Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Predictions
3. Liga · Germany
Rot-Weiß Essen
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Rot-Weiß Essen Edge Regensburg in Tight 1-0 Home Victory
Rot-Weiß Essen secured a hard-fought 1-0 win over SSV Jahn Regensburg at Stadion Essen, capitalizing on early dominance to claim all three points in this 3. Liga encounter. The hosts struck in the 15th minute and, despite controlling 60% possession and firing 14 shots (five on target), were unable to extend their lead against a resilient Regensburg side. Regensburg struggled to impose themselves offensively, managing just five shots and only one on target. Despite a late push and a more attacking 3-4-3 formation, they could not break down Essen’s disciplined defense. The match was punctuated by five yellow cards as both teams battled fiercely, but Essen’s early goal proved decisive.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
15' — Goal
M. Janssen scores for Rot-Weiß Essen to give the hosts an early lead.
28' — Yellow Card
First booking for Rot-Weiß Essen as tempers flare in midfield.
39' — Yellow Card
Regensburg pick up their first yellow card as they try to disrupt Essen’s rhythm.
56' — Yellow Card
Essen’s second booking, highlighting the physical nature of the contest.
67' — Yellow Card
Regensburg’s second yellow as they push for an equalizer.
78' — Yellow Card
Essen’s third yellow card as they defend their narrow lead.
Rot-Weiß Essen
Essen started brightly, dictating the tempo with 60% possession and pressing high up the pitch. Their attacking intent was rewarded with a goal in the 15th minute, and they continued to threaten, registering 14 shots and five on target. Defensively, they remained organized, limiting Regensburg to just a single effort on target. While Essen's control was evident, their inability to convert further chances left the door open for their opponents. Nevertheless, their midfield duo and backline held firm under late pressure, ensuring the narrow win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Regensburg struggled to gain a foothold in the first half, conceding early and seeing little of the ball. Their 3-4-3 formation offered width but rarely translated into meaningful attacking play, as evidenced by just one shot on target from five attempts. Despite trailing, Regensburg showed resilience and improved after the break, winning more corners (four to Essen’s three) and pushing for an equalizer. However, their lack of attacking cohesion and composure in the final third ultimately cost them.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Rot-Weiß Essen lined up in a 4-2-3-1, focusing on controlling midfield with a double pivot and using wide players to stretch Regensburg’s back three. Their high pressing and ball retention stifled Regensburg’s attempts to build from the back, forcing turnovers and creating chances, especially in the opening half-hour. Regensburg’s 3-4-3 sought to offer width and overloads on the flanks, but they struggled to progress the ball centrally and lacked penetration. Set pieces became a key avenue for their attacks, but Essen’s defensive shape and disciplined midfield shield limited clear-cut chances. Tactical substitutions in the second half aimed to inject energy, but Essen’s compactness and game management saw them over the line.
Turning Point
M. Janssen’s 15th-minute goal set the tone and forced Regensburg to chase the game, allowing Essen to dictate the tempo.
Man of the Match
M. Janssen
Scored the only goal and led the attacking line with purpose and work rate.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg: Match Preview
Rot-Weiß Essen approach this fixture in third place, buoyed by a five-match unbeaten run and a perfect home record (4 wins, 1 draw). Their 18 points from nine matches reflect a balanced side, while Regensburg sit 17th, just above the relegation zone, with only one away defeat but a porous defence. Regensburg's attack is among the league's most productive, but their inability to keep clean sheets has undermined their campaign.
Statistically, this is a clash of Essen's disciplined home defence against a Regensburg outfit that both scores and concedes at a frenetic rate. Essen's home matches average just 0.6 goals conceded per game, while Regensburg's away trips yield 2.6 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per match. Regensburg are particularly prone to first-half action, with eight of their last eleven goals coming before the break, but their second-half output drops sharply. Set pieces may play a role, as Essen average over four corners per match at home, while Regensburg's defensive set-piece record is unremarkable.
The model projects a high-probability goal environment, with Essen's home solidity expected to prevail. The likeliest scenario is Essen taking an early lead, Regensburg responding with their direct attacking style, and the hosts ultimately edging a 2-1 win. The main risk is Regensburg's attacking volatility, which could see them snatch a result if Essen's defence is breached early.
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Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg that most previews miss.
- 1Regensburg's away matches have seen both teams score in 80% of games this season (4 out of 5).
- 2Essen have scored in every home match this season, averaging 2.2 goals per game at Stadion an der Hafenstrasse.
- 3Regensburg's last five league matches have produced a total of 21 goals (4.2 per game), with only one clean sheet.
Who do you think wins: Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides average above 2 goals scored per game and Regensburg matches have seen 88.9% over 2.5 goals this season, while Essen's home attack is strong (11 goals in 5 home games).
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Match Result: Rot-Weiß Essen Win
Essen are unbeaten at home (4W 1D), have the league's third-best defence at home (3 conceded in 5), and have won three of the last four H2H meetings.
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More 3. Liga Predictions
The Case For This Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Prediction
This fixture features a high-scoring Regensburg side with defensive frailties travelling to a Rot-Weiß Essen team that combines a strong home record with a balanced attack. Essen's home matches average 2.8 total goals, while Regensburg away games see an even higher 5.4 goals per match, setting up a contest with significant goal potential. Both teams' recent form points to attacking intent but defensive lapses, especially from Regensburg, whose clean sheet rate is just 11%. Essen's attack has produced 2.0 goals per game this season, with 11 scored in five home matches. Regensburg, despite their lowly league position, have netted 20 times in nine games, but have conceded 19 — including 14 in five away trips. Essen's defence is notably more robust at home, conceding just 0.6 per game at Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, while Regensburg's away defence is leaking 2.8 per match. Recent goal timing data shows Regensburg are particularly vulnerable after the break, with only three second-half goals scored in their last five, compared to eight in the first half. The model expects Essen's home solidity to edge out Regensburg's volatility, with a likely scenario of Essen leading at the break and both teams scoring. The most probable outcome is a 2-1 home win, underpinned by Essen's superior home defensive record and Regensburg's propensity for high-scoring, open matches.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Essen are unbeaten at home this season (4W 1D), conceding only 3 goals in 5 home matches.
- →Regensburg away games average 5.4 total goals per match (13 scored, 14 conceded in 5).
- →Regensburg's clean sheet percentage is just 11.1%, the second lowest in the league.
🚩 Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Rot-Weiß Essen and 4.4 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Rot-Weiß Essen and SSV Jahn Regensburg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Rot-Weiß Essenlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
SSV Jahn Regensburglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Essen are on a five-match unbeaten run (WDDDW), with two wins and three draws in their last five, and have not lost at home all season. Regensburg's recent form is more erratic (DWLDL), but they have found the net 11 times in their last five league games, offset by 13 goals conceded in that span.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +45.45% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 72.73% of games this season
What History Says: Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
Essen have dominated recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last four meetings and scoring at least twice in each of those victories. The only draw was a 0-0 in 2023, but since then Essen have consistently outscored Regensburg, especially at home.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
4
Rot-Weiß Essen wins
1
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
With no bookmaker odds available, value cannot be formally assessed. However, the model's probabilities for over 2.5 goals (62%) and a home win (48%) suggest these would be the primary value targets if market prices are in line with typical 3. Liga averages.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Both teams have played a friendly in the last month, which may slightly distort recent averages.
- ⚠️Sample size for H2H is limited (4 matches); all recent H2H wins have gone to the home side.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Rot-Weiß Essen 2–1 SSV Jahn RegensburgRot-Weiß Essen are projected to win 2-1, with the strongest supporting data point being Regensburg's away defensive record (14 conceded in 5) against Essen's unbeaten home form. The greatest risk is Regensburg's unpredictable attack, which has already produced 13 away goals and could expose any lapse in Essen's back line.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg: Common Questions
Who will win Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
The model gives Rot-Weiß Essen a 48% chance of victory, with a draw at 29% and Regensburg at 23%. Essen's unbeaten home record and superior defensive numbers make them favourites, but Regensburg's attack poses a real threat.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
There is a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals, driven by Regensburg's 88.9% over 2.5 rate this season and both teams averaging over 2 goals scored per game.
Is both teams to score likely in Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Both teams to score is rated at 60%, reflecting Regensburg's high BTTS rate away from home (80%) and Essen's record of scoring in every home match this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 16 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Resources
Rot-Weiß Essen Predictions
All Rot-Weiß Essen fixtures & tips
SSV Jahn Regensburg Predictions
All SSV Jahn Regensburg fixtures & tips
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
3. Liga Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results