Novorizontino vs Vila Nova Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Novorizontino
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Vila Nova
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Novorizontino or Draw
@ 1.5(+6% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Novorizontino Edge Vila Nova in Dramatic Late Finish
Novorizontino clinched a thrilling 2-1 victory over Vila Nova at the Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, thanks to a dramatic late winner. The hosts struck first in the 6th minute, capitalizing on an energetic start, but Vila Nova responded before halftime to level the score. Despite Vila Nova enjoying more of the ball (56% possession), Novorizontino's resilience and clinical edge proved decisive, as they found the net again in the dying moments to secure all three points. The contest was fiercely competitive, with both sides picking up yellow cards and Vila Nova seeing red late on. Novorizontino managed 12 shots (3 on target) to Vila Nova's 5 (2 on target), showing greater attacking intent. Tactical adjustments and disciplined defending from both teams kept the game finely balanced until the hosts' late surge tipped the scales.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
6' — Goal
Novorizontino open the scoring with an early strike, taking control of the match.
41' — Goal
André Luís levels for Vila Nova, capitalizing on a period of sustained pressure.
80' — Red Card
Vila Nova reduced to ten men, shifting the momentum back to Novorizontino.
90' — Goal
Robson nets a dramatic late winner for Novorizontino, sealing the victory.
Novorizontino
Novorizontino started brightly, grabbing an early lead that set the tone for a proactive display. Despite ceding the majority of possession, they were efficient with their chances, registering 12 shots and keeping Vila Nova's attack largely at bay. The team showed grit and organization, particularly after conceding the equalizer, and their late winner was a testament to their persistence and tactical discipline.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Vila Nova
Vila Nova controlled the tempo for large stretches, enjoying 56% possession and dictating play in midfield. Their equalizer before halftime was well-earned, but they struggled to create clear-cut chances, managing just 5 shots and 2 on target. A late red card compounded their woes as they pushed for a winner, ultimately leaving them exposed for Novorizontino's decisive goal.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, seeking to balance defensive solidity with attacking width. Vila Nova's superior possession reflected their focus on controlling the midfield, but they struggled to break down Novorizontino's organized back line. Novorizontino, meanwhile, were content to absorb pressure and strike on the counter, making good use of their wide players and quick transitions. The match saw frequent tactical fouling and several bookings, with Vila Nova's late red card forcing them to abandon their measured approach in search of a winner, ultimately leaving gaps at the back.
Turning Point
The red card to Vila Nova in the 80th minute, which handed Novorizontino the initiative and led to the late winner.
Man of the Match
Robson
Delivered the decisive goal in the 90th minute and was a constant threat up front.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Novorizontino vs Vila Nova Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Novorizontino vs Vila Nova(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.2
Both teams are strong defensively and have high draw rates this season, with Novorizontino drawing 6 of 13 and Vila Nova 4 of 13. The model's probability for a draw is higher than the implied odds, indicating value.
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Double Chance: Novorizontino or Draw@ 1.5
Novorizontino are tough to beat at home (only 1 home loss), and Vila Nova's away record is good but not dominant. The model gives a solid edge to 1X at the available odds.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Novorizontino vs Vila Nova Prediction
This is a clash between two of Serie B's most consistent sides, both sitting in the top five and boasting strong defensive records. Novorizontino are unbeaten in their last five league games, while Vila Nova have won four of their last five but are coming off a narrow away defeat. Expect a tight, tactical battle with limited clear chances and a high probability of a low-scoring draw.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Novorizontino have drawn 6 of 13 league matches and are unbeaten in their last five.
Attack
- →Vila Nova have won 4 of their last 5, but their away scoring rate is modest (1.14 goals per away game).
- →H2H history is balanced, with 3 draws in the last 8 meetings and most matches low-scoring.
Defence
- →Both teams average under 1 goal conceded per game this season.
- →Recent matches for both sides show strong defensive discipline and few failed to score.
🚩 Novorizontino vs Vila Nova Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Novorizontino and 5 for Vila Nova, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Novorizontino and Vila Nova Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Novorizontino vs Vila Nova Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Novorizontinolast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vila Novalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Novorizontino are riding a five-game unbeaten streak, showing resilience with draws against tough opponents and a convincing 4-0 away win at Goias. Vila Nova, despite a recent loss at Cuiaba, have won four of their last five, including two away victories, and have kept three clean sheets in that span. Both teams enter with strong momentum, but Novorizontino's consistency at home and Vila Nova's recent defensive solidity suggest a close contest.
Novorizontino vs Vila Nova — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Novorizontino vs Vila Nova
Head-to-head meetings have been tight, with draws common and neither side dominating. Novorizontino have a slight edge at home, but most games are decided by a single goal or end level, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring, competitive match.
Novorizontino vs Vila Nova Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
4
Novorizontino wins
3
Draws
2
Vila Nova wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Novorizontino vs Vila Nova
The model sees the draw as slightly undervalued by typical market odds, given both teams' high draw rates and defensive strengths. The double chance (1X) market also offers a small edge, as Novorizontino are tough to beat at home. Over/Under and BTTS markets are closely aligned with model probabilities, suggesting limited value there.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Novorizontino vs Vila Nova
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at data cutoff; value calculations use typical market ranges.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late changes could impact defensive solidity or attacking output.
- ⚠️Set piece and discipline data are based on recent averages, but variance is possible in a high-stakes match.
- ⚠️Both teams are healthy with no reported injuries, but squad rotation is possible.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Novorizontino vs Vila Nova: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.