Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Radomiak Radom
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Lech Poznan
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 4.7(+20% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 0.80
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4.7
The model assigns a 41% chance to over 2.5 goals, much higher than the 21.3% implied by odds of 4.7. Both teams have high season over 2.5 rates (Radomiak 58%, Lech 65%), and recent H2H meetings have often seen 3+ goals.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.75
Draws are common in this H2H (5 of last 10), and Lech have drawn 11 of 32 this season. The model's probability (27%) is just above the implied (26.7%), suggesting slight value.
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BTTS: No@ 2.48
While both teams have moderate BTTS rates, Lech have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 and Radomiak have failed to score once. The model's 47% probability for 'no' is above the odds-implied 40.3%.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Prediction
Lech Poznan travel to Radomiak Radom as league leaders, aiming to consolidate their position against a mid-table side in strong home form. Radomiak have won three straight, but Lech's away record and attacking output make them favorites. Expect a competitive match with both sides capable of scoring, but Lech's quality should edge it.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Lech Poznan are top of the table with strong away form (8W, 5D, 3L).
- →Radomiak Radom have won 3 straight and are tough at home (9W, 4D, 3L).
Attack
- →Both teams average over 1.5 goals scored per game and have high over 2.5 rates.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either team.
Match Context
- →Recent H2H meetings have seen several draws and multiple goals.
🚩 Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Radomiak Radom and 7.2 for Lech Poznan, for an expected total of 12. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (76%). Over 8.5: 85% · Over 10.5: 66%.
How Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Radomiak Radomlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Lech Poznanlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Radomiak Radom enter this match on a three-game winning streak, including a convincing 3-1 home win over Lechia Gdansk and a late comeback against Widzew Łódź. Lech Poznan are unbeaten in five (DWWWD), highlighted by a 4-0 thrashing of Legia Warszawa and a solid away win at Pogon Szczecin, but were held to a draw by Arka Gdynia last time out.
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65.63% of games this season
What History Says: Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan
The head-to-head record is balanced, with Lech Poznan winning 4 of the last 10 and Radomiak just 1, but 5 matches have ended in draws. Recent meetings in Radom have been high-scoring and close, with 2-2 draws in both 2025 and 2023, indicating a tendency for competitive, open games.
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Radomiak Radom wins
5
Draws
4
Lech Poznan wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan
The biggest value lies in the over 2.5 goals market, where the model's probability is almost double the bookmaker's implied chance, supported by both teams' attacking stats and H2H trends. There is also marginal value on the draw and BTTS 'no' selections, though these are less pronounced. Lech's short odds offer little value given Radomiak's home form and the frequency of draws in this matchup.
Odds from Unibet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, possession) are missing for a few fixtures.
- ⚠️Lineups for this fixture are not available at time of analysis.
- ⚠️Lech's recent away defensive numbers may be understated due to incomplete data.
- ⚠️Late-season motivation and rotation risk not fully quantifiable.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.