Start vs Sandefjord Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Start
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Sandefjord
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Sandefjord Win
Recommended Bets: Start vs Sandefjord
Start vs Sandefjord: Match Preview
Start approach this fixture rooted to the bottom of the Eliteserien, having lost 14 of 22 and conceding a league-high 48 goals. Their home record is poor (3W, 3D, 5L), and recent form remains patchy, with just two wins in their last five across all competitions. Sandefjord, sitting 12th with 24 points, are not out of danger themselves but have shown greater resilience, including a 3-0 win over Start in September and a creditable away draw at Rosenborg last time out.
The statistical matchup is defined by Start's defensive frailty (2.18 conceded per game, only 9% clean sheets) against a Sandefjord side that scores modestly but consistently on the road (1.09 per away game). Start's attack has found some rhythm lately (2.4 goals per game in their last five, though this includes cup and friendlies), but their shot and chance creation numbers remain limited. Sandefjord's last five league outings average 1.6 scored and 1 conceded, with a strong second-half scoring bias (8 of their last 8 goals after halftime), while Start have conceded heavily in both halves.
Given these rates, the model expects Sandefjord to control the tempo and exploit Start's defensive lapses, especially after the break. While Start's need for points could open up the game, their tendency to concede multiple goals at home tips the balance to the visitors. The most likely scenario is a narrow Sandefjord win, with both teams finding the net but the away side's structure and recent H2H advantage proving decisive.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Start vs Sandefjord Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Start vs Sandefjord that most previews miss.
- 1Start's home matches average 3.0 goals, with 64% finishing over 2.5 goals.
- 2Sandefjord have scored 8 of their last 8 goals in the second half.
- 3Five of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in draws, but Sandefjord have not lost to Start in the league since 2023.
Who do you think wins: Start vs Sandefjord?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Start vs Sandefjord(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Sandefjord Win
Sandefjord's away record (3 wins from 11, 12 scored, 18 conceded) is notably stronger than Start's overall defensive output (48 conceded in 22; only 9% clean sheets), and Sandefjord took the reverse fixture 3-0 last month. The model assigns 44% to the away win, above the league average for away sides in this table segment.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Start matches average 3.27 goals per game (over 2.5 in 59% of fixtures), and their last five league games have seen 2.4 scored and 2.2 conceded per match. Sandefjord's away games average 2.73 goals, so the over is marginally favoured.
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BTTS: Yes
Start have scored in four of their last five, but kept zero clean sheets in that span. Sandefjord have failed to score in only 2 of 11 away games, and both teams have scored in 54% of their combined last ten league matches.
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More Eliteserien Predictions
The Case For This Start vs Sandefjord Prediction
Start's relegation-troubled campaign is defined by a porous defence, conceding 2.18 per game and just two home clean sheets all season. Sandefjord, while hardly prolific, have been more robust on their travels than Start have at home, and arrive with a recent 3-0 win in the reverse fixture. The statistical profile points to an away side more likely to exploit defensive weaknesses, with a moderate goal environment expected.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Start have the league's worst defence (48 conceded in 22), with only 9% clean sheets.
- →Sandefjord's away record (3W, 1D, 7L) is solid for a bottom-half side, with 12 scored and 18 conceded.
Match Context
- →Recent H2H: Sandefjord won the reverse fixture 3-0 just five weeks ago.
🚩 Start vs Sandefjord Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Start and 3.6 for Sandefjord, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 23%.
How Start and Sandefjord Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Start vs Sandefjord Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Startlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sandefjordlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Start have lost three of their last five league matches, conceding 11 goals in that span, and remain anchored to the bottom of the table. Sandefjord, by contrast, are unbeaten in four of their last five in all competitions, including a 3-0 win over Start and a draw away at Rosenborg, showing more consistency and defensive solidity.
Start vs Sandefjord — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Start vs Sandefjord
Sandefjord have the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning four and drawing five of the last ten meetings. The reverse fixture just five weeks ago ended 3-0 to Sandefjord, and draws have been frequent, but Start have not beaten Sandefjord in the league since 2023.
Start vs Sandefjord Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Start wins
5
Draws
4
Sandefjord wins
Things to Watch: Start vs Sandefjord
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Start's attack has shown flashes (2.4 scored per game in last five), but sample includes cup and friendly matches.
- ⚠️Sandefjord's away defence is average (1.64 conceded per away game), but Start's home attack is inconsistent.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Start 1–2 SandefjordThe model projects a 2-1 win for Sandefjord, driven primarily by Start's league-worst defensive record (2.18 conceded per game) and Sandefjord's recent 3-0 H2H win. The biggest risk is Start's sporadic attacking surges at home, which could turn a likely away win into a high-scoring draw if Sandefjord's defence lapses.
Start vs Sandefjord: Common Questions
Who will win Start vs Sandefjord?
The model gives Sandefjord a 44% chance of victory, Start 23%, and a draw 33%. Sandefjord's superior defensive record and recent 3-0 win in the reverse fixture tip the balance their way.
Will both teams score in Start vs Sandefjord?
There's a 54% probability of both teams scoring, as Start have failed to score in only one of their last five, and Sandefjord have scored in all of their last five league matches.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Start vs Sandefjord?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 54%, reflecting Start's high concession rate (2.18 per game) and the fact that 59% of their matches this season have gone over this line.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Start vs Sandefjord: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.