Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor Predictions
1. Lig · Turkey
Ümraniyespor
Full Time
4 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Sivasspor
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
Match Result
7.8/10Ümraniyespor Run Riot as Nine-Man Sivasspor Suffer 4-0 Drubbing
Ümraniyespor delivered a commanding performance at the Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi, routing a beleaguered Sivasspor side 4-0 in front of their home fans. The hosts dominated proceedings from the outset, enjoying 62% possession and firing 14 shots, six of which tested the Sivasspor goalkeeper. Goals in the 27th, 63rd, 67th, and 79th minutes underscored their attacking prowess, while Sivasspor’s discipline crumbled, ending the match with just nine men after two red cards. Sivasspor, lining up in a 4-1-4-1, struggled to impose themselves, managing just four shots and a solitary effort on target. Their defensive frailties were compounded by ill-discipline, as three yellow cards and two dismissals left them hopelessly outnumbered and outplayed. Ümraniyespor’s relentless pressure and clinical finishing ensured a comprehensive victory that never looked in doubt.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
4 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
27' — Goal
C. Soukou opens the scoring for Ümraniyespor, setting the tone for the match.
63' — Goal
Ümraniyespor double their lead, capitalizing on Sivasspor’s growing defensive gaps.
67' — Goal
A third goal for the hosts all but seals the contest as Sivasspor’s resistance collapses.
79' — Goal
Ümraniyespor add a fourth, putting the result beyond doubt.
Second Half' — Red Cards
Sivasspor reduced to nine men after two red cards, ending any hopes of a comeback.
Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor were in total control from start to finish, dictating the tempo with a dominant 62% share of possession. Their 4-2-3-1 setup allowed for fluid movement and frequent overloads in midfield, resulting in 14 shots and a steady stream of chances. The home side’s incisive attacking play was matched by defensive solidity, as they limited Sivasspor to just one shot on target and kept a clean sheet.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Sivasspor
Sivasspor endured a torrid afternoon, unable to cope with Ümraniyespor’s intensity and movement. Their 4-1-4-1 formation failed to provide defensive stability, and they were overrun in midfield. With just 38% possession and only four shots (one on target), the visitors rarely threatened. Their misery was compounded by poor discipline, as three yellow cards and two reds left them with nine men for much of the second half.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Ümraniyespor’s 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate central areas and stretch the play with their wide midfielders. The double pivot provided a solid base, enabling fullbacks to push forward and support attacks. Their pressing was effective, forcing Sivasspor into errors and regaining possession high up the pitch. Set pieces were a threat, as evidenced by seven corners won. Sivasspor’s 4-1-4-1 setup failed to provide the necessary defensive cover, and their midfield was consistently outnumbered. The lack of width and inability to retain possession left them vulnerable to Ümraniyespor’s transitions. The red cards forced a tactical reshuffle, but with a numerical disadvantage, they were unable to stem the tide.
Turning Point
The first red card for Sivasspor in the second half, which left them a man down and opened the floodgates for Ümraniyespor’s late goals.
Man of the Match
C. Soukou
Opened the scoring, led the line with authority, and was involved in key attacking moves throughout.
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor: Match Preview
Ümraniyespor come into this fixture sitting 17th in the table, with just one win from nine and still searching for a first home victory after five attempts (0W, 3D, 2L, 3GF, 5GA). Their recent form string of DWLLL underlines a lack of momentum, with only two goals scored in their last four matches. Sivasspor, 11th in the standings, have been harder to beat (2W, 6D, 2L) and are unbeaten in their last four (DWDDW), but have also only managed one win in five away trips this season (1W, 2D, 2L, 5GF, 7GA).
The statistical matchup tilts toward Sivasspor's attack: they average 1.8 goals per game over their last five, and have scored in every one of those matches, while Ümraniyespor have averaged just 0.6 goals per game and failed to score in two of their last five. Sivasspor's matches are consistently open—five straight BTTS, 50% over 2.5 goals on the season—while Ümraniyespor's defence concedes at a moderate 1.11 per game but has kept only two clean sheets all year. Set pieces and discipline are unlikely to be decisive: both sides average under 3.5 corners per match and around 2 yellow cards per game.
The model projects a relatively open contest compared to the head-to-head history, with Sivasspor's attacking rates and Ümraniyespor's inability to convert home advantage combining for a 2-1 away win as the likeliest outcome. However, the high draw rate for both teams and Ümraniyespor's tendency to keep games tight at home mean a low-scoring draw remains a strong secondary outcome.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor that most previews miss.
- 1Sivasspor have seen both teams score in each of their last five matches, with an average of 2.8 total goals per game in that span.
- 2Ümraniyespor have failed to win any of their five home matches this season, scoring just three times across those games.
- 3Six of the last seven head-to-head meetings have produced under 2.5 goals, but Sivasspor's current attack rate (1.8 goals/game last five) is well above that historical trend.
Who do you think wins: Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
The draw probability (0.36) is notably high for a fixture where both sides have drawn more than they have won (Ümraniyespor 4/9, Sivasspor 6/10), and neither side has a strong home/away win rate.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Sivasspor have seen over 2.5 goals in 50% of league games and have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game over their last five; Ümraniyespor's defensive record is poor enough to support a modestly goal-prone environment.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in all of Sivasspor's last five matches and in two of Ümraniyespor's last five, with Sivasspor failing to keep a clean sheet in any of those games.
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More 1. Lig Predictions
The Case For This Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor Prediction
Sivasspor's superior attacking output and Ümraniyespor's home struggles point to a narrow away win, though the high draw rate for both sides and modest goal environment keep the outcome open.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Ümraniyespor average just 0.78 goals scored per game this season, with no home wins in five attempts.
- →Sivasspor have scored in every one of their last five matches and average 1.4 goals per game this season.
Match Context
- →Both teams have drawn over 40% of their league matches, indicating a high likelihood of a close contest.
🚩 Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Ümraniyespor and 3 for Sivasspor, for an expected total of 7.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (74%). Over 8.5: 38% · Over 10.5: 17%.
How Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Ümraniyesporlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sivassporlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ümraniyespor have struggled for momentum, posting just one win in nine and failing to win at home this season. Sivasspor, while not prolific in terms of victories, have lost only two of ten and are unbeaten in their last four, with their attack showing consistent output.
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor
The head-to-head record is nearly balanced, with three wins for Ümraniyespor, two for Sivasspor, and two draws in the last seven meetings. Most encounters have been low-scoring, but the most recent league meetings have each finished 1-0 to the home side.
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
4
Ümraniyespor wins
2
Draws
2
Sivasspor wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor
With bookmaker odds unavailable, no explicit value edges can be flagged. However, the model's high draw probability and moderate lean toward Sivasspor suggest that if market odds overrate the away side, the draw could offer value, especially given both teams' tendency to share points.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor
- ⚠️Ümraniyespor's low scoring rate could suppress total goals if Sivasspor's attack underperforms.
- ⚠️Both teams' high draw rates introduce significant variance in the 1X2 market.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Ümraniyespor 1–2 SivassporThe model favours a 2-1 win for Sivasspor, driven by their 1.8 goals-per-game output over the last five and Ümraniyespor's lack of home wins or scoring punch. The biggest risk is the high draw rate for both sides—if Sivasspor's attack stalls or Ümraniyespor's defence holds, a 1-1 draw is highly plausible.
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor: Common Questions
Who will win Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor?
Sivasspor are given a 42% chance of victory, compared to 22% for Ümraniyespor and 36% for the draw. Sivasspor's stronger attack and Ümraniyespor's winless home record tip the balance slightly toward the away side.
Will both teams score in Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor?
The probability for both teams to score is 57%. Sivasspor have seen BTTS in all of their last five matches, while Ümraniyespor have scored in three of their last five.
How many goals are expected in Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor?
There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, with Sivasspor averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game in their last five, and Ümraniyespor's home defence conceding an average of 1 goal per match.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.