Livorno vs Empoli Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Livorno
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Empoli
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Livorno vs Empoli: Match Preview
Livorno approach this friendly on the back of a win and a draw in their opening pre-season fixtures, scoring three times and conceding twice across those two matches. Empoli have mirrored that record, also taking four points from their first two friendlies, but with even fewer goals—just two scored and one conceded. With neither side having played away from home so far this summer, the usual home advantage metrics are absent, and both managers are likely to continue rotating their squads ahead of the competitive campaign.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by modest attacking output and a recent emphasis on defensive solidity. Livorno's last five matches average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Empoli's figures are 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, with both sides keeping two clean sheets in that span. The lack of high shot volumes (Empoli average 7.2 shots per game) and a combined four BTTS results in their last ten matches suggest a low-scoring pattern. Discipline could play a minor role, as Empoli have averaged 1.6 yellow cards per match in their last five.
Given these underlying rates and the absence of strong attacking signals, the model projects a low-event contest, with the most likely outcome a 1-1 draw. The probabilities are weighted towards under 2.5 goals (58%) and a moderate chance of both teams scoring (48%), reflecting the recent trend of closely contested, low-scoring games for both sides.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Livorno vs Empoli Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Livorno vs Empoli that most previews miss.
- 1Empoli's last five matches have averaged just 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
- 2Livorno's two pre-season home friendlies have produced only 1.5 goals per match on average.
- 3Both teams have failed to score in one of their last five matches, underlining the low scoring risk.
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The Case For This Livorno vs Empoli Prediction
Both Livorno and Empoli enter this friendly with similar recent results and modest attacking output, suggesting a contest defined more by structure than by open play. Livorno's last five matches average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Empoli's recent run is even tighter at 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game. The statistical shape points to a low-scoring draw as the likeliest outcome, with neither side showing a consistent edge in attack or defence. The matchup is shaped by both teams' recent defensive reliability—each has kept two clean sheets in their last five—and a lack of high-scoring games. Livorno's home friendlies have produced just 1.5 goals per game this pre-season, and Empoli's two friendlies have seen only three goals in total. Both sides have failed to score once in their last five, and Empoli's shot volume (7.2 per game) is not translating into a high goal return. Set-piece and discipline data are limited, but Empoli's last five include 1.6 yellow cards per match, hinting at a slightly higher risk of bookings if the game becomes cagey. Given the underlying rates and the lack of strong attacking signals, the model expects a tactical, low-event match. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with the distribution skewed towards under 2.5 goals and a moderate likelihood of both teams scoring. The absence of meaningful home/away splits (no away games played by either side this pre-season) and limited H2H data further reinforce the conservative expectation.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Livorno average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in their last five matches.
- →Empoli have kept two clean sheets in their last five and average 1.0 goal scored per game.
Match Context
- →Both teams have only played home matches this pre-season, limiting home/away split insights.
🚩 Livorno vs Empoli Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Livorno and 5 for Empoli, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Livorno and Empoli Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Livorno vs Empoli Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Livornolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Empolilast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Livorno have started pre-season with a win and a draw, averaging 1.5 goals per game but conceding at a similar rate. Empoli's results mirror Livorno's, but with even fewer goals scored and conceded—just two for and one against in their opening friendlies. Both sides have shown defensive discipline, each keeping two clean sheets in their last five outings.
Livorno vs Empoli — Last 2 Matches
What History Says: Livorno vs Empoli
Empoli have the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning 2-0 away in 2020 and drawing 1-1 at home the previous season. Both matches were tight, low-scoring affairs, in line with the current statistical outlook for this fixture.
Livorno vs Empoli Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
Livorno wins
1
Draws
1
Empoli wins
Things to Watch: Livorno vs Empoli
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available for value analysis.
- ⚠️Both teams have not played away this pre-season, reducing reliability of home/away projections.
- ⚠️Limited head-to-head data (only two matches, last in 2020) and no current league standings.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Livorno 1–1 EmpoliA 1-1 draw is the statistical baseline, driven by both teams' low scoring rates (Livorno 1.6, Empoli 1.0 per game over the last five) and a lack of away data to suggest a clear edge. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if either side's attack finds rhythm against rotated defences, but the pre-season evidence points to a cautious, even contest.
Livorno vs Empoli: Common Questions
Who will win Livorno vs Empoli?
The model gives Empoli a 36% chance of winning, Livorno a 24% chance, and a draw is the most likely outcome at 40%. Both teams have similar recent form and low scoring rates, making a draw the statistical favourite.
Will both teams score in Livorno vs Empoli?
There is a 48% probability that both teams will score, slightly below even money. Both sides have seen BTTS in two of their last five matches, and recent head-to-heads have also been low scoring.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in Livorno vs Empoli?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 58% probability, reflecting both teams' modest attacking output and solid defensive records in recent matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Livorno vs Empoli: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.