SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Predictions
2. Bundesliga · Germany
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
1. FC Nürnberg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Draw or 1. FC Nürnberg
Match Result
7.2/10Nürnberg Pegs Back Fürth in Derby Stalemate at Sportpark Ronhof
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg played out a tense 1-1 draw in the Franconian derby at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Fürth struck first, capitalizing on their early momentum with a 13th-minute goal, but Nürnberg responded on the stroke of halftime to level the contest. Despite Nürnberg's dominance in possession and a flurry of chances, both sides ultimately lacked the cutting edge to claim all three points. The visitors controlled 59% of the ball and registered 20 shots to Fürth's 13, but both teams managed just six shots on target apiece. Tactical discipline, timely interventions, and a handful of key saves ensured the spoils were shared, leaving both teams to rue missed opportunities in a fiercely contested derby.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
13' — Goal
Noel Futkeu finishes off a flowing move to give Fürth the lead.
45' — Goal
Adriano Grimaldi levels for Nürnberg just before halftime, shifting the momentum.
37' — Yellow Card
Jannik Dehm (Fürth) booked for a tactical foul to halt a counter.
52' — Yellow Card
Fabio Gruber (Nürnberg) shown yellow for a late challenge.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Fürth started brightly, pressing high and making their early pressure count with a well-taken goal in the 13th minute. However, as the match wore on, they ceded control of possession to Nürnberg and were forced to defend resolutely, especially after conceding the equalizer just before halftime. Their 3-5-2 setup provided width and numbers in midfield, but they struggled to retain the ball and create sustained threats in the second half. Despite being outshot and out-possessed, Fürth's defensive organization and work rate kept them in the game. The back three, marshaled by Philipp Ziereis, stood firm under increasing pressure, while the midfielders worked tirelessly to break up play and launch counterattacks.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
1. FC Nürnberg
Nürnberg responded well to going behind, gradually asserting their authority through superior possession and midfield control. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate the ball, and they created more chances, firing 20 shots with six on target. The equalizer just before halftime was a deserved reward for their persistence. Despite their attacking intent and territorial advantage, Nürnberg could not find a winner. They were occasionally vulnerable to Fürth's counters and lacked a clinical edge in front of goal, with several promising moves breaking down in the final third.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Fürth's 3-5-2 formation allowed them to start with energy, using wingbacks to stretch the play and a compact midfield to press early. After taking the lead, they dropped deeper, focusing on defensive solidity and looking to break quickly through their front two. However, their inability to maintain possession under Nürnberg's pressure limited their attacking threat as the game progressed. Nürnberg's 4-2-3-1 provided midfield superiority and width, enabling them to dominate the ball and push Fürth back. Their double pivot shielded the defense while allowing the attacking trio behind Grimaldi to interchange and probe for openings. Despite this, Fürth's disciplined backline and numbers behind the ball made clear chances hard to come by, forcing Nürnberg into speculative efforts from distance.
Turning Point
Grimaldi's equalizer in the 45th minute, which shifted the momentum and set the tone for a more balanced second half.
Man of the Match
Adriano Grimaldi
Scored the vital equalizer and was a constant threat, leading Nürnberg's attacking line with purpose.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
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Where the Model Sees Value: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Double Chance: Draw or 1. FC Nürnberg
Nürnberg have better recent form, a stronger away attack than Fürth's home defence, and are solid in H2H, while Fürth are struggling and have one of the league's worst defences.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have high season over 2.5 rates (Fürth 66.7%, Nürnberg 53.3%), and defensive vulnerabilities make goals likely.
Match Result: 1. FC Nürnberg Win
Nürnberg are in better form, Fürth are in the relegation zone and leaking goals, and recent H2H favors Nürnberg away.
More 2. Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction
This Franconian derby sees relegation-threatened Fürth host mid-table Nürnberg. Fürth's recent form is poor, with defensive issues and only one win in five, while Nürnberg have shown more stability and attacking threat, especially away from home. Both teams concede frequently, so a high-scoring game is possible, but Nürnberg's edge in form, league position, and H2H makes them slight favorites.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent form: Fürth (WDLLL), Nürnberg (DLDWW).
- →H2H: Nürnberg unbeaten in last 3 visits to Fürth, including a 4-0 win.
Defence
- →Fürth have conceded 63 goals in 30 matches (worst in league), only 13.3% clean sheets.
- →Nürnberg have better away form and defensive record than Fürth's home record.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side.
Match Context
- →Fürth failed to score in 3 of last 5; Nürnberg only once.
- →Both teams have high over 2.5 goal rates.
🚩 SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 4.8 for 1. FC Nürnberg, for an expected total of 9.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 58% · Over 10.5: 33%.
How SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
SpVgg Greuther Fürthlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
1. FC Nürnberglast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65.63% of games this season
- +Dominant in possession — 55% avg
What History Says: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins
4
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided; value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Lineups not available; late changes could impact predictions.
- ⚠️Fürth may be highly motivated due to relegation threat, which could affect performance.
- ⚠️Some recent match data (shots, lineups) is incomplete for both teams.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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