Llapi vs Shkendija Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Llapi
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Shkendija
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Shkendija Win
Match Result
5.5/10Llapi Edge Past 10-Man Shkendija in Tight Friendly
Llapi claimed a narrow 1-0 victory over Shkendija in a closely contested friendly, with the decisive goal arriving early in the first half. The match was marked by a pivotal red card for the visitors, which left Shkendija with a mountain to climb for much of the contest. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Shkendija battled valiantly, but ultimately could not breach the resolute Llapi defense. The only goal of the match came in the 17th minute, giving Llapi a lead they would not relinquish. With no further goals and limited attacking statistics available, the game settled into a tactical battle, especially after Shkendija were reduced to ten men. Llapi managed the game well, seeing out the victory to the final whistle.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
17' — Goal
Llapi take the lead with the only goal of the match.
N/A' — Red Card
Shkendija reduced to ten men, shifting the momentum firmly to Llapi.
Llapi
Llapi started brightly, capitalizing on their early momentum to take the lead in the 17th minute. From there, they managed the game with discipline, especially after gaining a numerical advantage. While the lack of detailed statistics makes it difficult to assess their attacking output, their ability to hold onto the lead and keep a clean sheet speaks to their defensive organization and game management. The hosts showed composure and control, particularly after Shkendija went down to ten men, ensuring there were few scares as they closed out the match.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Shkendija
Shkendija found themselves on the back foot after conceding in the 17th minute and their task became even harder following a red card. Down to ten men, they showed spirit and resilience, preventing Llapi from extending their lead, but struggled to create clear chances to equalize. Their defensive effort with a man down was commendable, but the early deficit and numerical disadvantage ultimately proved too much to overcome.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both teams' formations and lineups unavailable, tactical observations are drawn from the match flow. Llapi's early goal allowed them to adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on maintaining their lead and exploiting the man advantage after Shkendija's red card. Shkendija, forced into a reactive posture, concentrated on defensive solidity and damage limitation, rarely threatening on the break. The red card fundamentally altered the tactical landscape, with Llapi controlling possession and territory, while Shkendija sat deep and sought to frustrate the hosts. Set pieces and wide play likely became less prominent as the match wore on, with both sides settling into their respective roles.
Turning Point
The red card to Shkendija, which handed Llapi a numerical advantage and allowed them to control the remainder of the match.
Man of the Match
Llapi Goalscorer (minute 17)
Scored the match-winning goal and set the tone for Llapi's victory.
Llapi vs Shkendija: Match Preview
Llapi enter this friendly in dire need of a reset, having suffered four defeats in their last five matches, with a pair of 0-4 losses sandwiching a solitary 4-0 win at Vushtrria. Their current streak is two straight defeats, and the mood in the camp will be fragile after conceding 14 goals in that stretch. Shkendija, meanwhile, are in the midst of a positive run, unbeaten in four and fresh off a 3-0 win away at Kamjani. Their attack has been firing, with 12 goals in their last five, and they have not failed to score in any of those outings.
Statistically, the contrast is sharpest in the attacking and defensive numbers. Llapi's recent defensive record is porous—2.8 goals conceded per game over the last five—while Shkendija have averaged 2.4 goals scored. The visitors also boast a 70% over 2.5 goals rate for the season, and have found the net in both halves regularly, with four first-half and five second-half goals in their last five. Set-piece and discipline data are lacking, but neither side has shown a particular edge or weakness in bookings from the available match reports.
The model expects Shkendija's form and attacking confidence to dictate the pattern, with Llapi's defensive fragility likely to be exposed again. While the hosts did show they can score in their 4-0 win, the overwhelming trend is one of struggle, and unless they can rediscover that attacking spark, Shkendija's momentum should carry them to a narrow but deserved win.
How Llapi and Shkendija Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Llapi vs Shkendija Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Llapilast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Shkendijalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Llapi's form line is deeply troubling, with four losses in their last five and a defensive record that has seen them ship 14 goals in that span. Their only bright spot was a 4-0 away win, but otherwise they've failed to score in three of five. Shkendija, on the other hand, are unbeaten in four, have scored in every recent match, and arrive with real attacking momentum.
Llapi vs Shkendija — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +60% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
Llapi vs Shkendija Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Llapi vs Shkendija that most previews miss.
- 1Llapi have conceded four goals in three of their last five matches, with an average of 2.8 goals against per game in that spell.
- 2Shkendija have scored in every one of their last five matches, averaging 2.4 goals per game and posting two clean sheets.
- 3Llapi have failed to score in three of their last five, but their only win in that stretch was a 4-0 away victory—highlighting their volatility.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Llapi vs Shkendija?
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The Case For This Llapi vs Shkendija Prediction
Llapi limp into this friendly battered by a brutal run of form, losing four of their last five matches and conceding four goals in three of those defeats. Shkendija, by contrast, are riding a wave of momentum, with three wins and a draw from their last five and a potent attack averaging 2.4 goals per outing. The contrast in recent fortunes is stark, and it sets up a clash where confidence and sharpness are likely to play a decisive role.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Shkendija have scored at least twice in four of their last five games and failed to score in none.
Defence
- →Llapi have conceded 14 goals in their last five matches, losing four times.
Match Context
- →Llapi have failed to score in three of their last five, but did manage a 4-0 away win in their only recent bright spot.
Where the Model Sees Value: Llapi vs Shkendija(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Shkendija Win
Shkendija have won three of their last five and have not failed to score in any of those matches, while Llapi have lost four of five, conceding 2.8 goals per game in that stretch. Momentum and attacking output strongly favour the visitors.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen high-scoring games lately: Llapi's last five have averaged 3.8 goals (mainly against them), and Shkendija's have averaged 3.6. The away side's 70% season over 2.5 rate reinforces the likelihood of goals.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Shkendija have scored in every one of their last five, and despite Llapi's struggles, they did post a four-goal outing recently. Defensive frailty on both sides makes BTTS a live option.
Read more ↓
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What History Says: Llapi vs Shkendija
There is no head-to-head data available for these sides, so no direct matchup trends or recurring scorelines can be identified. This increases uncertainty around how their styles will interact.
Llapi vs Shkendija Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Llapi wins
0
Draws
0
Shkendija wins
Things to Watch: Llapi vs Shkendija
- ⚠️No head-to-head data is available for these teams, reducing certainty around stylistic matchups.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available, so value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Both teams' underlying stats (shots, possession) are missing, so goal and set piece predictions are less robust.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Llapi 1–2 ShkendijaShkendija's recent momentum—three wins and a draw in their last five, with 12 goals scored—makes them strong favourites to edge a high-scoring contest, with a 2-1 away win the likeliest outcome. The single strongest data point is Llapi's defensive collapse, conceding 14 in five games. The biggest risk is that Llapi rediscover their attacking touch from their outlier 4-0 win, making this more unpredictable than the form lines suggest.
Llapi vs Shkendija: Common Questions
Who will win Llapi vs Shkendija?
The model gives Shkendija a 48% chance of victory, compared to 19% for Llapi and 33% for the draw. Shkendija's recent form—three wins and a draw in five—makes them the favourites.
Will both teams score in Llapi vs Shkendija?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, as Shkendija have scored in every one of their last five and Llapi, despite their struggles, did net four in their only recent win.
Can Llapi turn around their poor form?
Llapi have lost four of their last five, conceding 14 goals, but did manage a 4-0 win at Vushtrria. While their overall momentum is negative, that outlier suggests some potential for a surprise if they can replicate that performance.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Llapi vs Shkendija: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.