Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük Predictions
1. Lig · Turkey
Sarıyer
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Fatih Karagümrük
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Recommended Bets: Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük
Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük: Match Preview
Sarıyer and Fatih Karagümrük meet in Istanbul with both sides sitting mid-table after ten rounds, separated by just two points. Sarıyer's recent form is inconsistent (LDWDL), including a heavy 1-4 home defeat last time out, while Karagümrük arrive off a 0-1 away loss and have also failed to build momentum (LDLWD). Neither side is under immediate relegation threat, but both need a result to stay within reach of the playoff places in a tightly packed 1. Lig.
The underlying numbers point to a balanced contest. Sarıyer's home attack averages 1.5 goals per game, but their defence concedes 1.33, while Karagümrük's away attack (1.2 goals/game) and defence (1.6 conceded/game) are similarly average. Both teams produce around 11 shots per match with modest accuracy, and neither keeps clean sheets regularly (Sarıyer 20% season, Karagümrük 10%). Set-piece threat is limited, with neither side averaging more than 5 corners or 3 shots on target per game recently. The first half tends to be cagey, with most goals arriving after the break.
Statistically, this match sets up as a low-scoring draw, with the modal outcome 1-1. Both teams' scoring and conceding rates cluster around league averages, and neither has shown the form to break open a tight contest. The main uncertainty is whether defensive errors or a moment of quality can tilt the balance, but the base rates suggest a close, low-event match.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük that most previews miss.
- 1Sarıyer have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five league matches, conceding an average of 2.0 goals in that span.
- 2Fatih Karagümrük's away matches average just 2.8 total goals, and 60% of their away games have finished under 2.5 goals.
- 3Both sides have scored more second-half goals than first-half goals in their last five, with Sarıyer netting 3 after the break versus 2 before.
Who do you think wins: Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average 1.3 goals scored per game and have drawn four of their last ten matches each, with neither attack nor defence showing significant deviation from league averages. The 1-1 is the modal scoreline in the model's distribution.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Sarıyer's matches have gone under 2.5 goals 50% of the time, Fatih Karagümrük's 70%, and both sides' recent shot-on-target numbers suggest finishing quality is not above average.
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BTTS: Yes
Four of Sarıyer's last five and three of Fatih Karagümrük's last five have seen both teams score, with neither side keeping more than one clean sheet in that span.
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More 1. Lig Predictions
The Case For This Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction
This fixture projects as a low-to-moderate scoring contest between two sides whose season-long attack and defence rates are almost indistinguishable. Both Sarıyer and Fatih Karagümrük average 1.3 goals scored per game, and their home/away splits do little to separate them: Sarıyer's home record (3W-1D-2L, 9:8) and Karagümrük's away record (1W-1D-3L, 6:8) are both mid-table profiles. Recent form is mixed for both, with neither stringing together consecutive wins or losses in the last five. The statistical matchup is defined by average shot volumes (Sarıyer 11.8, Karagümrük 11.2 per game in the last five), modest shot-on-target rates (3.0 vs 2.8), and a lack of clean sheets (Sarıyer 0, Karagümrük 1 in the last five). Both teams have shown a tendency to concede in the second half, but neither is especially vulnerable early. Most goals are distributed evenly between halves, and both sides' corners and fouls numbers (Sarıyer 4.6 corners, 10.6 fouls; Karagümrük 2.6 corners, 10.8 fouls) suggest limited set-piece threat. Given these base rates, the model expects a tightly-contested match with few clear chances and a high likelihood of a draw. The most probable outcome is 1-1, with both teams' season and recent scoring/conceding rates converging around this result. The main risk to this projection is a defensive lapse from either side, but neither attack has shown the firepower to consistently exploit such moments.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Both teams average 1.3 goals scored per game and concede at a similar rate (Sarıyer 1.4, Karagümrük 1.3).
- →Neither side has kept more than one clean sheet in their last five league matches.
Match Context
- →Fatih Karagümrük's away record (1W-1D-3L, 6:8) is only marginally weaker than Sarıyer's home record (3W-1D-2L, 9:8).
🚩 Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Sarıyer and 4 for Fatih Karagümrük, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Sarıyer and Fatih Karagümrük Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sarıyerlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fatih Karagümrüklast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sarıyer's recent form is patchy, with just one win in their last five (LDWDL) and a concerning 1-4 home loss in their most recent outing. Fatih Karagümrük have also struggled for momentum, posting a similar LDWDL sequence and failing to win either of their last two. Both teams have been involved in several draws and have not shown the consistency to climb the table.
Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Dominant in possession — 57% avg
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük
The head-to-head record is sparse, with only two recent meetings, both in the Turkish Cup and both won by Fatih Karagümrük (3-0 and 2-0). However, these matches are not recent league contests and may not reflect the current competitive balance, especially as both sides have changed significantly since those encounters.
Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
Sarıyer wins
0
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük wins
Things to Watch: Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edge can be calculated.
- ⚠️Small sample of recent head-to-head meetings (only two, both in the cup, both won by Karagümrük as the away side).
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed for this fixture.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sarıyer 1–1 Fatih KaragümrükThe model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, driven by both teams' identical season scoring rates (1.3 per game) and a lack of any clear home or away advantage. The strongest data point is the convergence of their home/away records and goal averages. The main risk is a defensive lapse from either side leading to a higher-scoring result, but neither attack has consistently punished such errors.
Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük: Common Questions
Who will win Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük?
The model gives Sarıyer a 33% chance to win, Fatih Karagümrük a 31% chance, and a draw is slightly more likely at 36%. Both teams have nearly identical scoring and conceding rates, making this a statistically balanced fixture.
Will both teams score in Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük?
There is a 53% probability that both teams will score, reflecting the fact that Sarıyer have seen BTTS in four of their last five and Karagümrük in three of their last five league matches.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes, the model estimates a 61% chance of under 2.5 goals. Fatih Karagümrük's matches have finished under this line 70% of the time this season, and both teams' recent shot and finishing numbers are modest.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.