Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye Predictions
Super League · China
Shenyang Urban
Full Time
4 - 4
AI predicted 1 - 2
Henan Jianye
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 2(+16% edge)
Match Result
9/10Eight-Goal Thriller: Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye Share the Spoils in 4-4 Classic
In a pulsating encounter at Tiexi Stadium, Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye played out a dramatic 4-4 draw that had fans on the edge of their seats until the final whistle. The match saw momentum swing wildly, with both sides exchanging blows in a contest brimming with attacking intent and defensive lapses. Henan Jianye surged ahead with two quick goals before halftime, but Shenyang Urban responded with a spirited second-half comeback, capped by a late equalizer. Statistically, Shenyang Urban dominated possession with 61% and matched Henan Jianye's attacking threat, registering 14 shots (5 on target) to the visitors' 16 (7 on target). Both teams had eight corners and committed 14 fouls apiece, reflecting the game's intensity and balance. Ultimately, neither side could establish lasting control, resulting in a fair share of the points after a breathless 90 minutes.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
4 - 4
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
39' — Goal
Henan Jianye open the scoring, capitalizing on a defensive lapse.
44' — Goal
Henan double their lead just before halftime, putting the hosts on the back foot.
46' — Goal
Jeffinho pulls one back for Shenyang Urban immediately after the restart.
57' — Goal
Henan Jianye restore their two-goal cushion with a swift counterattack.
60' — Goal
Henan make it 4-1, seemingly putting the game out of reach.
63' — Goal
Kunimoto narrows the deficit for Shenyang Urban with a well-taken goal.
69' — Goal
Binbin Chen scores to make it 4-3, setting up a tense finale.
89' — Goal
Shenyang Urban complete the comeback with a dramatic late equalizer.
Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban showcased remarkable resilience, overturning a two-goal halftime deficit with an explosive second-half display. Their 4-1-4-1 formation allowed them to control the midfield and dictate the tempo, especially after the break. Despite conceding four times, their attacking verve was evident, as they pressed high and created numerous chances, culminating in a dramatic late equalizer. Defensively, however, lapses in concentration cost them dearly, particularly in the first half. While their attacking players shone, the backline struggled to contain Henan Jianye's fluid front four, leading to a high-scoring stalemate.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye demonstrated clinical finishing in the first half, racing to a 2-0 lead with incisive attacking play. Their 4-2-3-1 setup provided balance and allowed their creative midfielders to exploit spaces behind Shenyang Urban's midfield anchor. They continued to threaten after the interval, adding two more goals to their tally by the hour mark. However, their inability to manage the game defensively in the latter stages proved costly. Despite creating more shots on target (7) and looking dangerous on the break, lapses at the back and mounting pressure from the hosts saw their lead evaporate late on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Shenyang Urban lined up in a 4-1-4-1, seeking to dominate midfield possession and press high up the pitch. This approach paid dividends in the second half as they overwhelmed Henan Jianye with numbers in advanced areas, exploiting spaces between the lines. Their fullbacks pushed forward, contributing to their eight corners and sustained attacking pressure. Henan Jianye's 4-2-3-1 offered solidity in midfield and allowed their creative trio behind Gustavo to interchange and overload the flanks. Their transitions were rapid, and they looked especially dangerous on the break, as evidenced by their four goals. However, as the match wore on, their defensive shape faltered under sustained pressure, and their midfield struggled to regain control after Shenyang Urban's tactical tweaks and substitutions.
Turning Point
The goal in the 63rd minute by Takahiro Kunimoto shifted momentum decisively, igniting Shenyang Urban's comeback and putting Henan Jianye on the defensive.
Man of the Match
Jeffinho
His early second-half goal galvanized Shenyang Urban and he remained a constant threat, leading the charge in their dramatic comeback.
Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye: Match Preview
Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye meet in Shenyang with just a point separating them in the congested lower half of the Super League table. Shenyang's home record is split evenly between wins and losses (6W, 6L), and they arrive off back-to-back defeats, while Henan have been steadier on the road, collecting four away wins and showing more attacking punch in recent weeks.
Statistically, this fixture projects goals. Henan's last five matches average 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, with 4 of those games seeing both teams score. Shenyang's defensive issues are pronounced: they have not kept a clean sheet in five and concede 1.59 per game on the season. Both sides exceed 59% for over 2.5 goals, and Henan's matches are especially front-loaded, with six first-half goals in their last five. Set-piece threat is moderate, with Henan averaging 5 corners per game recently.
The model gives Henan a 40% win probability, underpinned by their superior shot and goal output and Shenyang's defensive frailty. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, but the volatility of both sides' recent records means a draw or high-scoring home win cannot be ruled out.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye that most previews miss.
- 1Henan Jianye's away matches average 2.64 total goals per game (12 scored, 17 conceded in 11).
- 2Shenyang Urban's clean sheet rate at home is just 8.3% (1 in 12), the lowest in the league's top 13.
- 3Henan have scored in the first half in four of their last five matches, totalling six first-half goals.
Who do you think wins: Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Henan Jianye Win@ 2.8
Henan Jianye have taken 4 away wins from 11 and produced 1.8 goals per game over their last five, while Shenyang Urban have lost 6 of 12 at home and average just 1.32 goals for and 1.59 against per match. The model rates Henan's win probability at 40% versus 36% implied by the odds.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 2
Both sides have over 59% of matches above 2.5 goals this season (Shenyang 63.6%, Henan 59.1%), and their combined season average is 2.68 goals per game, with recent matches showing similar trends.
Read more ↓
More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye Prediction
This fixture pits two sides with negative goal differences but contrasting home and away records: Shenyang Urban's home form (6 wins, 6 losses) is volatile, while Henan Jianye's 4 away wins from 11 suggest they travel with intent. Both teams are clustered in the lower mid-table, separated by a single point, so every result counts for survival and momentum. On the numbers, Henan's attack has been sharper recently, averaging 1.8 goals and 15 shots per game over the last five, compared to Shenyang's 1.0 goals and 10 shots. Shenyang have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and concede 1.59 per game on the season, while Henan's defence is only marginally better at 1.32 conceded per match. Both teams see over 2.5 goals in well over half their games, and Henan's matches have featured early scoring, with six first-half goals in the last five outings. The model expects Henan to edge a high-variance contest, exploiting Shenyang's defensive frailty and lack of clean sheets. With both teams' over 2.5 goal rates above 59% and a recent H2H ending 4-0 to Henan, the likeliest scenario is an away win in a match with multiple goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Henan Jianye average 1.8 goals scored per game over their last five, with 15 shots and 5 on target per match.
- →Both teams have over 59% of their matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season.
Defence
- →Shenyang Urban have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and have just a 9.1% clean sheet rate for the season.
🚩 Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Shenyang Urban and 5.5 for Henan Jianye, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.
How Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Shenyang Urbanlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Henan Jianyelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Shenyang Urban have lost three of their last five and conceded in every match, with a form string of LLWLD and no clean sheets in that stretch. Henan Jianye, by contrast, are on a LDDWW run, averaging 1.8 goals and 15 shots per match in their last five, and have scored in four of those games.
Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65.22% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye
The only recent head-to-head saw Henan Jianye run out 4-0 winners at home in May, exposing Shenyang Urban's defensive vulnerabilities. While the sample is limited, it underscores Henan's attacking potential in this matchup.
Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
Shenyang Urban wins
1
Draws
1
Henan Jianye wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye
The model finds the most value in the away win and over 2.5 goals markets, with Henan's win probability at 40% versus a typical implied 36% from the odds, and over 2.5 goals at 58% versus even-money. These edges are driven by both teams' high goals-per-game rates and Shenyang's poor defensive record.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye
- ⚠️Both teams' form is inconsistent, with neither side able to string together results, increasing volatility.
- ⚠️Only one recent head-to-head, which may not fully reflect current squad strengths.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Shenyang Urban 1–2 Henan JianyeHenan Jianye are projected to win 2-1, with the strongest data point being their 1.8 goals per game and 15 shots per match over the last five, contrasting with Shenyang Urban's defensive record and lack of clean sheets. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Shenyang's volatile home form produces a rare defensive stand or if Henan's away inconsistency resurfaces.
Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye: Common Questions
Who will win Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye are given a 40% chance of winning away, compared to 27% for Shenyang Urban and 33% for the draw. Henan's recent attacking output and Shenyang's defensive struggles tilt the probabilities toward the visitors.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye?
The model estimates a 58% probability for over 2.5 goals, with both teams' season rates above 59% and recent matches supporting a high-scoring trend.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye?
Both teams to score is rated at 56%, reflecting Shenyang's inability to keep clean sheets and Henan's run of scoring in four of their last five matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 16 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.