Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon Predictions
Super League · China
Qingdao Youth Island
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Qingdao Jonoon
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Qingdao Youth Island Win
Match Result
7/10Qingdao Youth Island Outclass Jonoon in Derby with 2-0 Victory
Qingdao Youth Island claimed local bragging rights with a convincing 2-0 win over Qingdao Jonoon at the Guzhenkou University Sports Center. The hosts controlled much of the contest, enjoying 55% possession and making their dominance count with goals in either half. Jonoon, despite registering more total shots, struggled to convert their opportunities and were ultimately undone by a lack of discipline, finishing the match with just ten men after a second-half red card. The breakthrough arrived in the 40th minute, giving Youth Island a deserved lead before halftime. Jonoon responded with attacking intent after the break but were stifled by a resolute home defense. The match's decisive moment came in the 64th minute as Youth Island doubled their advantage, effectively sealing the result. Tempers flared for Jonoon, reflected in their five yellow cards and a sending-off, as they failed to recover from the deficit.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
40' — Goal
Aziz breaks the deadlock with a well-taken finish for Youth Island.
64' — Goal
Youth Island double their lead, effectively sealing the win.
70' — Red Card
Jonoon reduced to ten men after a second yellow card, compounding their woes.
Qingdao Youth Island
Youth Island delivered a composed and effective performance, making the most of their 55% possession to dictate the tempo and create meaningful chances. Their attacking quartet, operating in a 4-2-3-1, combined well to break down Jonoon's defense, while the backline remained largely untroubled, limiting the visitors to just two shots on target. The home side's discipline and organization were key, conceding only one yellow card and maintaining focus throughout.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Qingdao Jonoon
Jonoon showed flashes of attacking intent, registering 11 shots, but only two tested the goalkeeper. Their 4-4-2 setup struggled to gain a foothold in midfield, and their frustration was evident in a flurry of bookings and a costly red card. Defensive lapses and indiscipline undermined any chance of a comeback, as they failed to convert their efforts into goals and lost control in key moments.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Youth Island's 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to control the midfield, with the double pivot shielding the defense and enabling the attacking trio to find pockets of space between Jonoon's lines. Their build-up play was patient, focusing on high-percentage chances rather than speculative efforts. Jonoon, in contrast, set up in a traditional 4-4-2 but struggled to match Youth Island's midfield numbers, leading to a lack of possession and forced turnovers. The visitors' attempts to press were often mistimed, resulting in fouls and ultimately a red card that left them exposed. Set pieces were not a major factor, with only four corners between both sides.
Turning Point
The second goal in the 64th minute, which gave Youth Island a commanding lead and sapped Jonoon's resolve.
Man of the Match
Aziz
Opened the scoring and was a constant threat, setting the tone for Youth Island's victory.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon: Match Preview
Qingdao Youth Island arrive in buoyant mood, having lost just once in their last eight league matches and extending their unbeaten home record to ten games (3W, 7D). Their recent form string of WLDLW includes a gritty 1-0 away win last time out and a comeback victory over Shanghai SIPG earlier this month. Jonoon, by contrast, are in the midst of a crisis: four consecutive league defeats, 11 losses in 20 overall, and a defence that has shipped 10 goals in their last three outings. With the visitors rooted to the foot of the table and desperate for a turnaround, the stakes are enormous.
Statistically, this is a clash of Youth Island's home resilience against Jonoon's away frailty. The hosts average just 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last five, but their defensive discipline at home (nine conceded in ten) is a clear strength. Jonoon's away numbers are grim: just one win and 25 goals conceded in ten, with their last five league matches averaging three goals against per game. Both teams tend to start slow—only one first-half goal each in their last five—but Jonoon's second-half collapses have been costly. Set-piece threat is modest on both sides, but Youth Island's 10 corners last time out hints at growing attacking intent.
The model expects Youth Island's momentum and home solidity to edge out Jonoon's chaotic attack. While Jonoon have shown they can score (averaging one per game in their last five), their defensive structure is in tatters, and Youth Island's ability to manage tight games at home should prove decisive. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, with the hosts' unbeaten streak and Jonoon's away woes the key drivers—though Jonoon's habit of late goals and a history of close H2H matches keep the door open for drama.
How Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Qingdao Youth Islandlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Qingdao Jonoonlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Qingdao Youth Island are trending upward, losing just once in their last eight league matches and extending their unbeaten home run to ten. Their recent results include a hard-fought away win and a comeback over a top side, showing resilience and belief. Jonoon, meanwhile, are spiralling—four straight league defeats, 15 goals conceded in that stretch, and a solitary point from their last five. The momentum is firmly with the hosts.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon that most previews miss.
- 1Youth Island have drawn 70% of their home league games (7 of 10), but are unbeaten at home all season.
- 2Jonoon have conceded at least twice in five of their last six away matches, and have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five.
- 3Four of Jonoon's last five league games have seen both teams score, despite their poor overall form.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
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The Case For This Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction
Momentum is the defining feature as Qingdao Youth Island, unbeaten at home and riding a strong run, welcome a Jonoon side in freefall and desperate for points. The hosts' ability to grind out results, especially at home, contrasts sharply with Jonoon's defensive collapse and travel sickness. Expect Youth Island to dictate terms, but Jonoon's attacking intent and recent goal output mean they can't be written off entirely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Youth Island are unbeaten in 10 home league matches this season (3W, 7D).
Defence
- →Jonoon have lost four straight league games and conceded 10 in their last three.
- →Jonoon have the league's worst away record (1W, 1D, 8L, 25 conceded in 10).
Where the Model Sees Value: Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Qingdao Youth Island Win
Qingdao Youth Island are unbeaten at home this season (3W, 7D, 0L) and have lost just once in their last five league matches, while Jonoon have lost four in a row and have the league's worst away record (1W, 1D, 8L, 25 conceded).
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Jonoon's last five league games average 4 goals per match (scored 5, conceded 15), and 60% of their season matches go over 2.5, while Youth Island's attack is trending up at home.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Jonoon have failed to score in just one of their last five, and both teams have scored in four of Jonoon's last five league games.
More Super League Predictions
🚩 Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.8 corners for Qingdao Youth Island and 4.6 for Qingdao Jonoon, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 23%.
What History Says: Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon
The head-to-head record is finely balanced, with each side winning twice and three draws in seven meetings. Recent encounters have been tight, with the last three league clashes producing just five goals in total and two ending all square. Youth Island edged the last home meeting 1-0, but neither side has dominated this fixture historically.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
2
Qingdao Youth Island wins
3
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon wins
Things to Watch: Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value edges and EV cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Both sides played cup matches recently, raising potential for squad rotation or fatigue.
- ⚠️Youth Island's attack is not prolific (0.8 goals/game last five), so reliance on Jonoon's defensive frailty for over/BTTS angles increases risk.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Qingdao Youth Island 2–1 Qingdao JonoonQingdao Youth Island's unbeaten home record and Jonoon's four-game losing streak point to a narrow home win, with a 2-1 scoreline reflecting Youth Island's defensive strength and Jonoon's tendency to concede heavily on their travels. The single strongest data point is Jonoon's 25 goals conceded in 10 away games. The biggest risk is Youth Island's tendency to draw at home—seven times already this season—so a late Jonoon equaliser or a cagey stalemate cannot be ruled out.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon: Common Questions
Who will win Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
The model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 48% chance of victory, with a 32% probability for a draw and just 20% for a Jonoon win. Youth Island are unbeaten at home, while Jonoon have lost four straight and have the league's worst away record.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
There's a 58% probability of both teams scoring, as Jonoon have managed to find the net in four of their last five league games, but have also conceded heavily during their losing streak.
Can Qingdao Youth Island's unbeaten home run continue?
Youth Island have not lost in ten home league matches this season (3W, 7D), and the model rates their chances of avoiding defeat at 80% (double chance 1X), given Jonoon's poor away form and defensive struggles.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results