Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Predictions
Super League · China
Sichuan Jiuniu
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7.2/10Sichuan Jiuniu Break Down Chongqing Tongliang Long With Second-Half Surge
Sichuan Jiuniu claimed a deserved 2-0 victory over Chongqing Tongliang Long at Shenzhen Stadium, thanks to a dominant second-half display that saw them break the deadlock after the hour mark and seal the win in the closing stages. Despite conceding more possession (45% to 55%), Jiuniu were far more incisive in attack, registering 7 shots on target from 9 attempts, compared to just 1 on target from 5 for the visitors. The match was a cagey affair for much of the first hour, with both sides struggling to create clear chances. However, the hosts' persistence paid off in the 63rd minute with the opening goal, shifting the momentum decisively. Chongqing, set up in a defensive 5-4-1, were unable to respond, and Jiuniu doubled their lead in the 76th minute to secure all three points. Both teams picked up a yellow card in a physical contest that saw 38 fouls in total.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
63' — Goal
Sichuan Jiuniu break the deadlock with a well-worked move, taking a 1-0 lead.
76' — Goal
Jiuniu double their advantage, effectively sealing the contest.
45' — Yellow Card
Sichuan Jiuniu pick up a yellow card in a physical midfield tussle.
54' — Yellow Card
Chongqing Tongliang Long's discipline slips as they receive a booking.
Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu delivered a disciplined and patient performance, gradually wearing down their well-organized opponents. Although they had less of the ball, they made their attacking moments count, especially after halftime. Their 4-1-4-1 formation allowed for flexibility in midfield, and their pressing forced Chongqing into mistakes. The hosts' ability to convert pressure into goals in the second half was the difference. Defensively, Jiuniu were solid, restricting Chongqing to a single shot on target and dealing well with set pieces. Their midfielders, particularly Zhang Yufeng and Deabeas Owusu-Sekyere, were instrumental in both breaking up play and launching attacks.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long started brightly, controlling possession with 55% and looking comfortable in their 5-4-1 setup. However, their approach proved too passive, as they struggled to translate possession into meaningful chances, managing just one shot on target all game. Their defensive line held firm for over an hour but was eventually breached as fatigue and pressure mounted. Going forward, Chongqing lacked creativity and penetration, with Nany Dimata isolated up front and little support from midfield. Their inability to respond after falling behind was telling, as they failed to create a late surge or threaten a comeback.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu lined up in a 4-1-4-1, providing a strong midfield presence and flexibility to press Chongqing's deep build-up. Their shape allowed them to absorb pressure and spring forward quickly, especially after winning the ball in midfield. The hosts focused on transitions and direct play, which became more effective as the match wore on. Chongqing Tongliang Long opted for a defensive 5-4-1, prioritizing solidity at the back and control in midfield. However, their lack of width and forward support left Nany Dimata isolated, and their possession rarely translated into danger. After conceding, they struggled to adjust tactically, unable to shift gears or break down Jiuniu's organized defense.
Turning Point
The opening goal in the 63rd minute, which broke Chongqing's resistance and forced them to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Wesley Moraes
Led the line with power and intelligence, directly involved in both goals and a constant threat to the Chongqing defense.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: Match Preview
Sichuan Jiuniu return to Shenzhen looking to stabilise after a patchy run, having lost three of their last five league games but scoring three in their most recent home win. Sitting 10th, they face a Chongqing Tongliang Long side currently second in the table, whose season has been built on defensive consistency and a knack for grinding out results—seven wins and eight draws from 19 matches, with only four defeats.
The statistical matchup is shaped by contrasting strengths: Sichuan's home attack (2.0 goals per home game) against Chongqing's away defence (1.22 conceded per away game, 36.8% clean sheet rate). Both teams' recent games have tended toward the low-scoring, with Chongqing's last five league matches averaging just 2.2 goals total and Sichuan's at 3.4, though the latter figure is skewed by a single high-scoring win. Chongqing's matches are more likely to stay under 2.5 goals (63.2% under), and they have failed to score only once in their last five.
Given these rates, the model expects a tactical contest with chances at a premium. Both teams are likely to find the net, but neither attack has shown the consistency to break the game open. The most probable outcome is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline reflecting the underlying goal averages and the visitors' defensive solidity.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long that most previews miss.
- 1Chongqing Tongliang Long's away matches average just 2.44 total goals, with 67% finishing under 2.5 goals.
- 2Sichuan Jiuniu have scored in 8 of 10 home league matches, but have only kept 1 clean sheet at home all season.
- 3Across both teams' last five league games, first-half goals have accounted for just 6 of 20 total goals (30%).
Who do you think wins: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average just over a goal per game (Sichuan Jiuniu 1.32, Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.21), and both have drawn multiple recent matches; the most probable outcome by the model is a 1-1 draw.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Season rates show Chongqing Tongliang Long with only 36.8% of matches over 2.5 and Sichuan Jiuniu at 52.6%, but the away side's defensive record (1.11 conceded per game, 36.8% clean sheet rate) tilts the balance slightly toward a low-scoring outcome.
Read more ↓
More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction
A statistical deadlock is likely in Shenzhen as mid-table Sichuan Jiuniu host second-placed Chongqing Tongliang Long, with both sides' season-long scoring and concession rates pointing to a tight contest. The home side's attack is more productive at home (20 goals in 10 matches), but their defensive frailties (1.5 conceded per home game) are balanced by Chongqing's solid away defence (1.22 conceded per away game). Expect a match decided by small margins, with a draw the likeliest outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Sichuan Jiuniu have scored 20 goals in 10 home league matches (2.0 per game), but also concede 1.5 per home game.
- →Chongqing Tongliang Long have the league's second-best defensive record (1.11 conceded per game) and are unbeaten in their last three away matches.
- →Both teams' last five league games average under 2 goals per match combined (Sichuan 1.6 scored/1.8 conceded, Chongqing 1.2 scored/1.0 conceded).
🚩 Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Sichuan Jiuniu and 4.3 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, for an expected total of 9.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 56% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Sichuan Jiuniu and Chongqing Tongliang Long Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sichuan Jiuniulast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chongqing Tongliang Longlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent form is erratic, with two wins and three losses in their last five, including a convincing 3-0 home victory but also two matches without scoring. Chongqing Tongliang Long are more stable, unbeaten in their last three league matches and coming off a cup win, with a defensive approach that has kept them near the top of the table.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
These sides have met only once previously, with Chongqing Tongliang Long winning 2-0 at home earlier this season. With such a limited head-to-head record, no strong trend can be drawn from past meetings.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Sichuan Jiuniu wins
0
Draws
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value edges cannot be calculated. The model's probabilities suggest the draw and under 2.5 goals are slightly more likely than standard market assumptions for a mid-table vs top-table clash, but this cannot be exploited without price data.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
- ⚠️Only one prior head-to-head, so no established H2H pattern.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent form sample is small and both teams have shown volatility in individual match outcomes.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sichuan Jiuniu 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang LongThe model projects a 1-1 draw, underpinned by Chongqing Tongliang Long's defensive record (1.11 conceded per game, 36.8% clean sheet rate) and Sichuan Jiuniu's reliable but not explosive home attack. The main risk is a sudden collapse from the home defence or a rare attacking outburst from either side, but the season-long rates point to a balanced, low-scoring affair.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: Common Questions
Who will win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
The model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a slight edge (35% win probability) over Sichuan Jiuniu (29%), with the draw the most likely outcome at 36%. Both teams' season-long scoring and concession rates suggest a close contest.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
There is a 56% probability of both teams scoring, as Sichuan have found the net in 80% of home games and Chongqing have failed to score in only one of their last five league matches.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Yes, the probability of under 2.5 goals is 52%, supported by Chongqing's season trend (only 36.8% of their matches go over 2.5) and both sides' recent scoring rates.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 25 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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