Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor Predictions
1. Lig · Turkey
Fatih Karagümrük
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Boluspor
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
Recommended Bets: Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor
Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor: Match Preview
Fatih Karagümrük approach this fixture from mid-table, sitting 9th with 19 points from 14 games, but their recent form is mixed—two wins and three losses in the last five. Their home record is steady if unspectacular (2W, 3D, 2L), but they come off a confidence-boosting 4-0 away win at Bandırmaspor. Boluspor, bottom of the league with just four points from 13 matches, have lost 11 times and are winless in five of their last six. Their only away win came at Sivasspor, but otherwise they have been outscored 14-3 on the road.
Statistically, the matchup tilts heavily towards the hosts. Karagümrük average 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game, while Boluspor's defensive numbers are the league's worst: 2.15 conceded per match, and no clean sheets all season. Boluspor's attack is also the least productive in the division, with only 0.46 goals per game. Karagümrük's shot volume (17 per match last five) and possession (60.2%) suggest they will dominate territory, while Boluspor's low shot and corner counts point to limited attacking threat. Both teams trend under 2.5 goals, but Karagümrük's home matches are especially tight, averaging 1.14 goals conceded and only eight scored in seven home games.
The model expects Karagümrük to control the match, with a 60% chance of victory and a 74% probability that Boluspor fail to score. The most likely scenario is a methodical home win, possibly 2-0, driven by the hosts' consistent attacking output and the visitors' inability to defend or threaten away from home. The main risk is Karagümrük's occasional bluntness in front of goal, which could keep the scoreline close.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor that most previews miss.
- 1Boluspor have conceded at least two goals in 5 of 6 away matches, with a season away goals against average of 2.33.
- 2Fatih Karagümrük have kept two clean sheets in their last five, and 21.4% of all matches this season.
- 3Only one of Karagümrük's last five home matches has seen both teams score.
Who do you think wins: Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Fatih Karagümrük Win
Fatih Karagümrük average 1.43 goals scored and only 1.14 conceded per game this season, while Boluspor have the league's worst defence away (2.33 conceded per away match) and have lost 11 of 13 overall. Model home win probability is 60%.
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BTTS: No
Boluspor have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and average just 0.46 goals per game this season, while Fatih Karagümrük have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5. Model assigns 74% probability to BTTS 'no'.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Fatih Karagümrük matches have gone under 2.5 in 64% of games (season over 2.5%: 35.71%), and Boluspor's attack is blunt away from home. Model probability for under 2.5 is 52%.
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More 1. Lig Predictions
The Case For This Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor Prediction
Fatih Karagümrük's home scoring rate and Boluspor's historically poor defensive record away from home shape this fixture as a low-risk environment for the hosts. Boluspor's inability to score regularly—just 6 goals in 13 matches—makes a home clean sheet likely. The expected goal environment is moderate, with under 2.5 goals slightly favoured, but the home side's attacking volume should eventually break through.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Fatih Karagümrük average 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game (season).
- →Boluspor have conceded 2.15 goals per game and scored only 0.46 per game (season).
- →Boluspor have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches and have not kept a clean sheet all season.
🚩 Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Fatih Karagümrük and 3.6 for Boluspor, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 23%.
How Fatih Karagümrük and Boluspor Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fatih Karagümrüklast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bolusporlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fatih Karagümrük's recent form is mixed—two wins and three losses in their last five, but they come off a dominant 4-0 win at Bandırmaspor. At home, they've struggled for consistency, with only two wins in seven. Boluspor are in crisis, losing four of their last five and scoring just twice in that span, with their only win coming away at Sivasspor.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 60% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor
The head-to-head record is limited but leans towards Fatih Karagümrük at home, unbeaten in both recent meetings in Istanbul (3-1 win, 2-2 draw). Boluspor have not won away at Karagümrük in this period, and most matches have been decided by a margin of at least two goals.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
2
Fatih Karagümrük wins
1
Draws
1
Boluspor wins
Things to Watch: Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Sample size for head-to-head is small (4 matches), so trends may not be robust.
- ⚠️Both teams have some volatility in recent form, with Karagümrük inconsistent at home.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Fatih Karagümrük 2–0 BolusporThe model projects a 2-0 win for Fatih Karagümrük, anchored by Boluspor's league-worst attack (0.46 goals per game) and porous defence (2.15 conceded per game). The strongest data point is Boluspor's total lack of clean sheets and regular failures to score. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Karagümrük's attack underperforms at home, as seen in two recent home defeats, keeping the contest closer than the underlying rates suggest.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor: Common Questions
Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor?
Fatih Karagümrük are strong favourites, with a 60% model probability of victory. Boluspor have lost 11 of 13 matches and have the league's worst defensive record.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor?
Both teams to score is unlikely, with only a 26% model probability. Boluspor have failed to score in three of their last five and average just 0.46 goals per game.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 52% probability, with Karagümrük matches going under in 64% of games this season and Boluspor's attack offering little threat.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fatih Karagümrük vs Boluspor: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.