İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü Predictions
1. Lig · Turkey
İstanbulspor
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Keçiörengücü
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Keçiörengücü Win
Recommended Bets: İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü
İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü: Match Preview
İstanbulspor enter this match rooted to the bottom of the table, having lost ten of their fourteen league games and boasting the division's worst defensive record. Their home form is especially poor: no wins, just five goals scored, and ten conceded in six matches. Keçiörengücü, by contrast, sit sixth with a positive goal difference and three away wins already, coming off a 1-0 home victory over Manisa F.K.
Statistically, this is a contest between a blunt attack and a porous defence on one side, and a high-output, balanced away team on the other. Keçiörengücü average 1.86 goals scored per game and have managed three away clean sheets, while İstanbulspor concede 2.36 per game and rarely keep opponents out (clean sheet rate 14%). The hosts' matches go over 2.5 goals 64% of the time, and their last five have averaged 3.0 total goals. Set-piece threat is limited on both sides, with corners per game low (İstanbulspor 2.2, Keçiörengücü 3.4 in last five).
The model expects Keçiörengücü to dominate the shot count and exploit İstanbulspor's defensive frailty, likely scoring first and controlling the game. However, the H2H record's draw bias and Keçiörengücü's tendency to concede on the road (10 in 7 away) mean a 1-2 or 0-2 away win is most probable, but a 1-1 draw remains a plausible outcome.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü that most previews miss.
- 1Seven of the last ten H2H meetings ended in draws, with five finishing 1-1 or 0-0.
- 2İstanbulspor's home games average just 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match.
- 3Keçiörengücü have scored in all but one of their last seven away league matches.
Who do you think wins: İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü?
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Where the Model Sees Value: İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Keçiörengücü Win
Keçiörengücü's away record (3W, 2D, 2L, 13GF, 10GA) is strong compared to İstanbulspor's home record (0W, 2D, 4L, 5GF, 10GA), and the visitors average 1.86 goals per game this season versus the hosts' 0.86.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
İstanbulspor's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 64% of games (season), and Keçiörengücü average 1.86 scored and 1.29 conceded per game, supporting a higher goal expectation.
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More 1. Lig Predictions
The Case For This İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü Prediction
This fixture pits the league's weakest defence against a top-six attack, with İstanbulspor conceding 2.36 goals per game and Keçiörengücü scoring at nearly double that rate. The visitors' away scoring rate (1.86 per game) and clean sheet percentage (35.7%) suggest they can control the tempo, especially against a home side winless in Istanbul. With a historical H2H trend of low home win probability and frequent draws, the statistical shape points to Keçiörengücü as favourites but with a moderate chance of a stalemate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →İstanbulspor's home record: 0 wins in 6, only 5 goals scored.
- →Keçiörengücü's away attack: 13 goals in 7 away games (1.86 per game).
Defence
- →İstanbulspor have the league's worst defence: 33 conceded in 14 matches.
🚩 İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.6 corners for İstanbulspor and 3.6 for Keçiörengücü, for an expected total of 7.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (81%). Over 8.5: 30% · Over 10.5: 11%.
How İstanbulspor and Keçiörengücü Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
İstanbulsporlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Keçiörengücülast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
İstanbulspor have lost four of their last five league matches, conceding twice or more in three of those, but did secure a 2-0 away win last time out. Keçiörengücü are on a steadier trajectory, with two wins in their last five and only one failure to score in that stretch. The visitors' overall form and away record are significantly superior.
İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü
The last ten meetings between these sides have produced seven draws and three Keçiörengücü wins, with no victories for İstanbulspor. Scorelines are typically low and tight, with five of the last ten finishing 1-1 or 0-0, underlining a strong historical draw tendency.
İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
0
İstanbulspor wins
7
Draws
3
Keçiörengücü wins
Things to Watch: İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available—value and expected value cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️İstanbulspor's last match was a rare clean sheet and away win, but sample is small.
- ⚠️Keçiörengücü's defence has shown some volatility, conceding 4 to Bursaspor recently.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
İstanbulspor 1–2 KeçiörengücüThe model projects a 2-1 away win for Keçiörengücü, anchored by the gulf in season-long scoring and concession rates—İstanbulspor's 0.86 goals for and 2.36 against per game are outliers in the division. The main risk lies in the historical draw trend between these sides and Keçiörengücü's occasional defensive lapses on the road.
İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü: Common Questions
Who will win İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü?
Keçiörengücü are clear statistical favourites with a 52% win probability, driven by their strong away scoring rate (1.86 per game) and İstanbulspor's winless home record. The draw is also a live possibility (32%), reflecting the H2H trend.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in this match?
The numbers point to a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, with İstanbulspor matches going over that line in 64% of games this season and both teams averaging over 3 combined goals per match.
Is both teams to score likely in İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü?
Both teams to score is rated almost even (49% yes, 51% no), as İstanbulspor have failed to score in two of their last five, while Keçiörengücü have kept two clean sheets in the same span.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for İstanbulspor vs Keçiörengücü: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.