Mansfield Town vs Notts County Predictions
League One · England
Mansfield Town
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Notts County
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Mansfield Town vs Notts County
Mansfield Town vs Notts County: Match Preview
Mansfield Town come into this clash sitting 11th in League One, unbeaten at home (W3 D2) and buoyed by a 3-0 away win at AFC Wimbledon in their last league outing. Their recent form string of WDWLD reflects a side that has found attacking rhythm but remains prone to lapses at the back, with just one clean sheet in their last five. Notts County, by contrast, are 18th and winless away from home, with only two league wins all season, but did pick up a confidence-boosting 2-0 home win over Sheffield Wednesday last time out.
The statistical matchup points to a high-goal environment: Mansfield average 2.0 goals per home game, while Notts County concede 1.6 per away, and both sides' matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 70% and 30% of games respectively. Mansfield's shot production (15.8 per game last five) and corner count (6.4) suggest sustained pressure, while Notts County's away defence has been breached in every league outing. Cards could be a factor, with both teams averaging over 2.5 yellows per game recently, and Notts County's fouls per match (16.2) is notably high.
The model expects Mansfield's home attack to make the difference, projecting a 2-1 win. Notts County's recent upturn in attack (2.0 goals/game last five) means they should threaten, but their away record and Mansfield's H2H dominance (7 wins in last 10) tip the balance. The likeliest path is Mansfield scoring first and controlling the tempo, but defensive lapses on both sides keep BTTS and over 2.5 goals firmly in play.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Mansfield Town vs Notts County Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Mansfield Town vs Notts County that most previews miss.
- 1Mansfield's home matches have seen 3.0 goals per game on average, with 70% finishing over 2.5 goals.
- 2Notts County have failed to win any of their five away league matches, conceding at least once in every outing.
- 3Four of the last five H2H meetings at Mansfield have ended with the home side winning by two or more goals.
Who do you think wins: Mansfield Town vs Notts County?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Mansfield Town vs Notts County(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Mansfield's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 70% of league games, and both sides average above 1.2 goals conceded per game over the last five. The model gives a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, well above typical league averages.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Mansfield Town Win
Mansfield are unbeaten at home (W3 D2), scoring 2.0 goals per home game, while Notts County have yet to win away and concede 1.6 per away match. The home win probability is 48% by the model.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 3 of their last 5 league matches, and Notts County's away defence has kept just one clean sheet in ten league games.
Read more ↓
More League One Predictions
The Case For This Mansfield Town vs Notts County Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a high-event League One clash, with Mansfield's attack at home (2.0 goals/game) matching up against a Notts County side still seeking their first away win. Both teams' recent matches point to defensive vulnerabilities, but Mansfield's home solidity and historical H2H dominance tilt the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Mansfield have won 7 of the last 10 H2H meetings, including the last three at home.
Defence
- →Mansfield have scored 10 goals in 5 home games, conceding just 5 (W3 D2 L0).
- →Notts County are winless away (D3 L2), scoring 4 and conceding 8 in those matches.
🚩 Mansfield Town vs Notts County Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.6 corners for Mansfield Town and 4.6 for Notts County, for an expected total of 11.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 57%.
How Mansfield Town and Notts County Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Mansfield Town vs Notts County Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Mansfield Townlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Notts Countylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mansfield Town have built momentum with a WDWLD run, highlighted by a 3-0 away win and a strong home record (W3 D2 L0). Notts County's form is more erratic, with two wins in their last five but no away victories and a defence conceding 1.6 per away match. Both sides have struggled for clean sheets, pointing to defensive vulnerabilities.
Mansfield Town vs Notts County — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
What History Says: Mansfield Town vs Notts County
Mansfield Town have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning seven of the last ten meetings and each of the last three at home. Notts County's only win in that period came in 2019, and Mansfield have kept four clean sheets in this fixture since 2016. Scorelines have often favoured the home side, with several matches decided by two-goal margins.
Mansfield Town vs Notts County Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
Mansfield Town wins
2
Draws
1
Notts County wins
Things to Watch: Mansfield Town vs Notts County
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be computed.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown recent inconsistency, with only one clean sheet each in their last five league matches.
- ⚠️Cup results and rotation may affect lineups, but no injury news is reported.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Mansfield Town 2–1 Notts CountyMansfield Town are projected to edge a 2-1 win, driven by their unbeaten home record and a scoring rate of 2.0 goals per home game. The single strongest data point is Mansfield's 70% over 2.5 goal rate, which points to a high-event contest. The main risk to this call is Notts County's recent improvement in attack and the hosts' own defensive frailties, which could see either side add to the scoreline late.
Mansfield Town vs Notts County: Common Questions
Who will win Mansfield Town vs Notts County?
The model gives Mansfield Town a 48% chance of victory, with a 30% probability of a draw and 22% for a Notts County win. Mansfield's unbeaten home record and historical H2H edge are key factors.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mansfield Town vs Notts County?
There's a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals, well above the league average, as Mansfield's matches have finished over 2.5 in 70% of league games and both sides average over 1.2 goals conceded per game recently.
Are both teams likely to score in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at 57%, with both sides having scored in three of their last five league matches and each keeping just one clean sheet in that span.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Mansfield Town vs Notts County: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Mansfield Town vs Notts County Resources
Mansfield Town Predictions
All Mansfield Town fixtures & tips
Notts County Predictions
All Notts County fixtures & tips
Mansfield Town vs Notts County Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Blackpool vs Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town — next match predictions
Notts County vs Stockport County
Notts County — next match predictions
League One Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results