Notts County vs Stevenage Predictions
League One · England
Notts County
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Stevenage
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Recommended Bets: Notts County vs Stevenage
Notts County vs Stevenage: Match Preview
Notts County and Stevenage come into this fixture separated by just two points and one league position, both sitting in the lower mid-table with similar records. Notts County have found some momentum with back-to-back wins, but their home record (2-2-2) reflects a side that struggles to dominate at Meadow Lane. Stevenage, meanwhile, have been difficult to beat on the road, drawing three of six away and conceding just over a goal per game.
The statistical profile points to a balanced contest: Notts County's defensive improvement is clear in their last five (0.6 goals conceded per game, three clean sheets), while Stevenage's attack is steady but unspectacular, averaging 1.42 goals per game for the season but only 1.2 over the last five. Both sides are below the league average for over 2.5 goals (Notts County 25%, Stevenage 50%), and their shot and possession numbers suggest a game likely to be decided by fine margins rather than open play.
With neither side showing a clear edge in attack or defence and both trending towards low-scoring, closely contested matches, the model expects a tactical, even affair. A 1-1 draw emerges as the likeliest outcome, with both teams' propensity for draws and their modest attacking rates driving the prediction.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Notts County vs Stevenage Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Notts County vs Stevenage that most previews miss.
- 1Notts County have seen under 2.5 goals in 75% of their league matches this season (9 of 12).
- 2Stevenage have drawn 50% of their away league games (3 out of 6), with an average away goal difference of just +1.
- 3Both teams have scored exactly four first-half goals in their last five matches, pointing to slow starts.
Who do you think wins: Notts County vs Stevenage?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Notts County vs Stevenage(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides have drawn five of twelve league matches, and their season scoring/conceding rates (Notts County 1.08/1.17, Stevenage 1.42/1.08) point to a balanced contest with a low probability of a high-scoring outcome.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Notts County's home matches have seen just 13 goals in 6 games (2.17 per game), and their season over 2.5 rate is only 25%, while Stevenage's away games average 2.5 goals with a 50% over 2.5 rate, but recent form and underlying shot data suggest a slightly lower goal environment.
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More League One Predictions
The Case For This Notts County vs Stevenage Prediction
This fixture pairs two mid-table sides with nearly identical records and goal differences, both averaging just over a goal scored and conceded per game. Notts County arrive on a two-match winning streak, but their overall home record is balanced (2W, 2D, 2L), while Stevenage have drawn half their away fixtures and display similar underlying metrics. Statistically, the matchup is defined by moderate attacking output and relatively solid defences. Notts County's last five league matches show a defensive tightening—just 0.6 goals conceded per game—while Stevenage's away defence has allowed seven in six. Both teams average under four shots on target per match, and their combined season over 2.5 goal rate is just 37.5%. First-half goals are rare, with both sides netting only four each in their last five matches before the break. Given the convergence of scoring rates, home/away splits, and a lack of major injuries or suspensions, the model expects a low-event contest where neither attack consistently breaks down the other. The most likely result is a draw, with 1-1 the modal scoreline, reflecting both clubs' tendency to share points and the statistical shape of their seasons.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Notts County average 1.08 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per league game; Stevenage 1.42 scored, 1.08 conceded.
Match Context
- →Both teams have drawn five of their twelve league matches, indicating a high draw probability.
- →Combined, their last ten league matches have produced just 18 goals (1.8 per game).
🚩 Notts County vs Stevenage Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Notts County and 4.3 for Stevenage, for an expected total of 9.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 56% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Notts County and Stevenage Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Notts County vs Stevenage Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Notts Countylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Stevenagelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Notts County have found stability with a WWDWL run in their last five, including three clean sheets and only one match where they failed to score. Stevenage's form is mixed (WDLWL), with two wins and two clean sheets but also two matches without a goal, reflecting their patchy away output.
Notts County vs Stevenage — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Notts County vs Stevenage
Notts County have a slight historical edge in this fixture, winning five of the last ten meetings, but draws have been frequent, including a 3-3 and two 1-1 results. The last competitive encounter was in 2019, so current squad strengths may differ significantly from past trends.
Notts County vs Stevenage Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Notts County wins
3
Draws
2
Stevenage wins
Things to Watch: Notts County vs Stevenage
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value and expected value calculations are unavailable.
- ⚠️Recent H2H data is outdated (last meeting in 2019); current squads and tactics may differ significantly.
- ⚠️Both sides' small-sample recent form could mask underlying shifts in attack or defence.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Notts County 1–1 StevenageA 1-1 draw is the most probable result, driven by both sides' season-long tendency to draw and their nearly identical scoring and concession rates. The main risk to this call is if either side converts a higher share of their limited chances, but the underlying rates and recent defensive form make a low-scoring stalemate the statistical baseline.
Notts County vs Stevenage: Common Questions
Who will win Notts County vs Stevenage?
The model gives Notts County a 37% chance to win, Stevenage 27%, and a draw 36%. Both teams have drawn five of twelve league matches, making a stalemate the most likely outcome.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Stevenage?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48%, with both sides averaging just over a goal scored and conceded per game and only one BTTS result each in their last five matches.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 59%, reflecting Notts County's 25% over 2.5 rate and Stevenage's recent trend towards lower-scoring games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Notts County vs Stevenage: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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