Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town Predictions
FA Cup · England
Sheppey United
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Chertsey Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Chertsey Town Win
Recommended Bets: Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town
Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town: Match Preview
Sheppey United enter this FA Cup tie having won both of their competitive matches this season, but their recent form is patchy, with a 'WLWDL' string and just one clean sheet in their last five. Chertsey Town, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last five (DWWWD), have scored 13 goals in that span, and have yet to fail to score this season. With both sides operating at similar league levels and neither carrying significant injuries, the primary differentiator is current attacking output.
Statistically, Chertsey Town's attack is the standout feature: 2.6 goals per game in their last five, and 2.0 per game across the season, compared to Sheppey United's 1.5. Defensively, Sheppey United have a marginally better season record (0.5 conceded per game), but that is from a very small sample and belied by their 1.6 conceded per game over the last five. Both teams have seen BTTS in the majority of recent matches (Sheppey United 60%, Chertsey Town 80%), and over 2.5 goals has landed in at least half of their games, indicating a strong probability of goals at both ends.
The model expects Chertsey Town's superior attacking numbers and recent unbeaten run to tip a high-scoring contest in their favour. Sheppey United's home advantage is unquantified due to missing data, but the away side's scoring rate and BTTS trends suggest a 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, with both teams likely to create chances.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town that most previews miss.
- 1Chertsey Town's last five matches average 3.8 total goals per game, compared to Sheppey United's 2.8.
- 2BTTS has landed in 80% of Chertsey Town's last five outings.
- 3Sheppey United have kept just one clean sheet in their last five matches, despite a 50% season clean sheet rate.
Who do you think wins: Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Chertsey Town Win
Chertsey Town average 2.6 goals per game across their last five and have not lost in that span, while Sheppey United have conceded 1.6 per game and failed to keep more than one clean sheet. The away side's attacking rate and recent form edge this.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have seen at least 50% of their recent games go over 2.5 goals, and Chertsey Town's matches average 3.2 goals per game in the last five, suggesting a higher goal expectancy.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 3 of Sheppey United's last 5 and 4 of Chertsey Town's last 5, with both teams showing attacking intent but only one clean sheet apiece in that span.
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More FA Cup Predictions
The Case For This Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town Prediction
Chertsey Town arrive with a sharper attacking profile, averaging 2.6 goals per game across their last five, while Sheppey United's defensive record (1.6 conceded per game) leaves them exposed. The data points to an open contest, with Chertsey's higher scoring rate and unbeaten run giving them the edge.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Chertsey Town average 2.6 goals scored per game in their last five matches.
Defence
- →Sheppey United have conceded in four of their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in at least 60% of their recent fixtures.
How Sheppey United and Chertsey Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Sheppey Unitedlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Chertsey Townlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sheppey United's recent form is inconsistent, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five, while conceding 1.6 goals per match. Chertsey Town, by contrast, are unbeaten in their last five, scoring 13 and conceding 6, and have not failed to score in any of those games.
Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town
The only previous meeting between these sides ended 4-1 to Sheppey United away at Chertsey Town in 2019, but with just one match on record, no clear head-to-head pattern can be established.
Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Sheppey United wins
0
Draws
1
Chertsey Town wins
Things to Watch: Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value analysis is limited.
- ⚠️Lack of home/away record detail for Sheppey United this season introduces uncertainty.
- ⚠️Small sample sizes for both teams' season records reduce confidence in long-term trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sheppey United 1–2 Chertsey TownThe model projects a 2-1 win for Chertsey Town, driven primarily by their 2.6 goals per game average in recent matches and their unbeaten run. The main risk to this outlook is the lack of home/away split data for Sheppey United, which could understate their home advantage.
Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town: Common Questions
Who will win Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town?
Chertsey Town are given a 44% probability of winning, compared to 23% for Sheppey United and 33% for the draw. The away side's superior recent scoring rate and unbeaten form are decisive factors.
Will both teams score in Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town?
The model assigns a 57% probability to both teams scoring, as BTTS has landed in 3 of Sheppey United's last 5 and 4 of Chertsey Town's last 5 matches.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 59% probability, supported by both teams' recent matches averaging above 2.5 goals and Chertsey Town's high attacking output.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sheppey United vs Chertsey Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.