Notts County vs Burton Albion Predictions
League One · England
Notts County
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Burton Albion
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.5/10Late Double Lifts Notts County Past 10-Man Burton in Meadow Lane Thriller
Notts County staged a dramatic late comeback to edge Burton Albion 2-1 at Meadow Lane, overturning a first-half deficit with two goals in the final 12 minutes. Despite dominating possession with 60% and firing 20 shots (eight on target), County found themselves trailing after Zac Scutt put Burton ahead in the 22nd minute. The visitors, who managed just two shots all game, were forced onto the back foot—especially after going down to ten men following a red card in the second half. Burton's defensive resilience eventually cracked under relentless pressure. Notts County finally broke through in the 78th minute and sealed victory with a second goal six minutes from time. The match was a tale of County's patience and persistence against a Burton side that battled gamely but was ultimately undone by their numerical disadvantage and mounting fouls (22 in total).
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
22' — Goal
Zac Scutt puts Burton Albion ahead with a rare attack, finishing clinically.
Second Half' — Red Card
Burton Albion reduced to ten men, shifting the momentum decisively.
78' — Goal
Notts County finally break through with a well-worked equalizer.
84' — Goal
Notts County complete the comeback with a late winner, sending Meadow Lane into celebration.
Notts County
Notts County controlled the tempo from the outset, enjoying 60% possession and relentlessly probing the Burton defence. Their 20 shots (eight on target) reflected a side intent on attacking, but for much of the match, they were frustrated by a stubborn Burton rearguard and some wasteful finishing. The breakthrough finally came late, as County capitalized on their numerical advantage and sustained pressure to overturn the deficit. The midfield was particularly influential, with R. Finneran and J. Evans dictating play and keeping the ball moving. The wing-backs, N. Tsaroulla and D. Lipsiuc, provided width and energy, while O. Cooper led the line with persistence, eventually helping unlock the defence.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Burton Albion
Burton Albion took an early lead through Zac Scutt and initially frustrated Notts County with disciplined defending. However, they were unable to maintain any attacking threat, mustering just two shots (one on target) and conceding 60% possession. The second half saw their task become even harder after a red card reduced them to ten men, forcing them into a backs-to-the-wall defensive effort. Despite their resilience and commitment—evidenced by 22 fouls and four yellow cards—Burton's resistance eventually faltered under sustained pressure. The lack of attacking ambition and numerical disadvantage proved costly as County found two late goals to snatch victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, but Notts County made far better use of their structure. County's wing-backs pushed high, stretching Burton and creating overloads in wide areas, while the midfield duo of Finneran and Evans recycled possession and probed for openings. Their pressing forced Burton into mistakes and limited the visitors to only two shots. After the red card, Burton shifted even deeper, sacrificing any attacking ambition for defensive solidity. County responded by increasing their attacking substitutions and pushing more bodies forward, eventually overwhelming the depleted Burton back line. Set pieces and wide play became increasingly important as County searched for—and found—late goals.
Turning Point
The red card to Burton Albion in the second half, which handed Notts County the momentum they needed to mount their late comeback.
Man of the Match
O. Cooper
Led the line with relentless energy, played a decisive role in both late goals, and was a constant threat.
Notts County vs Burton Albion: Match Preview
Notts County and Burton Albion enter this League One fixture level on points, each having opened the campaign with a 1-1 draw. Both sides' recent form is unremarkable: Notts County are winless in five (form string DDLLL), while Burton have managed just one win in their last five (DLWDL), with both teams struggling to create clear scoring chances. Their league records—one point from one match, one goal for, one against—underline the symmetry in their early-season trajectories.
From a statistical perspective, neither attack has shown much cutting edge. Notts County's last five games yield just 0.4 goals scored per match and a meagre 0.4 shots on target, while Burton's 0.8 goals and 1.6 shots on target per game are only marginally better. Both sides have failed to score in at least one of their last five, and clean sheets have been rare (one each in that span). The expected goal environment is low, with under 2.5 goals favoured at 68%. Set-piece and discipline numbers are also subdued, with both teams averaging under 2 corners and 1 yellow card per game recently.
Given the near-identical scoring and concession rates, the model sees little to separate these sides. The most probable outcome is a draw (38%), with 1-1 the likeliest scoreline. While Notts County have a slight historical edge in head-to-heads, the current statistical shape points to a contest decided by fine margins, with neither side likely to take significant risks.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
28%
BTTS: Yes
36%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Notts County vs Burton Albion Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Notts County vs Burton Albion that most previews miss.
- 1Both teams' only league match this season finished 1-1, and their combined last 10 matches average under 2.0 total goals.
- 2Notts County have failed to score in three of their last five, while Burton have scored just four goals in their last five outings.
- 3First-half goals have been scarce: Notts County have not scored before half-time in any of their last five, and Burton have only three first-half goals in that span.
Who do you think wins: Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Notts County vs Burton Albion(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides averaged exactly 1.0 goals for and against in their only league match, with neither attack nor defence showing a clear edge; the draw, and specifically 1-1, is the highest-probability single scoreline at 23%.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Goal rates are modest: Notts County's last five matches average 2.0 total goals, Burton's 1.8, and both teams' only league game finished 1-1; the model puts under 2.5 at 68%.
Read more ↓
More League One Predictions
The Case For This Notts County vs Burton Albion Prediction
Statistically, this fixture profiles as a low-event contest between two sides with near-identical scoring and concession rates, both still seeking a first league win. The underlying numbers suggest neither team is likely to dominate, with the draw marginally more probable than either side taking all three points.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Neither side has won in their last five competitive and friendly outings, with both showing limited attacking output.
Defence
- →Notts County average just 0.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over their last five, while Burton average 0.8 scored and 1 conceded.
Match Context
- →Both teams have started the league season with a 1-1 draw and identical points, goals for, and against.
🚩 Notts County vs Burton Albion Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Notts County and 3.8 for Burton Albion, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Notts County and Burton Albion Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Notts County vs Burton Albion Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Notts Countylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burton Albionlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Notts County are winless in their last five matches, drawing their only league fixture 1-1 with Leicester and struggling for goals throughout pre-season. Burton Albion have fared only slightly better, posting a single win in five and also opening their league campaign with a 1-1 draw. Both teams' recent form suggests limited attacking threat and a tendency toward low-scoring games.
Notts County vs Burton Albion — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: Notts County vs Burton Albion
Notts County have won both previous meetings with Burton Albion, including a 2-1 away victory in the 2024 EFL Trophy. However, the sample is limited and the historical edge is not pronounced enough to outweigh current form and statistical parity.
Notts County vs Burton Albion Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
3
Notts County wins
0
Draws
0
Burton Albion wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Notts County vs Burton Albion
With bookmaker odds unavailable, the model cannot identify explicit value edges. However, the probabilities suggest the market may overestimate the likelihood of a decisive result, with the draw and under 2.5 goals both more probable than typical for this level. If market odds on the draw or unders are generous, those would be the areas to monitor for value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Notts County vs Burton Albion
- ⚠️Only one league match played for each side—seasonal averages are not yet robust.
- ⚠️No data yet on either team's away form this season.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Notts County 1–1 Burton AlbionThe model projects a 1-1 draw, anchored by both teams' identical league starts and low attacking output. The strongest data point is the matching 1.0 goals for and against per game in league play, reinforced by low shot and chance creation. The main risk is that early-season volatility or a defensive lapse tips the balance, but the underlying rates point squarely to a stalemate.
Notts County vs Burton Albion: Common Questions
Who will win Notts County vs Burton Albion?
The model gives Notts County a 36% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 26% chance, and the draw is slightly more likely at 38%. Both teams have started the season with a 1-1 draw and show similar statistical profiles.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 68% probability, based on both teams averaging under a goal per game in their last five matches and their only league games finishing 1-1.
Are both teams likely to score in Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Both teams to score is rated at 51%, reflecting the modest attacking output and the fact that both sides scored in their only league match so far.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Notts County vs Burton Albion: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.