Lyon vs Auxerre Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Lyon
Full Time
3 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 0
Auxerre
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.18(+0% edge)
Match Result
8.2/10Lyon Edge Auxerre 3-2 in Five-Goal Parc Olympique Thriller
Lyon secured a dramatic 3-2 victory over Auxerre at the Parc Olympique Lyonnais, in a match that ebbed and flowed with attacking intent and late drama. The hosts took the lead in the 19th minute, but Auxerre responded before halftime to level the scores. Lyon reasserted their dominance after the break, striking twice in quick succession (66' and 71') to build a commanding lead, only for Auxerre to set up a nervy finish with an 88th-minute goal. Statistically, Lyon were the more assertive side, enjoying 57% possession and registering 12 shots (6 on target), compared to Auxerre’s 7 shots (just 1 on target). Despite being outplayed for large stretches, Auxerre’s resilience and late push kept the contest alive until the final whistle. Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but it was Lyon’s superior midfield control and clinical finishing that ultimately proved decisive.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
3 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
19' — Goal
Roman Yaremchuk opens the scoring for Lyon, finishing a well-worked move.
35' — Goal
Lassine Sinayoko levels for Auxerre, capitalizing on a rare chance.
66' — Goal
Lyon retake the lead with a swift attacking move, restoring their advantage.
71' — Goal
Afonso Moreira extends Lyon’s lead, finishing clinically from inside the box.
88' — Goal
Auxerre pull one back late, setting up a tense finale.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Auxerre pick up two bookings as they chase the game; Lyon receive one yellow in a disciplined display.
Lyon
Lyon delivered a confident attacking display, controlling the tempo with 57% possession and producing 12 shots, half of which tested the goalkeeper. Their midfield duo of Tyler Morton and Orel Mangala dictated play, while the attacking quartet consistently threatened Auxerre’s back line. The hosts showed composure to retake the lead after being pegged back, and their quick-fire double after the hour mark was a testament to their offensive fluidity. Defensively, Lyon were largely solid, conceding just one shot on target, but a late lapse allowed Auxerre a route back into the game. The team’s discipline was notable, picking up just one yellow card in a competitive fixture.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Auxerre
Auxerre showed admirable spirit, twice fighting back from deficits and refusing to let Lyon run away with the game. Despite seeing less of the ball (43% possession) and managing just one shot on target, they made the most of their opportunities, scoring twice and pushing Lyon until the final whistle. Their defensive organization was tested throughout, and while they conceded three times, their late attacking substitutions injected energy and belief. Auxerre’s discipline wavered at times, with two players booked, and their inability to create more clear-cut chances ultimately cost them. Nonetheless, their resilience and late surge were positives to build on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides began with a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Lyon’s midfield pairing of Morton and Mangala provided greater stability and ball progression. The home side’s attacking midfielders—particularly Moreira and Endrick—stretched Auxerre’s defensive shape, creating overloads and chances between the lines. Lyon’s use of width and quick interchanges around the box were key to their second-half success. Auxerre, meanwhile, relied on compactness and counter-attacks, with Faivre and Sinayoko their main outlets. Their inability to sustain possession or build through midfield limited their attacking threat, but tactical changes and late substitutions injected directness and nearly salvaged a point.
Turning Point
Lyon’s two goals in the space of five minutes (66' and 71') broke Auxerre’s resistance and ultimately secured the win.
Man of the Match
Afonso Moreira
His attacking influence and crucial second-half goal put Lyon in control at a pivotal stage.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 0.30
Over 2.5 Goals
20%
BTTS: Yes
18%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Lyon vs Auxerre?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Lyon vs Auxerre(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Lyon Win@ 1.25
Lyon are strong at home (10W/1D/3L), Auxerre are poor away (1W/5D/8L, 10 goals in 14). Lyon's defense is solid (52% clean sheets), and Auxerre rarely score away. Odds are short, so value is marginal.
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BTTS: No@ 1.18
Both teams have only 1/5 BTTS in last 5, both kept 3 clean sheets in last 5, and Auxerre average under 1 goal per away game. Low-scoring trend and defensive solidity support this.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.17
Both teams have low over 2.5 rates (Lyon 48%, Auxerre 38%), last 5 averages are under 1 goal scored per team, and recent H2H are low-scoring. Odds are a bit short, so value is limited.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction
Lyon host Auxerre in a clash of contrasting home and away records. Lyon's strong defense and home form position them as clear favorites, while Auxerre struggle to score and win on the road. Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches recently, with clean sheets common and few matches featuring both teams scoring. Expect a controlled, cagey match where Lyon's quality edges it, but goals may be scarce.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Low-scoring trend: both average under 1 goal scored per game in last 5.
- →Recent H2H meetings have often been tight and low-scoring.
Defence
- →Lyon's home record: 10W/1D/3L, only 10 conceded in 14 home games.
- →Both teams have 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches.
Match Context
- →Auxerre's away record: 1W/5D/8L, 10 scored in 14 away.
- →Lyon missing O. Mangala (knee), but squad depth should cover.
🚩 Lyon vs Auxerre Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Lyon and 4.3 for Auxerre, for an expected total of 9.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 59% · Over 10.5: 33%.
How Lyon and Auxerre Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Lyon vs Auxerre Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Lyonlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Auxerrelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Lyon vs Auxerre — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +48.39% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Lyon vs Auxerre
Lyon vs Auxerre Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Lyon wins
3
Draws
2
Auxerre wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Lyon vs Auxerre
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Lyon vs Auxerre
- ⚠️Recent form for both teams is not strong offensively; risk of 0-0 or late goal.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (shots, lineups) for several recent games reduce model confidence.
- ⚠️Auxerre's defensive improvement (0.4 conceded avg last 5) could frustrate Lyon.
- ⚠️Odds on main markets are short; value is marginal.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Lyon vs Auxerre: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.