Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
Nashville SC
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Philadelphia Union
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union: Match Preview
Nashville SC arrive at Geodis Park on a 5-match unbeaten run, having won four of those, and sit top of the table with a formidable 14-1-0 home record. Their recent results include a 4-0 home win over Sporting Kansas City and a 4-1 away victory at Austin, underlining their attacking depth and defensive organisation. Philadelphia Union, sixth in the standings, are also in strong form (DWWWW), scoring 15 goals in their last five, but their away record is patchy, with seven losses and 32 goals conceded in 15 road games.
The statistical matchup is shaped by Nashville's league-best defence (0.77 goals conceded per game) against a Philadelphia attack averaging 2.03 goals per match. Nashville's last five have seen them average 2.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while Philadelphia's games are more open, with 3.0 scored and 1.8 conceded per match in the same span. Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in the majority of their games this season (Nashville 60%, Philadelphia 70%), and Philadelphia's last five have all seen both teams score.
Model projections favour Nashville's home advantage and defensive consistency, but expect Philadelphia's attack to break through. The predicted scoreline is 2-1, with Nashville's superior shot volume (17 per game last five) and clean sheet rate (47% season, 3 in last 5) giving them the edge, but Philadelphia's high-risk, high-reward style keeping the contest open.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.95
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union that most previews miss.
- 1Philadelphia's away matches average 4.4 total goals per game (34 for, 32 against in 15).
- 2Nashville have kept clean sheets in 47% of all matches this season, but only 60% at home in their last five.
- 3BTTS has landed in all of Philadelphia's last five and in 58% of their season matches.
Who do you think wins: Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides average over 2 goals scored per game this season (Nashville 2.13, Philadelphia 2.03), and 66% of their combined matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
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Match Result: Nashville SC Win
Nashville have won 14 of 15 at home (93%), while Philadelphia have lost 7 of 15 away and concede 2.13 per away match.
BTTS: Yes
Philadelphia have scored in all of their last 5 and seen BTTS in each, while Nashville have failed to keep a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
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The Case For This Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction
Statistical indicators point to a high-scoring contest, with both teams boasting prolific attacks but differing defensive reliability. Nashville's home dominance and defensive solidity are set to be tested by a Philadelphia side that scores freely but concedes heavily on the road.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Nashville's unbeaten home record (14W 1D 0L, 45 scored, 12 conceded)
- →Nashville's defence: season-best 0.77 goals conceded per game
Match Context
- →Philadelphia's away matches average 4.4 total goals (34 for, 32 against in 15)
🚩 Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Nashville SC and 5.2 for Philadelphia Union, for an expected total of 11.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 56%.
How Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Nashville SClast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Philadelphia Unionlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
In exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Nashville SC are in commanding form, unbeaten in their last five (DWWWW) and averaging 2.8 goals scored with just 0.4 conceded per match. Philadelphia Union match that unbeaten streak (DWWWW) but have been far more open, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.8 per game, with no clean sheets in their last five.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 3.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
What History Says: Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
The last ten meetings are closely contested, with Nashville winning four, Philadelphia three, and three draws. Nashville have won three of the last four at home, but the most recent fixture ended 0-0. Historically, these matches have trended low-scoring, but current attacking form on both sides suggests a shift.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Nashville SC wins
3
Draws
3
Philadelphia Union wins
Things to Watch: Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds unavailable, so no quantified value edge.
- ⚠️Philadelphia's recent attacking surge (15 goals in last 5) could outperform season averages.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but late lineup changes could affect defensive setups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Nashville SC 2–1 Philadelphia UnionNashville SC are projected to edge this encounter 2-1, driven by their exceptional home record (14 wins from 15) and a defensive unit conceding just 0.77 per game. The biggest risk to this call is Philadelphia's recent attacking form, which has seen them net 15 in five and could expose any lapse from Nashville's back line.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union: Common Questions
Who will win Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
Nashville SC are favoured with a 54% win probability, based on their 14-1-0 home record and league-best defensive rate. Philadelphia's away struggles (7 losses, 32 conceded) make them underdogs at 19%.
Will both teams score in Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
The model gives a 58% probability for both teams to score, as Philadelphia have scored in each of their last five and Nashville have conceded in two of their last five at home.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
There is a 62% model probability for over 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging over 2 goals scored per game and Philadelphia's away matches averaging 4.4 total goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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