CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
CSKA Moscow
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Arsenal Tula
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Arsenal Tula Win
Recommended Bets: CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula: Match Preview
CSKA Moscow arrive off a 1-3 home defeat and have just one win in their last five, struggling for defensive solidity with 1.6 goals conceded per match over that span. Arsenal Tula, by contrast, are fresh from a 2-0 away win and boast the league's most productive away attack, scoring 15 times in five road games this season. Both sides have negative goal differences, but Arsenal Tula's away form (W3 D2 L0) stands out against CSKA's patchy home record (W2 D4 L2).
The statistical matchup tilts towards goals: both teams average over 1.6 conceded per game, and their over 2.5 goal rates exceed 60%. CSKA's attack has been more reliable at home (15 goals in 8), but their inability to keep clean sheets (0% season clean sheet rate) is a persistent issue. Arsenal Tula's defensive record is similarly porous, yet their shot efficiency away from home (15 goals from 5 matches) gives them a slight edge, especially as CSKA's shot volume has not translated into defensive stability.
Given these rates, the model expects an open game with a high likelihood of both teams scoring and a total above the 2.5 goal line. Arsenal Tula's unbeaten away run and CSKA's defensive struggles drive the forecast for a narrow away win, with the likeliest scoreline 2-1 to the visitors. The main risk is the volatility inherent in friendlies and the possibility of experimental lineups, but the underlying rates point to goals and an away edge.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula that most previews miss.
- 1Arsenal Tula's away matches average 4.8 total goals per game (15 scored, 9 conceded in 5).
- 2CSKA Moscow have failed to keep a clean sheet in all 13 matches this season, conceding at least once every time.
- 3Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of CSKA's and 64% of Arsenal Tula's matches this season.
Who do you think wins: CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Arsenal Tula Win
Arsenal Tula have a 41% modelled probability of winning, supported by an unbeaten away record (W3 D2 L0, 15 scored, 9 conceded) and CSKA Moscow's lack of clean sheets all season.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides average 2+ goals conceded per game and have over 2.5 goals in 62–63% of matches this season, indicating a high-probability goal environment.
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BTTS: Yes
CSKA have failed to score just once in their last five, while Arsenal Tula have scored in four of their last five away games; neither side keeps clean sheets reliably.
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More Friendlies Clubs Predictions
The Case For This CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula Prediction
Statistically, this fixture sets up as a high-variance, open contest between two sides whose defensive frailties outweigh their attacking inconsistencies. Arsenal Tula's away record is a key differentiator, with 15 goals scored and none lost on the road this season, while CSKA Moscow have yet to keep a clean sheet in any competition. The distribution of goals in both teams' recent matches points towards multiple scoring opportunities for both sides.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Arsenal Tula are unbeaten away from home this season (W3 D2 L0, 15 scored, 9 conceded).
- →CSKA Moscow have not kept a clean sheet in any of their 13 matches this season.
- →Both teams average over 1.6 goals conceded per game, with over 2.5 goals in more than 60% of their fixtures.
🚩 CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for CSKA Moscow and 5.2 for Arsenal Tula, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
CSKA Moscowlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Arsenal Tulalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
CSKA Moscow have struggled for consistency, recording just one win in their last five matches and conceding eight times in that span. Arsenal Tula, while also inconsistent, have been much stronger away from home, picking up three wins and two draws in their last five road fixtures, including a recent 2-0 win over Lokomotiv.
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula
The head-to-head record is balanced, with both teams winning four of the last ten encounters and two draws. The most recent meeting ended 1-1, and both teams have scored in six of the last ten matchups, suggesting a competitive and open fixture.
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
CSKA Moscow wins
2
Draws
4
Arsenal Tula wins
Things to Watch: CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️No current league standings or venue data; motivation and context are inferred from form and season records.
- ⚠️Recent matches are a small sample and friendlies may distort competitive intent.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
CSKA Moscow 1–2 Arsenal TulaThe model projects a 2-1 win for Arsenal Tula, grounded in their unbeaten away record and CSKA Moscow's ongoing defensive issues. The strongest data point is Arsenal Tula's 15 goals in five away games, while the main caveat is the unpredictable nature of friendlies, where tactical experimentation could disrupt established trends.
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula: Common Questions
Who will win CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Arsenal Tula are given a 41% chance of victory by the model, compared to 26% for CSKA Moscow and 33% for the draw. This is supported by Arsenal Tula's unbeaten away form and superior attacking output on the road.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
There is a 57% probability that both teams will score, as neither side has shown defensive reliability (CSKA 0% clean sheet rate, Arsenal Tula 9%) and both average over 1.6 goals conceded per game.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Yes, the model assigns a 62% chance to over 2.5 goals, reflecting both teams' high concession rates and the fact that over 2.5 has landed in more than 60% of their matches this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.