Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Predictions
Super League · China
Sichuan Jiuniu
Full Time
2 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Henan Jianye
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7.6/10Late Gustavo Equalizer Salvages Draw for Henan Jianye in Shenzhen Thriller
A dramatic Super League encounter at Shenzhen Stadium saw Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a pulsating 2-2 draw. Despite being reduced to ten men, Sichuan Jiuniu twice came from behind and looked set for a famous victory, only for Henan Jianye’s Gustavo to snatch a late equalizer. The visitors dominated possession with 61% and outshot the hosts 12 to 8, but Sichuan’s resilience and clinical finishing kept the contest finely poised throughout. Henan Jianye struck first just before halftime, but a quickfire double from Sichuan Jiuniu early in the second half turned the match on its head. The hosts’ hopes took a blow with a red card, and Henan’s pressure eventually told as Gustavo found the net in the 76th minute to ensure both sides left with a point apiece.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 2
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
42' — Goal
Henan Jianye open the scoring to take a 1-0 lead just before halftime.
47' — Goal
Wesley Moraes equalizes for Sichuan Jiuniu, shifting the momentum early in the second half.
52' — Goal
Albion Ademi completes a five-minute turnaround to put Sichuan Jiuniu ahead 2-1.
Red Card' — Red Card
Sichuan Jiuniu reduced to ten men, inviting Henan Jianye pressure.
76' — Goal
Gustavo scores the equalizer for Henan Jianye, making it 2-2.
Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu battled valiantly, especially after going down to ten men. Despite conceding the majority of possession (39%) and registering just one corner, they were efficient in attack, converting three shots on target into two goals. Their 4-1-4-1 setup allowed them to stay compact and strike on the break, and their early second-half surge nearly proved enough for victory. However, discipline proved costly, as a red card forced them onto the back foot for the closing stages. Their defensive line, led by Gabriel Xavier, held firm for long spells but ultimately could not withstand Henan’s relentless late pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye controlled the tempo with 61% possession and created more chances, firing 12 shots with 4 on target. Their 4-2-3-1 formation provided width and allowed them to overload the midfield, but they struggled to convert dominance into goals until late on. Gustavo’s late equalizer was just reward for their persistence. While Henan’s attacking play was fluid, they were vulnerable to quick transitions and conceded twice in rapid succession after halftime. Their ability to capitalize on the numerical advantage in the final third was key to salvaging a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu lined up in a disciplined 4-1-4-1, focusing on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their midfield five worked hard to disrupt Henan’s rhythm, while Wesley Moraes acted as the focal point for counters. After the red card, Sichuan dropped deeper, switching to a more defensive posture and relying on their back four and holding midfielder to absorb pressure. Henan Jianye’s 4-2-3-1 emphasized control and width, with Bruno Nazário orchestrating play and the fullbacks pushing high. Their numerical superiority in midfield allowed them to dominate possession, but they were occasionally exposed on the break. Set pieces and wide play became more prominent after Sichuan’s sending off, culminating in sustained late pressure that led to the equalizer.
Turning Point
The red card to Sichuan Jiuniu shifted momentum decisively, allowing Henan Jianye to press forward and eventually find the equalizer.
Man of the Match
Gustavo
Came up with the crucial late goal that salvaged a point for Henan Jianye and capped a tireless attacking display.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye: Match Preview
Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye meet with just one point separating them in the lower mid-table, both sides having won 8 of 26 matches and carrying negative goal differences. Sichuan's recent form is patchy (DLDWL), while Henan are on a run of four consecutive draws, highlighting a lack of cutting edge but also resilience. Both teams are relatively safe from relegation but have little to play for beyond pride and league position.
Statistically, the matchup is balanced: Sichuan Jiuniu's home attack averages 1.77 goals per game, while Henan Jianye's away defence concedes 1.69. Conversely, Henan's away attack (1.31 goals/game) faces a Sichuan defence that allows 1.31 at home. Both sides' last five matches show increased shot output (Sichuan 14.8, Henan 16.6) but only moderate conversion rates, and neither keeps clean sheets reliably (season clean sheet rates: Sichuan 15.38%, Henan 19.23%). The model also notes a high average for corners (Henan 7.6 per game last 5), suggesting set-piece opportunities.
Given the near-identical scoring and concession rates, the most likely scenario is a low-scoring draw, with both teams finding the net but neither able to sustain attacking pressure. The distribution of results and the recent head-to-head record (three draws in the last four) reinforce the 1-1 as the modal outcome, though a 2-1 either way is well within the statistical range.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS: Yes
52%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye that most previews miss.
- 1Henan Jianye have drawn four straight league matches, three of them with both teams scoring.
- 2Sichuan Jiuniu's home matches average 3.08 total goals, but their clean sheet rate is just 15.38%.
- 3Five of the last seven H2Hs have produced under 2.5 goals, with three draws in that span.
Who do you think wins: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average between 1.27 and 1.31 goals scored per game and have drawn three of their last seven head-to-heads; the 1-1 is the modal outcome in a fixture with evenly matched rates and high draw probability.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 3 of Sichuan Jiuniu's last 5 and 4 of Henan Jianye's last 5, with both teams conceding over 1.3 goals per game this season; model probability is 0.59.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Season over 2.5 goal rates are 50% (Sichuan Jiuniu) and 53.85% (Henan Jianye), with both teams' defences trending weaker in recent matches (1.6 and 2.0 conceded per game last 5).
Read more ↓
More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Prediction
A mid-table Super League clash with nearly identical season scoring rates and defensive records points to a tightly contested encounter, with both sides showing vulnerability at the back and limited attacking edge. The statistical distribution favours a low-scoring draw, but the underlying rates keep the possibility of a 2-1 either way alive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Sichuan Jiuniu average 1.31 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game; Henan Jianye 1.27 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Match Context
- →Henan Jianye have drawn four consecutive matches and have a slightly better away record (4W, 4D, 5L) than Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (6W, 2D, 5L).
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in just over half their matches (Sichuan Jiuniu 50%, Henan Jianye 53.85%).
🚩 Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Sichuan Jiuniu and 6.2 for Henan Jianye, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 46%.
How Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sichuan Jiuniulast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Henan Jianyelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent form is mixed, with just one win in their last five (DLDWL) and an average of 0.8 goals scored per game in that stretch. Henan Jianye are stuck in a run of draws, recording four consecutive stalemates and conceding two goals per game over their last five, but they have shown a bit more attacking threat (1.4 goals per game).
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
What History Says: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye have the edge in the head-to-head, winning three of the last seven meetings, including both recent away trips to Sichuan. However, three of the last four encounters have ended in draws, with two goalless and one 1-1, indicating a tendency for this fixture to be closely contested.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
1
Sichuan Jiuniu wins
4
Draws
3
Henan Jianye wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so direct value edges cannot be identified. The model's probabilities suggest the draw and BTTS markets would be the most interesting for value if prices are set in line with typical league averages. Any odds offering the draw above 2.80 or BTTS above 1.80 would merit close attention given the underlying rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be computed.
- ⚠️Recent form samples are small and both teams have fluctuated in performance.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late injuries or rotations could affect the goal environment.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sichuan Jiuniu 1–1 Henan JianyeThe model projects a 1-1 draw as the likeliest outcome, driven by both teams' matching season averages (1.3 goals scored per game, similar concession rates) and a recent run of stalemates for Henan. The main risk is either side capitalising on defensive lapses, as both have conceded at least 1.6 per game over the last five, which could tip the balance towards a 2-1 result.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye: Common Questions
Who will win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
The probabilities are nearly even: 31% for a Sichuan Jiuniu win, 36% for a draw, and 33% for Henan Jianye. Both teams have almost identical season records and recent form, so the draw is marginally favoured.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
Yes is slightly favoured at 59%, with both teams averaging over 1.25 goals scored per game and BTTS landing in 3 of Sichuan's last 5 and 4 of Henan's last 5 matches.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
It's close to a coin flip: the model gives a 51% probability for over 2.5 goals, with both teams' season matches going over that line just over half the time (Sichuan 50%, Henan 53.85%).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 2 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.