Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity Predictions
FA Cup · England
Sherwood Colliery
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Gainsborough Trinity
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Gainsborough Trinity Win
Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity: Match Preview
Sherwood Colliery enter this FA Cup tie with a mixed run of results, having won three of their last five but also suffering a heavy 8-0 defeat to Quorn in their most recent cup outing. Gainsborough Trinity, meanwhile, arrive in better form, unbeaten in four of their last five and with a strong away record in recent matches, including a 2-1 win at Ashton United and a 3-0 victory over United of Manchester. Both sides are looking to progress in the cup, but the away side's superior recent results and goal difference suggest a gap in quality.
Statistically, the matchup leans towards a high-scoring contest. Sherwood Colliery have averaged 1.8 goals scored but 2.8 conceded per game in their last five, with only one clean sheet and three matches seeing both teams score. Gainsborough Trinity have been more balanced, scoring 2.2 and conceding just 1.0 per game over the same span, with a notable seven first-half goals in their last five outings. The defensive vulnerability of the hosts, especially at home, contrasts with the visitors' ability to strike early and maintain leads.
The model projects Gainsborough Trinity to have the edge, with a 48% probability of an away win and a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals. Sherwood Colliery's defensive numbers make them susceptible, while the away side's attack is likely to capitalise, especially in the first half. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, driven by the visitors' higher scoring rate and the hosts' recent defensive collapses.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity that most previews miss.
- 1Gainsborough Trinity have scored in the first half in four of their last five matches, totalling seven first-half goals.
- 2Sherwood Colliery have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per game.
- 3Three of the last five matches for both sides have seen both teams score, indicating a strong BTTS trend.
Who do you think wins: Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Gainsborough Trinity Win
Gainsborough Trinity have averaged 2.2 goals scored and just 1 conceded per game over their last five, while Sherwood Colliery have allowed 2.8 per match and were thrashed 8-0 in their most recent cup outing. The away side's higher attacking output and defensive solidity tilt the probability in their favour, even with no odds available.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen three of their last five matches go BTTS, with Sherwood Colliery conceding heavily and Gainsborough Trinity scoring at least twice in four of their last five. Model probability for over 2.5 goals is 0.61.
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The Case For This Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity Prediction
Gainsborough Trinity's recent attacking efficiency and Sherwood Colliery's defensive frailty set up a match with a clear statistical favourite and a high probability of multiple goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both sides have produced BTTS in three of their last five matches.
Defence
- →Gainsborough Trinity's last five: 2.2 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
- →Sherwood Colliery's last five: 1.8 goals scored, 2.8 conceded per game, including an 8-0 loss.
How Sherwood Colliery and Gainsborough Trinity Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Sherwood Collierylast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Gainsborough Trinitylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sherwood Colliery's recent form is volatile, with three wins but also two heavy defeats, including an 8-0 loss. Gainsborough Trinity, by contrast, are on a stronger run, winning three and drawing one of their last five, and scoring at least twice in four of those matches.
Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity — Last 1 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity
There is no available head-to-head data for this fixture, so no historical trends or dominant patterns can be established between these teams.
Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Sherwood Colliery wins
0
Draws
1
Gainsborough Trinity wins
Things to Watch: Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity
- ⚠️No season-long or home/away split data available for either side.
- ⚠️No head-to-head or standings data to contextualise relative strength.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds unavailable, so value assessment is limited.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sherwood Colliery 1–2 Gainsborough TrinityA 2-1 win for Gainsborough Trinity is the most probable result, underpinned by their 2.2 goals per game average and Sherwood Colliery's 2.8 conceded per game in recent matches. The main risk is the limited sample size and lack of home/away splits, which could conceal a home advantage or underestimate Sherwood Colliery's attacking threat.
Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity: Common Questions
Who will win Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity?
The model gives Gainsborough Trinity a 48% chance of winning, compared to 23% for Sherwood Colliery and 29% for the draw. Gainsborough's recent scoring rate and defensive record make them the statistical favourites.
Will both teams score in Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, based on both sides producing BTTS in three of their last five matches and Sherwood Colliery's high goals-conceded average.
What are the chances of over 2.5 goals in this match?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 61%, reflecting Sherwood Colliery's 2.8 goals conceded per game and Gainsborough Trinity's 2.2 scored per game in their last five matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity Resources
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Gainsborough Trinity Predictions
All Gainsborough Trinity fixtures & tips
Sherwood Colliery vs Gainsborough Trinity Stats
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FA Cup Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results