Racing Santander vs Alaves Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Racing Santander
AI Predicted Score
0 - 2
Alaves
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
Racing Santander vs Alaves: Match Preview
Racing Santander enter this friendly on the back of three consecutive defeats, having failed to score in any of those matches and conceding eight goals in the process. Their only recent positive result was a 1-1 draw away at Real Sociedad, but overall, the attack has been blunt and their defensive record porous. Alaves, meanwhile, have enjoyed a productive pre-season, winning two and drawing one, while conceding just one goal in three matches and scoring five themselves.
The matchup is defined by a stark contrast in recent scoring and defensive rates. Racing's attack averages just 1.0 shot on target per game over their last five, with a solitary goal scored in that span. Alaves, on the other hand, have averaged 1.67 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded per friendly, with three clean sheets in their last five. In head-to-head meetings, Alaves have also had the upper hand, unbeaten in the last four encounters and shutting Racing out in the last two friendlies.
Given these rates, the model expects a low-scoring match with Alaves controlling proceedings. Racing's inability to create or convert chances suggests they will struggle to break down an organised Alaves defence, while the visitors' steady if unspectacular attack should be enough to secure a comfortable win. The likeliest outcome is a 2-0 victory for Alaves, with the most plausible deviation being Racing finding a rare goal against the run of play.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.65
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
38%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Racing Santander vs Alaves Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Racing Santander vs Alaves that most previews miss.
- 1Racing Santander have failed to score in four of their last five matches, with an average of just 0.25 goals per game in pre-season.
- 2Alaves have kept clean sheets in two of three pre-season friendlies, conceding only once in 270 minutes.
- 3Across the last four head-to-head meetings, Racing have scored just two goals, while Alaves have found the net six times.
Who do you think wins: Racing Santander vs Alaves?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Racing Santander vs Alaves(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No
Racing Santander have failed to score in four of their last five and average just 0.25 goals per game this pre-season, while Alaves have kept clean sheets in two of three friendlies and conceded only 0.33 per game.
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Match Result: Alaves Win
Alaves are unbeaten in pre-season (W2 D1), scoring 1.67 per game and conceding just 0.33, while Racing Santander have lost three straight and managed only one goal in four friendlies.
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More Friendlies Clubs Predictions
The Case For This Racing Santander vs Alaves Prediction
Alaves arrive in far stronger form, having conceded only once in their last three matches and scoring at a rate nearly seven times higher than Racing Santander across pre-season. Racing, by contrast, have suffered three consecutive defeats, failing to score in each, and their only recent goal came in a dead-rubber at the end of last season. The statistical profile points to a low-scoring contest, with Alaves' defensive solidity and Racing's attacking struggles likely to define the outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head favours Alaves, unbeaten in four meetings with two wins and two draws.
Attack
- →Racing Santander average just 0.25 goals per game in pre-season friendlies, with three consecutive matches without scoring.
Defence
- →Alaves have conceded only once in three pre-season games and kept two clean sheets.
🚩 Racing Santander vs Alaves Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Racing Santander and 5.4 for Alaves, for an expected total of 9.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 66% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Racing Santander and Alaves Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Racing Santander vs Alaves Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Racing Santanderlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Alaveslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Racing Santander are on a poor run, losing three consecutive pre-season matches without scoring and conceding eight in the process. Alaves, by contrast, are unbeaten in three pre-season games, winning two and conceding only once, signalling a clear momentum advantage for the visitors.
Racing Santander vs Alaves — Last 4 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Racing Santander vs Alaves
Alaves have dominated the recent head-to-head, unbeaten in the last four meetings with Racing Santander. The last two friendlies between these sides ended 1-2 and 0-0, with Racing failing to score at home in both. The trend favours a low-scoring Alaves result.
Racing Santander vs Alaves Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
0
Racing Santander wins
2
Draws
2
Alaves wins
Things to Watch: Racing Santander vs Alaves
- ⚠️Both teams are in pre-season, so squad rotation and experimentation may affect lineup strength and tactical consistency.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Limited sample size for both teams' current season data and lack of detailed match stats for recent friendlies.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Racing Santander 0–2 AlavesThe model forecasts a 2-0 win for Alaves, driven by their defensive record of just 0.33 goals conceded per game this pre-season and Racing Santander's ongoing attacking woes. The single strongest data point is Racing's three straight matches without a goal. The main risk is that pre-season volatility or heavy rotation allows Racing to capitalise on a defensive lapse, but on underlying rates, Alaves are clear favourites.
Racing Santander vs Alaves: Common Questions
Who will win Racing Santander vs Alaves?
Alaves are strong favourites, with a 59% probability of victory compared to just 13% for Racing Santander. The visitors have not lost in pre-season and have a much better scoring and defensive record.
Will both teams score in Racing Santander vs Alaves?
The probability of both teams scoring is just 26%. Racing Santander have failed to score in three straight matches and average only 0.25 goals per game, while Alaves have kept two clean sheets in three pre-season games.
Is this likely to be a high-scoring match (over 2.5 goals)?
The model gives a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals, with under 2.5 favoured at 59%. Both sides' recent matches have trended low-scoring, especially with Racing's lack of attacking output.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Racing Santander vs Alaves: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.