Rosenborg vs Viking Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Rosenborg
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Viking
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Viking Win
Match Result
7.5/10Late Drama at Lerkendal: Rosenborg Edge Viking with Last-Gasp Winner
Rosenborg clinched a dramatic 2-1 victory over Viking at Lerkendal Stadion, thanks to a stoppage-time winner that sent the home fans into raptures. The hosts controlled much of the match, boasting 55% possession and firing 17 shots, 8 of which were on target, but were made to sweat after Viking clawed their way back late on. The match began with Rosenborg asserting their dominance, rewarded by an early goal in the 15th minute. Despite their control and numerous corners (9 in total), they failed to add to their tally until the dying moments. Viking, who managed just one shot on target from six attempts, struck an equalizer in the 81st minute, threatening to snatch a point. However, Rosenborg's persistence paid off in the 90th minute, sealing all three points in a thrilling finale.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
15' — Goal
Emil Konradsen Ceide opens the scoring for Rosenborg, finishing off a well-worked move.
81' — Goal
Viking equalize through a swift counter, with Peter Christiansen providing the assist.
90' — Goal
Rosenborg snatch victory with a dramatic stoppage-time winner, sending the home fans into celebration.
Rosenborg
Rosenborg delivered a commanding performance, dictating the tempo with 55% possession and creating a flurry of chances. Their attacking intent was evident from the outset, as they racked up 17 shots and forced 8 saves from the Viking goalkeeper. The midfield, marshaled by Ole Selnaes and Mads Bomholt, ensured a steady supply to the forwards, while the defense remained largely untroubled until Viking's late surge. Despite conceding a late equalizer, Rosenborg showed resilience and attacking verve to snatch victory in stoppage time, a testament to their never-say-die attitude and tactical discipline.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Viking
Viking struggled to assert themselves for much of the contest, managing just 45% possession and only one shot on target. Their defensive organization kept them in the match, with Arild Østbø making several important interventions. Despite being on the back foot, Viking showed resilience, capitalizing on a rare opportunity to equalize in the 81st minute, which momentarily silenced the home crowd. However, their inability to maintain defensive concentration in the closing stages proved costly, as they conceded a late winner that undid their hard work.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Rosenborg lined up in a classic 4-4-2, emphasizing width and directness, with Emil Konradsen Ceide and Amin Chiakha providing movement up front. Their approach relied on sustained pressure and overlapping fullbacks, as evidenced by their 9 corners and frequent forays down the flanks. The midfield pairing of Selnaes and Bomholt dictated play, while the defense was rarely troubled until Viking's late push. Viking's 4-3-3 was more conservative, with the midfield trio often dropping deep to shield the back line. Their attacking trio struggled to find space, and the team relied on quick transitions for their limited chances. Substitutions did not significantly alter the tactical shape, but Viking's late goal briefly shifted momentum before Rosenborg's decisive response.
Turning Point
The 90th-minute winner for Rosenborg, coming just as Viking looked set to escape with a point, decisively swung the match in the hosts' favor.
Man of the Match
Emil Konradsen Ceide
Scored the opening goal and was a constant threat, setting the tone for Rosenborg's attacking display.
Rosenborg vs Viking: Match Preview
Rosenborg come into this match sitting 10th, but their recent home form has been strong—three consecutive wins at Lerkendal, scoring 10 and conceding none in those games. Viking, meanwhile, are second in the table with 12 wins from 15 and the league's most potent away attack, having scored 14 and conceded just 7 on their travels. The gap in points (Viking 37, Rosenborg 18) underlines the visitors' consistency, but Rosenborg's uptick at home suggests they will not roll over.
Statistically, this fixture is shaped by Viking's attacking output (2.47 goals per game) and their ability to create chances away from home (14 shots, 5.8 on target in the last five). Rosenborg's home defence has allowed 1.13 goals per game, but their own attack has averaged 2.0 goals per home match. Both teams trend over 2.5 goals (Rosenborg 53%, Viking 73%), and the corners data (Rosenborg 6.6, Viking 6.8 per game recently) points to a high-tempo, open contest. Discipline could be a factor, with Viking collecting 3 yellows per game in their last five.
The model expects Viking's superior attacking rates and away form to tilt the contest their way, but Rosenborg's recent home resurgence means a close match is likely. The likeliest scenario is Viking edging it 2-1, with a strong probability of both teams finding the net and the total goals clearing 2.5.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Rosenborg vs Viking Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Rosenborg vs Viking that most previews miss.
- 1Viking's away matches average 2.33 total goals, but their last five away have seen 13 goals scored (2.6 per game).
- 2Rosenborg have scored 10 and conceded none in their last three home league matches.
- 3The last six H2H meetings have produced at least two goals, with only one ending in a draw.
Who do you think wins: Rosenborg vs Viking?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Rosenborg vs Viking(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Viking Win
Viking's away record (6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 14:7 goal difference) and season scoring rate (2.47 goals per game) both outstrip Rosenborg's home record and defensive numbers, supporting the model's 49% away win probability.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams trend over 2.5 goals (Rosenborg 53%, Viking 73%), and their combined last 5 average is 4.0 total goals per game, making a high-scoring contest statistically likely.
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Corners: Over 10.5
Both sides average over 6.5 corners per game in their last 5 matches (Rosenborg 6.6, Viking 6.8), with the model projecting 12.5 total corners.
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More Eliteserien Predictions
The Case For This Rosenborg vs Viking Prediction
This fixture pits a Viking side with the league's second-best away record and a +23 goal difference against a Rosenborg team whose home output is respectable but defensively vulnerable. With both teams averaging over 2.5 goals per match and Viking's attack consistently producing, the statistical shape is that of an open, attacking contest with the visitors favoured.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Viking's season scoring rate: 2.47 goals per game.
Defence
- →Rosenborg's home defence: 9 goals conceded in 8 home games.
Match Context
- →Viking's away record: 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 14:7 goal difference.
🚩 Rosenborg vs Viking Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.8 corners for Rosenborg and 6.4 for Viking, for an expected total of 13.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (85%). Over 8.5: 91% · Over 10.5: 77%.
How Rosenborg and Viking Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Rosenborg vs Viking Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Rosenborglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vikinglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Rosenborg have won three of their last five in the league, including three straight home wins with a combined scoreline of 10-0, but fell 2-3 at Brann last time out. Viking are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw) and have won six of their last seven in the league, underlining their status as title contenders. Both sides are scoring freely, but Viking have been more consistent across the season.
Rosenborg vs Viking — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 76.47% of games this season
What History Says: Rosenborg vs Viking
Viking have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning six of the last ten meetings and taking the reverse fixture 3-0 in May. Draws have been rare, with only one in the last six, and both teams have scored in four of the last six encounters. High-scoring games are common when these sides meet.
Rosenborg vs Viking Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Rosenborg wins
1
Draws
5
Viking wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Rosenborg vs Viking
No bookmaker odds are available, so value cannot be formally assessed. However, the model's 49% away win probability would typically outpace standard market prices for an away side, suggesting potential value on Viking if odds reflect a closer contest. The over 2.5 goals market also looks strong given both teams' trends.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Rosenborg vs Viking
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Rosenborg's recent home form has improved (three straight home wins, 10 goals scored), raising some uncertainty.
- ⚠️No injury data for either side, so lineup surprises remain possible.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Rosenborg 1–2 VikingViking are projected to win 2-1, driven by their league-best scoring rate (2.47 goals per game) and strong away record. The single strongest data point is Viking's 6 wins from 9 away games, but Rosenborg's recent home surge means the main risk is the hosts' improved attacking output at Lerkendal.
Rosenborg vs Viking: Common Questions
Who will win Rosenborg vs Viking?
The model gives Viking a 49% chance of victory, with Rosenborg at 23% and a draw at 28%. Viking's superior away form and scoring rate make them favourites, but Rosenborg's recent home results narrow the gap.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
There's a 56% probability of both teams scoring, supported by Rosenborg's 2.4 goals scored per game in their last five and Viking's 2.47 season average. Both sides have failed to score just once in their last five league games.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Rosenborg vs Viking?
The model estimates a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals. Both teams trend over this line (Rosenborg 53%, Viking 73% over 2.5), and their recent matches have averaged over 3.0 goals combined.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Rosenborg vs Viking: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.