RB Bragantino vs Mirassol Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
RB Bragantino
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Mirassol
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.5(+5% edge)
Recommended Bets: RB Bragantino vs Mirassol
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol: Match Preview
RB Bragantino return to Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques sitting 10th, four points clear of Mirassol, but with just one win in their last five league outings. Their home record (6W, 2D, 5L) is mid-table standard, while Mirassol arrive buoyed by two wins and a draw from their last three competitive fixtures, though their away record remains poor (2W, 3D, 8L).
Statistically, this match is shaped by Bragantino's ability to generate chances at home—averaging 17.6 shots and 6 on target per match in their last five—against a Mirassol side conceding 1.62 goals per away game this season. Mirassol's own attack has found some rhythm lately, averaging 2.0 goals in their last five across all competitions, but their away output over the season sits at just 0.92 per game. Both sides have seen a majority of their recent matches go over 2.5 goals, with Bragantino's last five averaging 2.8 total goals.
The model projects a relatively open contest, with Bragantino's home advantage and higher shot volume giving them the edge. Mirassol's defensive frailty away from home and Bragantino's tendency to concede suggest both teams are likely to score, but the hosts' superior home record and attacking metrics tip the balance towards a 2-1 result.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind RB Bragantino vs Mirassol that most previews miss.
- 1Bragantino have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five league matches, conceding 1.6 per game in that stretch.
- 2Mirassol have taken just two points from their last five away league games, conceding at least once in all of them.
- 3The last five H2H meetings have produced under 2.5 goals on four occasions, but both teams have scored in three of the last five.
Who do you think wins: RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
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Where the Model Sees Value: RB Bragantino vs Mirassol(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.63
The model assigns a 30% probability to the draw, above the 28.6% implied by odds of 3.5. Both sides have drawn four of their last ten H2H meetings and Bragantino have drawn six times this season, supporting a relatively high draw rate.
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The Case For This RB Bragantino vs Mirassol Prediction
This fixture sets up as a mid-table contest between two sides with similar season-long scoring rates but diverging defensive records. Bragantino's home attack (1.46 goals per game) faces a Mirassol defence conceding 1.62 per away match, while Mirassol's away attack (0.92 goals per game) meets a Bragantino home defence allowing 1.08 per game. Recent form tilts slightly to Mirassol, but the underlying rates and home advantage keep Bragantino marginally ahead in the model.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Bragantino average 1.46 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per home game.
- →Mirassol have lost 8 of 13 away matches, conceding 21 goals (1.62 per game) away.
Match Context
- →Both teams have scored in 4 of Bragantino's last 5 and 2 of Mirassol's last 5 league matches.
🚩 RB Bragantino vs Mirassol Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.6 corners for RB Bragantino and 5.8 for Mirassol, for an expected total of 12.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (79%). Over 8.5: 87% · Over 10.5: 69%.
How RB Bragantino and Mirassol Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
RB Bragantinolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mirassollast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bragantino enter this match with just one win in their last five league games, including three defeats, and have conceded at least once in each of those. Mirassol, by contrast, are on a two-game winning run (including a friendly) and have lost only one of their last four in the league, suggesting a slight momentum edge despite their overall weaker away record.
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: RB Bragantino vs Mirassol
The last ten meetings between these sides have been tightly contested, with four draws and Bragantino holding a slight edge with four wins to Mirassol's two. Recent encounters have mostly been low-scoring, and Bragantino are unbeaten in the last three home H2Hs.
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
RB Bragantino wins
4
Draws
2
Mirassol wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: RB Bragantino vs Mirassol
The model finds the most value on the draw at odds of 3.5, with a 30% model probability versus 28.6% implied. Other markets, including BTTS and over 2.5 goals, are priced in line with statistical expectations, leaving little clear edge elsewhere.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: RB Bragantino vs Mirassol
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is mixed, with Bragantino on a four-match winless run before this.
- ⚠️Mirassol's last away result was a friendly, making their league away form harder to calibrate.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but possible rotation risk not captured in available data.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
RB Bragantino 2–1 MirassolThe model forecasts a 2-1 win for Bragantino, driven by their superior home scoring rate (1.46 goals per game) against a Mirassol side conceding heavily on the road. The most significant risk is Mirassol's recent upturn in attacking output, which could see them nick a result if Bragantino's defence continues to leak goals.
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol: Common Questions
Who will win RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
RB Bragantino are given a 46% chance to win by the model, with the draw at 30% and Mirassol at 24%. Bragantino's stronger home record and Mirassol's poor away form are the main drivers.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
The model puts the probability of both teams scoring at 56%. Bragantino have seen BTTS in four of their last five, while Mirassol have scored in three straight competitive matches.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 54% probability by the model, closely matching the bookmaker's implied odds. Both teams' recent matches have trended toward higher scores, but H2H history is more cautious.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for RB Bragantino vs Mirassol: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.