Molde vs Fredrikstad Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Molde
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Fredrikstad
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Molde Win
Recommended Bets: Molde vs Fredrikstad
Molde vs Fredrikstad: Match Preview
Molde enter this fixture fourth in the table, boasting 7 wins from 11 home games and a recent run of three wins in their last five league outings. Their attack has been prolific, averaging 3.2 goals per game across the last five in all competitions, while Fredrikstad sit eighth, winless in their last four league matches and with just three away wins all season. The points gap and home/away splits suggest Molde are targeting Europe, while Fredrikstad are drifting in mid-table.
Statistically, this is a clash between one of the division's most potent home attacks and a visiting defence that has struggled on the road. Molde's home matches average 3.36 goals, underpinned by 24 goals scored and 13 conceded in 11 home games. Fredrikstad's away defence has leaked 24 in 12, and their last five league outings have seen both teams score in four. Molde's defensive numbers are also modest, with just two clean sheets in the last five and a season-long clean sheet rate of 18%. Set-piece data is limited, but Molde's last five have averaged 3.6 corners, while Fredrikstad average 4.0.
Given the rates, the model expects Molde to control territory and chances, with Fredrikstad's transition threat likely to yield opportunities. The most probable scenario is a home win with both teams on the scoresheet, and the distribution of goal timings suggests early action is likely: 62% chance of a goal before 30 minutes, and 71% for over 0.5 first-half goals. Scoreline volatility remains, but the underlying rates make 2-1 or 2-0 the most likely outcomes.
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Expected goals · model says 1.90
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Molde vs Fredrikstad Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Molde vs Fredrikstad that most previews miss.
- 1Molde's home matches average 3.36 total goals (24 scored, 13 conceded in 11 games).
- 2Fredrikstad have kept just one clean sheet in their last five league matches and only 13% across the season.
- 3The last five H2H meetings have produced an average of 3.2 goals, with both teams scoring in three of those games.
Who do you think wins: Molde vs Fredrikstad?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Molde vs Fredrikstad(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Molde Win
Molde have a home win probability of 0.53, underpinned by a 2.18 goals-per-home-game rate and Fredrikstad's 2.00 goals conceded per away match; Fredrikstad's away win rate is just 25%.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Molde's matches go over 2.5 goals in 68% of league games, and Fredrikstad's away games average 3.17 total goals; both sides have seen BTTS in 3+ of their last 5.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 4 of Fredrikstad's last 5 and 3 of Molde's last 5; both teams have failed to score just once combined in their last 10 league matches.
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More Eliteserien Predictions
The Case For This Molde vs Fredrikstad Prediction
Molde's strong home scoring rate and Fredrikstad's defensive frailties on the road point to a contest with a clear statistical edge for the hosts, but the away side's consistent ability to find the net keeps the goal markets in focus.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Molde average 2.18 goals scored per home match, while Fredrikstad concede 2.00 per away game.
Match Context
- →Molde's home record: 7 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses; Fredrikstad's away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses.
- →BTTS has landed in 3 of Molde's last 5 and 4 of Fredrikstad's last 5 league games.
🚩 Molde vs Fredrikstad Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Molde and 4.2 for Fredrikstad, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (50%). Over 8.5: 63% · Over 10.5: 38%.
How Molde and Fredrikstad Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Molde vs Fredrikstad Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Moldelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fredrikstadlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Molde have collected three wins and a draw from their last five, scoring 16 goals in that span and failing to score only once all season. Fredrikstad, by contrast, are winless in four league matches and have managed just one clean sheet in their last five, though they have found the net in every recent outing.
Molde vs Fredrikstad — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 68.18% of games this season
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Molde vs Fredrikstad
The recent head-to-head record is mixed: Fredrikstad won 2-1 at Aker Stadion last season, but Molde's previous home meeting was a 6-1 rout. Three of the last five have featured both teams scoring, and only one ended goalless.
Molde vs Fredrikstad Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
1
Molde wins
2
Draws
2
Fredrikstad wins
Things to Watch: Molde vs Fredrikstad
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be computed.
- ⚠️Recent H2H results are volatile, including a 6-1 Molde win and a 1-2 Fredrikstad away win.
- ⚠️Both teams have failed to keep clean sheets consistently (season clean sheet rates: Molde 18%, Fredrikstad 13%).
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Molde 2–1 FredrikstadMolde are projected to win 2-1, with the single strongest data point being their 2.18 goals-per-home-game rate against a Fredrikstad side conceding two per away match. The main risk is Fredrikstad's recent H2H success at Aker Stadion and Molde's inconsistent clean sheet record, which could allow the visitors to snatch a point or push the match over the expected goal line.
Molde vs Fredrikstad: Common Questions
Who will win Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Molde are favoured with a 53% win probability, largely due to their strong home scoring record and Fredrikstad's poor away defensive numbers. The draw is rated at 27% and an away win at 20%.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Fredrikstad?
There is a 56% probability of both teams scoring, supported by both sides having scored in 7 of their last 10 combined league matches and neither defence showing strong clean sheet form.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Molde vs Fredrikstad?
The model assigns a 61% probability to over 2.5 goals, reflecting Molde's 68% over 2.5 rate and Fredrikstad's away matches averaging over three goals per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Molde vs Fredrikstad: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.