Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor Predictions
1. Lig · Turkey
Pendikspor
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Ümraniyespor
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor: Match Preview
Pendikspor enter this fixture sitting mid-table with five points from four matches, having drawn both home games so far. Their attack has been consistent—scoring in every league outing—but defensive issues are evident, with nine goals conceded and no clean sheets. Ümraniyespor, meanwhile, are still searching for a first win, drawing three of their four matches and showing a similar vulnerability at the back, conceding five times and only managing one clean sheet.
Statistically, the matchup is shaped by both sides' tendency to concede and their willingness to attack. Pendikspor average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game, with 75% of their matches going over 2.5 goals. Ümraniyespor's away record is less potent (1.5 goals scored, 2 conceded per away game), but they have managed to score in both away fixtures. Both teams have a high BTTS rate (Pendikspor 5/5, Ümraniyespor 4/5 in last five), and neither side has shown a reliable defensive structure, as reflected in their low clean sheet percentages.
Given the underlying rates, the model expects an open contest with both teams likely to score. Pendikspor's slightly higher attacking output and home advantage give them the edge, but the persistent draw trend in their H2H history tempers confidence. Expect a match with chances at both ends, a strong likelihood of goals before half-time, and a result that could easily finish level if defensive lapses are punished.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor that most previews miss.
- 1Pendikspor's matches have seen both teams score in all five of their most recent league games.
- 2Ümraniyespor have drawn three of their four league matches this season, and five of the last eight H2H meetings have ended level.
- 3Pendikspor's home matches average 3.0 total goals per game this season, above the league median.
Who do you think wins: Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in every one of Pendikspor's last five league matches and in four of Ümraniyespor's last five, with both averaging two goals conceded per game over their last five.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Pendikspor's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 75% of their league games this season, and both teams' defensive records suggest a higher-than-average goal expectation.
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More 1. Lig Predictions
The Case For This Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a moderately high-scoring contest between two sides whose defensive frailties have been exposed early in the campaign. Pendikspor's attack (1.75 goals per game) and Ümraniyespor's tendency to concede (1.25 per game, but 2.0 over the last five) point to a strong likelihood of both teams finding the net. The distribution of recent results and shot volumes suggests a slight edge for the hosts, but the draw remains a live outcome given the high draw rate in the H2H and both sides' inconsistent form.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Pendikspor have scored in every league match this season but have yet to keep a clean sheet.
- →Ümraniyespor are winless in the league (0W, 3D, 1L), with three draws from four and a single clean sheet.
- →Both teams average at least 10 shots per match, but neither defence has shown consistency.
🚩 Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Pendikspor and 5.4 for Ümraniyespor, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Pendikspor and Ümraniyespor Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Pendiksporlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ümraniyesporlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Pendikspor arrive with a mixed record—one win, two draws, and one loss—but have scored in every match, with a notable 3-2 away win at Antalyaspor. Ümraniyespor remain winless, drawing three of four, and have struggled to keep opponents out, conceding twice in each of their last two outings. Both sides have shown attacking intent but defensive instability.
Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor
The recent head-to-head record is dominated by draws, with five of the last eight meetings ending level, including a 0-0 in the most recent clash. Pendikspor's 3-0 home win last season stands out as the only clear home victory in this period, but otherwise margins have been tight.
Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
1
Pendikspor wins
5
Draws
2
Ümraniyespor wins
Things to Watch: Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor
- ⚠️Small sample size: only four league matches played by each side this season.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value analysis is limited.
- ⚠️Recent H2H meetings have produced a high draw rate (5 draws in 8).
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Pendikspor 2–1 ÜmraniyesporThe model forecasts a 2-1 win for Pendikspor, with the strongest data point being their 1.75 goals per game scoring rate and 75% over 2.5 goals match rate. The main risk is the persistent draw pattern in the H2H, as well as both teams' defensive volatility, which could see either side drop points from a winning position.
Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor: Common Questions
Who will win Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Pendikspor are given a 43% chance of victory, with the draw at 34% and Ümraniyespor at 23%. The hosts have shown more attacking output, but the high draw rate in H2H and both teams' defensive records mean all outcomes are plausible.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Yes is favoured at 64% probability. Both teams have scored in all of Pendikspor's league matches and in four of Ümraniyespor's last five, with neither side keeping clean sheets reliably.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 57%, reflecting Pendikspor's 75% over 2.5 rate and both teams' average of at least two goals conceded per match over the last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.