MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock Predictions
3. Liga · Germany
MSV Duisburg
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Hansa Rostock
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock
MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock: Match Preview
MSV Duisburg enter this clash sitting second in the 3. Liga, unbeaten at home (4W, 2D) and boasting the best attack in the division with 33 goals from 13 matches. Their recent form is steady rather than spectacular (WDLDW), but they have scored in every league match and come off a 2-1 away win at Preußen Münster. Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, are mid-table in tenth, with just one win in their last five and a negative away goal difference, but did record a confidence-boosting 3-0 home win last time out.
The statistical shape of this fixture is defined by Duisburg's relentless attacking output (2.54 goals per game) and a defence that concedes 1.38 per match, leading to a 92% over 2.5 goals rate. Hansa Rostock's away defence is porous (1.86 conceded per away game), but they create a decent volume of chances (14.6 shots per game over the last five) and have scored in three of their last five. Duisburg's lack of clean sheets and high BTTS frequency (5/5) further point to both teams finding the net. Set-piece numbers are moderate, but both sides average over 4 corners per game, and discipline could be a factor with both teams above 2 yellow cards per match in recent outings.
Given Duisburg's attacking consistency and Hansa Rostock's defensive frailty away from home, the model expects a high-scoring contest with the home side edging it. The most probable outcome is a 2-1 Duisburg win, with both teams likely to score and the match tempo increasing after the break. However, Duisburg's defensive volatility and Hansa's H2H record inject some uncertainty, keeping the draw and a high-scoring stalemate in play.
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Expected goals · model says 1.90
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
65%
BTTS: Yes
65%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock that most previews miss.
- 1Duisburg have seen both teams score in all of their last five league games, with an average of 4.0 total goals per match in that span.
- 2Hansa Rostock's away fixtures average 3.43 total goals, but they've managed just one clean sheet in seven on the road.
- 3Duisburg have scored eight first-half goals in their last five matches, indicating a strong early attacking trend.
Who do you think wins: MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock?
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Where the Model Sees Value: MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Duisburg matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 12 of 13 league games (92%), and their last five have averaged 4.0 total goals, while Hansa Rostock's defensive record away (13 conceded in 7) supports a high-scoring expectation.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in all of Duisburg's last five, and Hansa Rostock have failed to score in only two of their last five; Duisburg have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five.
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More 3. Liga Predictions
The Case For This MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock Prediction
This fixture pits the league's most prolific attack against a mid-table side with a leaky away defence. Duisburg's matches average 3.9 goals per game, and they've yet to lose at home, while Hansa Rostock's away record is mixed, conceding 13 in 7 on their travels. The underlying shot numbers and goal rates point to a game with above-average scoring chances, especially given Duisburg's tendency for open, high-scoring contests.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Hansa Rostock have conceded 13 goals in 7 away games (1.86 per match).
- →Duisburg have not kept a clean sheet in their last five league matches.
Match Context
- →Duisburg's season over 2.5 goals rate is 92.3% (12/13 matches).
🚩 MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for MSV Duisburg and 6 for Hansa Rostock, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How MSV Duisburg and Hansa Rostock Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
MSV Duisburglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hansa Rostocklast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Duisburg have lost just twice all season and remain unbeaten at home, with a recent run of WDLDW and 11 goals scored in their last five. Hansa Rostock, by contrast, have stumbled with three losses in their last five, but ended that spell with a 3-0 win, suggesting some recovery in confidence.
MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 92.31% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 60% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock have won five of the last ten meetings, including a 5-1 away victory in the most recent encounter, but Duisburg are unbeaten in the last two at home (one win, one draw). Draws have been common, with three in the last ten, and both teams have found the net regularly in this fixture.
MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
MSV Duisburg wins
3
Draws
5
Hansa Rostock wins
Things to Watch: MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams' clean sheet rates are low, but Duisburg's defensive volatility could allow for a wider range of outcomes.
- ⚠️H2H history is mixed, with Duisburg winning only 2 of the last 10 meetings.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
MSV Duisburg 2–1 Hansa RostockThe model projects a 2-1 win for Duisburg, primarily on the strength of their league-leading attack (2.54 goals per game) and Hansa Rostock's soft away defence. The likeliest way this call goes wrong is if Duisburg's defensive issues persist and Hansa capitalise, leading to a high-scoring draw or away upset.
MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock: Common Questions
Who will win MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Duisburg are favoured with a 45% win probability, compared to 30% for the draw and 25% for a Hansa Rostock victory, based on their unbeaten home record and superior scoring rate.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 68%, driven by Duisburg's 92% over 2.5 rate this season and both teams' high-scoring recent matches.
Will both teams score in Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Both teams to score is rated at 63%, as Duisburg have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and Hansa Rostock have scored in three of their last five matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.