QPR vs Burnley Predictions
Championship · England
QPR
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Burnley
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: QPR vs Burnley
QPR vs Burnley: Match Preview
QPR come into this fixture on the back of a 5-0 demolition of Swansea, part of a five-match run that has seen them average 2.4 goals per game and climb to 8th in the table. Their home form has been a foundation: three wins and two draws from six, with 13 goals scored at Loftus Road. Burnley, by contrast, are mired in 22nd, winless in their last three and leaking goals at an alarming rate—25 conceded in 12, including 15 in just six away trips.
The statistical matchup is stark: QPR's attack is generating 14.6 shots and 5.2 on target per game over the last five, while Burnley's away defence is conceding 2.5 goals per away outing and has managed just one clean sheet in twelve matches (8% clean sheet rate). Both teams have a strong over 2.5 trend (QPR 58%, Burnley 75%), and Burnley have scored in every one of their last five, suggesting both teams to score is a live angle. First-half goals are common for both sides (QPR 8, Burnley 7 in last five), so an early breakthrough is likely.
The model expects a high-tempo contest with QPR's home attack exploiting Burnley's defensive frailties, but Burnley's attack—averaging 1.8 goals in the last five—should not be discounted. The likeliest outcome is a 2-1 home win, but the distribution is wide, and a high-scoring draw remains plausible if QPR cannot contain Burnley's sporadic attacking surges.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
QPR vs Burnley Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind QPR vs Burnley that most previews miss.
- 1Burnley have kept just one clean sheet in twelve league matches this season (8.3%), the lowest rate in the division.
- 2QPR's home matches average 3.0 total goals per game (13 scored, 5 conceded in 6).
- 3Both teams have scored in 7 of Burnley's 12 league games (58%), and in 3 of QPR's last 5.
Who do you think wins: QPR vs Burnley?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: QPR vs Burnley(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides trend high for over 2.5 goals (QPR 58%, Burnley 75% season rate), and the recent five-match averages show 4.0 and 3.6 total goals per game respectively.
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BTTS: Yes
Burnley have scored in all of their last five, while QPR have failed to score just once in that span; both defences concede at least a goal a game.
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Match Result: QPR Win
QPR's home record (3W-2D-1L, 13:5 goal difference) and Burnley's away defensive problems (15 conceded in 6) tilt the balance, but high draw risk keeps confidence moderate.
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More Championship Predictions
The Case For This QPR vs Burnley Prediction
This fixture pits a QPR side with a robust home attack against a Burnley team struggling to keep goals out on their travels. The statistical shape suggests a high-probability goal environment, with QPR's 1.67 goals scored per game (season) and Burnley's 2.08 conceded per game (season) both above league average. Recent form amplifies this: QPR have averaged 2.4 goals scored in their last five, Burnley 1.8, while both are conceding at least 1.4 per match over that period. The likeliest outcome is a home win with both teams on the scoresheet, but the distribution is broad enough to keep the draw and a 2-2 in play.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →QPR's home attack: 13 goals in 6 home matches (2.17 per game).
Defence
- →Burnley's away defence: 15 conceded in 6 away (2.5 per game), lowest clean sheet rate in the league (8%).
Match Context
- →Both teams trend over 2.5 goals: QPR 58%, Burnley 75% season rate.
🚩 QPR vs Burnley Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for QPR and 4.4 for Burnley, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 38%.
How QPR and Burnley Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
QPR vs Burnley Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
QPRlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burnleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
QPR are trending upwards, unbeaten in four of their last five and scoring freely—11 goals in their last three home matches. Burnley, meanwhile, are winless in three and have lost back-to-back games, conceding six goals in their last two. The momentum and underlying numbers both favour QPR heading into this fixture.
QPR vs Burnley — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
What History Says: QPR vs Burnley
Burnley have historically had the upper hand in this matchup, winning five of the last ten meetings, including a 5-0 rout at Loftus Road in April 2025. However, QPR have taken points in four of those ten, and recent encounters have often been high scoring, with four of the last six producing at least three goals.
QPR vs Burnley Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
QPR wins
3
Draws
5
Burnley wins
Things to Watch: QPR vs Burnley
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges and EV cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Burnley's attack has shown flashes (4-0 at Watford), so variance is elevated.
- ⚠️QPR's defensive numbers are solid at home but not elite; a high-scoring draw is plausible.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
QPR 2–1 BurnleyThe model projects a 2-1 win for QPR, driven by Burnley's league-worst away defensive record (15 conceded in 6) and QPR's consistent home scoring. The main risk lies in Burnley's attack, which has produced at least one goal in each of their last five and could turn this into a shootout or salvage a draw if QPR's defence wobbles.
QPR vs Burnley: Common Questions
Who will win QPR vs Burnley?
QPR are favoured with a 43% probability of victory, compared to 31% for the draw and 26% for Burnley. The model leans QPR due to their strong home attack and Burnley's away defensive issues.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in QPR vs Burnley?
There's a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging high totals—QPR's matches go over 2.5 at a 58% rate, Burnley's at 75% this season.
Are both teams likely to score?
Yes, both teams to score is rated at 61% probability. Burnley have scored in each of their last five, and QPR have only failed to score once in that span.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for QPR vs Burnley: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 27 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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