Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
Los Angeles Galaxy
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
New England Revolution
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.7(+18% edge)
Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution: Match Preview
Los Angeles Galaxy enter this fixture 13th in the table, having drawn three of their last five matches and struggling for consistency at Dignity Health Sports Park (3 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses at home). New England Revolution sit 4th but have taken just 8 points from 9 away games, with a mixed recent run (DWLLD) and a notable away win at DC United. Both sides are in need of points: Galaxy to close the gap to mid-table, Revolution to maintain a playoff push.
Statistically, the matchup is finely balanced. Galaxy's home games average 2.36 goals (12 scored, 14 conceded in 11), while Revolution away matches average 2.89 (11 scored, 15 conceded in 9). Revolution generate more shots (16.4 per game last 5, 57% possession) but have struggled to convert that into away results. Galaxy have improved defensively with 2 clean sheets in their last 5, but their attack remains blunt (0.8 goals per game in that span). Both teams' season over 2.5 goal rates are high (Galaxy 59%, Revolution 62%), yet recent matches trend lower for Galaxy.
The model projects a tight contest, with a 1-1 draw the likeliest scoreline. Both teams' underlying rates suggest neither has a decisive edge: Galaxy's home attack and Revolution's away defence are both below league average, while Revolution's shot volume is offset by inefficiency. The draw is the value selection, with moderate confidence in both teams scoring but a lower probability of a goal-fest than the season averages suggest.
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution that most previews miss.
- 1Galaxy have drawn 8 of 22 league matches this season, including 3 of their last 5.
- 2Revolution's away games average 3.11 total goals, but they've failed to score more than once in 6 of 9 on the road.
- 3Galaxy's last 5 have produced just 8 total goals (1.6 per match), well below their season average.
Who do you think wins: Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.8
The model assigns a 32% probability to the draw, while the market implies just 27%, creating an +18% edge. Both teams have drawn 8 and 4 times respectively this season, and their recent form (Galaxy: 3 draws in 5, Revolution: 2 in 5) supports a tight contest.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.35
While both sides have over 2.5 rates above 59%, the recent scoring averages (Galaxy 0.8, Revolution 1.4 per last 5) and defensive improvement (Galaxy: 2 clean sheets in last 5) suggest the under is slightly undervalued at these odds.
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More Major League Soccer Predictions
The Case For This Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Prediction
This fixture pits a mid-table Los Angeles Galaxy side with patchy home form against a New England Revolution team whose away record is inconsistent but whose overall season rates are stronger. Both teams' underlying scoring and concession rates point to a balanced, moderately high-scoring environment, but recent shot and goal trends suggest a cagey opening and a strong likelihood of both sides finding the net. The draw is the value angle, with neither side's strengths or weaknesses dominant enough to tilt the probabilities decisively.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Galaxy's last 5 matches have averaged 1.6 total goals, Revolution's 2.8, but both have seen a drop in first-half scoring.
Defence
- →Galaxy average just 1.09 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per home game, while Revolution average 1.22 scored and 1.67 conceded away.
Match Context
- →Both teams have drawn multiple recent matches: Galaxy 3 of last 5, Revolution 2 of last 5.
🚩 Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Los Angeles Galaxy and 5.3 for New England Revolution, for an expected total of 9.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 66% · Over 10.5: 41%.
How Los Angeles Galaxy and New England Revolution Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Los Angeles Galaxylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
New England Revolutionlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Galaxy's recent form is mixed, with a 'DWLDD' run and just one win in their last five, but three draws showing a tendency for tight matches. Revolution have also been inconsistent, with a 'DWLLD' string and only one win in their last five, though their 3-0 away win at DC United stands out. Both sides are struggling to put together sustained momentum.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 57% avg
What History Says: Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution
The last 10 meetings have been high-scoring, averaging over 3 goals per match, but the results are nearly split: Galaxy have 5 wins, Revolution 4, and only one draw. The most recent H2H was in 2022, limiting its direct relevance, but the historical pattern suggests goals and little dominance by either side.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Los Angeles Galaxy wins
1
Draws
4
New England Revolution wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution
The draw price at 3.7 offers the clearest value, with the model's 32% probability well above the market's 27% implied. The under 2.5 is also slightly undervalued, as Galaxy's recent matches have been lower scoring than their season average. BTTS 'yes' is priced efficiently, with little edge at current odds.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution
- ⚠️Galaxy's home attack is volatile: 0-3 vs LAFC, then 1-0 vs San Jose, with shot volumes fluctuating.
- ⚠️Revolution's away defence is leaky (15 conceded in 9), but recent clean sheet at DC United hints at possible improvement.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but both sides have rotated lineups recently; late team news could shift probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Los Angeles Galaxy 1–1 New England RevolutionA 1-1 draw is the statistically likeliest outcome, underpinned by both teams' moderate scoring rates and Galaxy's recent tendency to share points. The strongest data point is the high draw rate for Galaxy (36% of matches), but if Revolution's attack converts their shot volume at a higher rate, the visitors could edge it. Conversely, if Galaxy's defence regresses, a higher-scoring draw or away win becomes more plausible.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution: Common Questions
Who will win Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution?
The model gives Los Angeles Galaxy a 36% chance to win, New England Revolution a 32% chance, and the draw 32%. With both teams showing inconsistent form and high draw rates, the draw is the most probable single outcome.
Will both teams score in Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution?
There is a 60% probability of both teams scoring, supported by Revolution's high shots per game (16.4 last 5) and Galaxy's defensive record (only 18% clean sheets this season). However, Galaxy have failed to score in 2 of their last 5.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in this match?
The model estimates a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of under, reflecting both teams' season-long high over 2.5 rates (Galaxy 59%, Revolution 62%). Recent Galaxy matches, however, have trended lower scoring.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Resources
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New England Revolution Predictions
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Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Major League Soccer Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results