to close their campaign.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 4
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
19' — Goal
Robbie Muirhead fires Livingston ahead after a bright opening spell.
24' — Goal
Kilmarnock equalize quickly, shifting the momentum.
34' — Goal
Kilmarnock take the lead, capitalizing on defensive lapses from Livingston.
53' — Goal
Kilmarnock extend their lead early in the second half, putting the game out of reach.
58' — Goal
Kilmarnock seal the win with their fourth goal, capping a dominant display.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Livingston pick up one yellow; Kilmarnock see two players booked in a competitive midfield battle.
Livingston
Livingston began with promise, capitalizing on their early possession advantage (52%) to take the lead in the 19th minute. However, their defensive frailties quickly surfaced as they conceded four unanswered goals. Despite winning six corners and showing flashes of attacking intent, Livingston were unable to stem the tide after Kilmarnock's equalizer, and their midfield was overrun as the game progressed. The hosts' inability to convert chances or regain control after falling behind proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock responded superbly to going behind, showing character and tactical discipline. Their midfield trio controlled the tempo, and the front line capitalized on Livingston's defensive errors. With 14 shots (4 on target), Kilmarnock were efficient and ruthless, scoring twice in each half. Their defensive unit, despite conceding early, tightened up and limited Livingston to few clear chances after the opener. The visitors' pressing and transition play were key to their emphatic win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Livingston lined up in a 4-2-3-1, seeking to control midfield and push forward early. Their initial pressing and width created problems for Kilmarnock, but defensive vulnerabilities soon emerged. Kilmarnock, in a 4-3-2-1, gradually asserted themselves, using their midfield trio to disrupt Livingston's rhythm and launch quick transitions. After falling behind, Kilmarnock's pressing forced turnovers and their attacking midfielders exploited spaces between the lines. The visitors' tactical discipline was evident as they compressed space in midfield and attacked with purpose, particularly after the interval. Livingston's substitutions and tactical tweaks failed to stem the tide, as Kilmarnock's shape and energy proved decisive.
Turning Point
Kilmarnock's equalizer in the 24th minute shifted the momentum, sparking a dominant spell that Livingston never recovered from.
Man of the Match
Joe Hugill
Instrumental in the comeback with a goal and relentless attacking presence, leading Kilmarnock's line superbly.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 2.00
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Livingston vs Kilmarnock Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Livingston vs Kilmarnock?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Livingston vs Kilmarnock(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 5.4
Model probability for under 2.5 goals (0.36) is much higher than the implied probability from odds (0.19), creating a significant value edge, despite both teams' high over 2.5 season rates.
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The Case For This Livingston vs Kilmarnock Prediction
Kilmarnock travel to Livingston with stronger recent form and a favorable head-to-head record. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities but Kilmarnock's attack has been more consistent, while Livingston have struggled to convert home advantage into wins. Expect a competitive match with Kilmarnock more likely to edge it, but with a risk of a draw if Livingston can stabilize defensively.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Kilmarnock have won 2 straight and scored 6 goals in their last 2 matches.
Attack
- →Both teams average over 2.5 goals per game this season.
Defence
- →Livingston have only 1 home win all season and the league's worst defensive record.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Kilmarnock have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning 5 of the last 10.
🚩 Livingston vs Kilmarnock Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Livingston and 5 for Kilmarnock, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 52%.
How Livingston and Kilmarnock Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Livingston vs Kilmarnock Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Livingstonlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Kilmarnocklast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Livingston's recent form has been patchy, with just one win in their last five and a heavy defeat to Dundee last time out. Kilmarnock, in contrast, have found momentum with back-to-back 3-0 wins, suggesting stronger attacking output and improved confidence heading into this fixture.
Livingston vs Kilmarnock — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.0 conceded/game
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65.79% of games this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.0 goals/game
What History Says: Livingston vs Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock have the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning half of the last 10 meetings and remaining unbeaten in the last three. Scorelines have tended to be low to moderate, with several draws and Kilmarnock clean sheets, hinting at a tactical edge for the visitors.
Livingston vs Kilmarnock Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Livingston wins
3
Draws
6
Kilmarnock wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Livingston vs Kilmarnock
The standout value lies with under 2.5 goals at long odds, as the model gives this a much higher chance than the market suggests despite both teams' high over 2.5 rates. No clear value on the 1x2 market, as all selections are either fairly priced or overvalued relative to model probabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Livingston vs Kilmarnock
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, lineups) are missing for Kilmarnock.
- ⚠️Both teams have high variance in defensive performance.
- ⚠️Season is ending; motivation and rotation risk may affect lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Livingston vs Kilmarnock: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.