Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Ludogorets
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Cherno More Varna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna
Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna: Match Preview
Ludogorets arrive in strong form, unbeaten in their last eight competitive matches (W6 D2) and on a three-game winning streak, including a 3-0 friendly victory last time out. Cherno More Varna have stabilised after back-to-back league defeats, picking up a win and two draws in their last three, and boast an unbeaten away record this season (W4 D0 L0). With no league table context provided, both sides appear to be using this friendly to fine-tune their squads, but recent form suggests neither will roll over easily.
The statistical matchup is defined by Ludogorets' high scoring rate—2.75 goals per game, with 75% of matches over 2.5 goals—contrasted by Cherno More Varna's defensive discipline, conceding just 0.46 goals per game and keeping clean sheets in over 60% of outings. However, Cherno More Varna's away matches average only 2.75 goals, and their last five games have seen just 1.4 goals conceded per match. The head-to-head record is full of low-scoring draws, with five of the last ten meetings ending 0-0 or 1-1, and the last two at Ludogorets' ground finishing level.
Given these rates, the model expects a cautious, balanced game with limited clear-cut chances. Ludogorets' attack will test Cherno More Varna's defensive structure, but the away side's ability to keep matches tight—especially on the road—should restrict the goal count. The likeliest outcome is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline narrowly the most probable, reflecting both sides' season-long averages and the recurring H2H patterns.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna that most previews miss.
- 1Cherno More Varna have conceded just one goal in four away matches this season (0.25 per game).
- 2Five of the last ten H2H meetings finished 0-0 or 1-1, highlighting a strong draw trend.
- 3Ludogorets have scored in every match this season but have only kept one clean sheet in their last five.
Who do you think wins: Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides' season-long goal rates point to a low-scoring contest: Ludogorets see 2.75 goals for and 1.5 against per game, but Cherno More Varna's matches average just 1.92 total goals, with only 30.8% over 2.5. The H2H record features five 0-0 or 1-1 draws in the last ten meetings.
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Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 scoreline is the model's most probable outcome (19%), supported by both teams' defensive solidity and a high draw rate in recent H2H encounters.
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The Case For This Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, tightly contested friendly between two sides with contrasting season profiles: Ludogorets' attack is prolific at home, but Cherno More Varna's defensive record on the road is among the best in their sample. The draw is a live outcome, with neither side showing a clear edge in recent form or H2H matchups.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Ludogorets average 2.75 goals scored per game this season, but Cherno More Varna concede just 0.46 per match.
- →Cherno More Varna are unbeaten away (W4 D0 L0), conceding only once in four away games.
Match Context
- →Five of the last ten H2H meetings ended 0-0 or 1-1.
How Ludogorets and Cherno More Varna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Ludogoretslast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cherno More Varnalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ludogorets are unbeaten in their last five (W3 D2), scoring nine and conceding four, with no failures to score in that span. Cherno More Varna's recent form is more mixed (W1 D2 L2), but they have tightened up defensively, conceding just one goal in their last two matches and keeping one clean sheet in five.
Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Strengths
- +61.54% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna
The last ten meetings are evenly split, with three wins apiece and four draws. Notably, five of those ten have ended 0-0 or 1-1, and neither side has managed back-to-back wins in the series. The fixture at Ludogorets' ground has produced two consecutive draws.
Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Ludogorets wins
4
Draws
3
Cherno More Varna wins
Things to Watch: Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges can be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent match stats (shots, possession, corners) are incomplete for both teams.
- ⚠️Standings and league context are missing, limiting motivation analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Ludogorets 1–1 Cherno More VarnaThe model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, driven by Cherno More Varna's exceptional away defensive record (just one goal conceded in four away games) and the high frequency of low-scoring draws in this fixture's recent history. The main threat to this scenario comes from Ludogorets' attacking output at home, which could tip the balance if Cherno More Varna's defence falters.
Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna: Common Questions
Who will win Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
The model gives Ludogorets a 36% chance of victory, Cherno More Varna 28%, and a draw 36%. Both teams are in solid form, but the statistical edge is minimal, making a draw the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
There is a 51% probability that both teams will score, based on recent averages and a high BTTS rate in Ludogorets' matches (4 of last 5), but Cherno More Varna's strong defensive record tempers this slightly.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna?
Yes, the model estimates a 59% probability for under 2.5 goals, reflecting Cherno More Varna's low concession rate (0.46 per game) and the H2H trend of low-scoring draws.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.