San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
San Jose Earthquakes
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Real Salt Lake
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake: Match Preview
San Jose Earthquakes enter this fixture with a five-match unbeaten run (DDDWD), sitting 4th in the table and looking to consolidate their playoff position. Their recent run has featured a string of draws, but they remain tough to beat, especially at home, where they have scored 26 goals in 15 matches. Real Salt Lake, by contrast, sit 10th and have struggled for consistency, especially away from home, where they have just two wins and a -10 goal difference.
The statistical matchup is shaped by both teams’ willingness to attack and defensive vulnerabilities. San Jose average 1.73 goals scored per game this season, and their last five matches have all seen both teams score, with a 1.6/1.2 goals for/against split. RSL’s away defence has conceded 27 in 15, and their clean sheet rate is just 10% for the season. Both sides generate a healthy shot volume (SJ 14.8, RSL 13.4 per match in the last five), and corners are high (SJ 6.8, RSL 4.0), suggesting sustained attacking phases. Discipline is moderate, with both teams averaging under two yellows per game recently.
Given these rates, the model expects a match with multiple goals and a strong chance of both teams scoring. San Jose’s superior home record and more reliable attack make them favourites, but RSL’s recent 3-1 away win at Kansas City and a history of competitive H2H meetings mean the visitors cannot be discounted. Expect a 2-1 or 2-2 type game, with the likeliest edge coming from San Jose’s home attacking output against a porous RSL away defence.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake that most previews miss.
- 1San Jose have seen both teams score in each of their last five matches, with a 100% BTTS rate over that span.
- 2Real Salt Lake have lost 10 of 15 away games, conceding 1.8 goals per away match this season.
- 3The last ten H2H meetings are split 4-4-2, but six of those have seen three or more goals.
Who do you think wins: San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average over 1.5 goals scored per game this season (San Jose 1.73, RSL 1.5), and 60%+ of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals (SJ 53%, RSL 67%), with recent H2H and last 5 match data showing consistent BTTS and multi-goal games.
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BTTS: Yes
San Jose have seen BTTS in all of their last five matches, and RSL in three of five, with both teams averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five; neither side has a strong clean sheet rate (SJ 23%, RSL 10% for the season).
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The Case For This San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a high-probability goal environment, with both sides combining for over 3.1 goals per game across the season and recent form confirming attacking output. San Jose’s home attack (1.73 goals per game, 26 in 15 home matches) meets a Real Salt Lake defence that has struggled away (27 conceded in 15), while RSL’s attack has found some rhythm but remains inconsistent on the road. The distribution of results and shot volumes suggests a contest where both teams are likely to score, but the home side’s higher floor and more reliable home output tilt the edge their way.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →San Jose average 1.73 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with a 53% over 2.5 match rate.
- →Real Salt Lake have lost 10 of 15 away matches, conceding 27 goals (1.8 per away game) and keeping just 10% clean sheets overall.
- →Both teams have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five matches, with San Jose recording BTTS in all five.
🚩 San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.8 corners for San Jose Earthquakes and 4.8 for Real Salt Lake, for an expected total of 11.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (73%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 62%.
How San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
San Jose Earthquakeslast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Real Salt Lakelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in their last five (DDDWD), but four of those were draws, indicating resilience but some attacking inefficiency. Real Salt Lake have alternated wins and losses in their last five (WDLWL), including an impressive 3-1 away win at Kansas City but also a 2-1 defeat at Philadelphia, highlighting their inconsistency.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
The last ten meetings between these sides are perfectly balanced (4 wins each, 2 draws), but recent encounters have been close, with the last match ending 1-1. Notably, six of the last ten have seen both teams score, and the last two in San Jose have produced a 4-0 win for the hosts and a 0-1 away win for RSL.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
San Jose Earthquakes wins
2
Draws
4
Real Salt Lake wins
Things to Watch: San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges and expected value cannot be computed.
- ⚠️Both teams have drawn three of their last five, raising the risk of a stalemate.
- ⚠️Neither side has a strong defensive profile, but variance in finishing could swing the total goals market.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Real Salt LakeThe model projects a 2-1 win for San Jose Earthquakes, driven primarily by their superior attacking rate at home (1.73 goals per game) and Real Salt Lake’s poor away defensive record (27 conceded in 15). The most plausible way this goes wrong is if San Jose’s recent run of draws continues and finishing variance leads to another stalemate, especially with both teams showing a tendency to concede late goals.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake: Common Questions
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
San Jose Earthquakes are modelled as 47% likely winners, with a 30% chance of a draw and 23% for a Real Salt Lake away win. The main edge comes from San Jose’s stronger home attack and RSL’s poor away defence.
Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
There is a 62% probability of both teams scoring, with San Jose seeing BTTS in all of their last five matches and RSL in three of five. Both teams average over 1.5 goals scored and over 1.2 conceded per game recently.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
The model gives a 59% probability to over 2.5 goals, supported by San Jose’s 53% and RSL’s 67% season-long over 2.5 rates, as well as a combined average of over 3 goals per game across the season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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