SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Predictions
2. Bundesliga · Germany
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Full Time
2 - 4
AI predicted 2 - 2
1. FC Nürnberg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 1.59(+8% edge)
Match Result
8.2/10Nürnberg Rally Past Fürth in Six-Goal Derby Thriller
1. FC Nürnberg emerged victorious in a pulsating Franconian derby, defeating SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-2 at the Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Despite Fürth twice taking the lead in the first half, Nürnberg showed impressive resilience and attacking verve to turn the game around, scoring three unanswered goals after the break. The encounter was a showcase of attacking football, with both sides carving out numerous chances and the visitors ultimately proving more clinical in front of goal. Fürth started brightly and went ahead in the 22nd minute, but Nürnberg responded swiftly, equalizing just four minutes later. The hosts regained the advantage before halftime, only for Nürnberg to level again on the stroke of the interval. The second half belonged to the visitors, who tightened up defensively and punished Fürth on the counter, scoring in the 54th and 74th minutes to seal a memorable away win.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 2
Actual
2 - 4
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
22' — Goal
Felix Klaus puts Fürth ahead after a swift counter-attack.
26' — Goal
Piet Scobel equalizes for Nürnberg, finishing off a flowing move.
41' — Goal
Fürth retake the lead through a well-worked set piece.
45' — Goal
Nürnberg level again just before the break, shifting momentum.
54' — Goal
Scobel scores his second, giving Nürnberg their first lead.
74' — Goal
Nürnberg seal the win with a fourth goal after a quick transition.
various' — Yellow Cards
Nürnberg pick up four bookings as their pressing intensifies.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Fürth played with attacking intent, especially in the first half, and twice took the lead thanks to incisive midfield play and sharp finishing. Their 5-3-2 formation provided width and allowed overlapping runs, but defensive lapses and a lack of control in midfield after the break proved costly. Despite registering 14 shots and 6 on target, Fürth struggled to contain Nürnberg’s fluid attack and were ultimately overrun in the second half.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
1. FC Nürnberg
Nürnberg delivered a statement performance, especially in the second half, overturning deficits twice before pulling away. Their 4-2-3-1 setup allowed for controlled possession (56%) and quick transitions, with the midfield dictating tempo and the attack showing clinical edge. Nürnberg’s pressing forced errors, and their ability to exploit Fürth’s defensive gaps was decisive, as they finished with 15 shots and 8 on target.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Fürth’s 5-3-2 formation provided early width and defensive solidity, but as the match wore on, their midfield became stretched and vulnerable to Nürnberg’s overloads. The hosts’ wing-backs pushed high, creating space for Nürnberg to exploit on the break. Nürnberg’s 4-2-3-1 allowed them to control possession and utilize the central areas, with Finn Ole Becker and Julian Justvan linking play effectively. The visitors’ pressing game forced turnovers, but also led to a high foul count and four yellow cards. Tactical substitutions in the second half helped Nürnberg shore up their midfield, while Fürth struggled to adjust and regain control.
Turning Point
Scobel’s second goal in the 54th minute gave Nürnberg the lead for the first time and shifted the momentum decisively in the visitors’ favor.
Man of the Match
Piet Scobel
Scored two vital goals and led Nürnberg’s attack with composure and clinical finishing.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg: Match Preview
Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg open their 2. Bundesliga campaigns with both sides coming off strong pre-season runs. Fürth have stitched together a three-match winning streak in friendlies, conceding just once in their last two outings, while Nürnberg have been prolific in attack, notching 22 goals across their last five, albeit with some defensive lapses. With both teams starting on zero points, early momentum and derby pride are at stake, but neither arrives as a clear favourite.
Statistically, this fixture is primed for goals. Nürnberg's last five matches have seen an average of 4.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, and they've failed to score just once in their last 15 outings. Fürth's attack is less explosive but consistent, averaging 2.2 goals for and 0.8 against in their last five, with two clean sheets. Both clubs have seen BTTS land in at least two of their last five, and the last two H2H meetings finished 2-2 and 1-1, reflecting a pattern of open, competitive football. Set-piece and discipline data is limited from pre-season, but Nürnberg's four yellows and two reds against Oviedo suggest a combative edge.
The model expects an end-to-end contest, with neither side likely to control proceedings for long. Nürnberg's firepower and Fürth's home steadiness point to a high-scoring draw as the most probable outcome. The strongest statistical edge is on over 2.5 goals, where both recent form and H2H history point to value against the market price. However, with both teams still bedding in after pre-season, the main risk is a more cautious tactical approach than recent friendlies suggest.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
The clearest value lies on over 2.5 goals, where the model's 68% probability outpaces the market's implied 63% (1.59 odds). The draw also offers a modest edge at 3.6, given the fixture's history of stalemates and the model's 29% probability. No significant value appears on either side in the 1x2 market, as the odds closely match the model's assessment.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.59
Both sides have averaged over 2 goals per match in pre-season, Nürnberg have seen 4+ goals in four of their last five, and the last two H2H meetings finished 2-2 and 1-1. The model's 68% probability for over 2.5 goals gives a clear value edge over the market implied 63%.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.6
Four of the last ten H2H meetings have ended level, including both most recent matches (2-2 and 1-1), and the model's 29% draw probability is slightly above the market's 28% implied, offering a modest value angle in a fixture with little to separate the sides.
Read more ↓
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg that most previews miss.
- 1Nürnberg have scored 2+ goals in every pre-season match, averaging 4.4 per game across their last five.
- 2The last two head-to-head meetings finished level (2-2 and 1-1), with both teams scoring in seven of the last ten.
- 3Fürth's last five have seen just one failed to score and two clean sheets, but their matches average only 3 total goals—lower than Nürnberg's recent average.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
66%
BTTS: Yes
67%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
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The Case For This SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction
Bookmakers rate this as a near pick'em, but the data hints at a goal-laden, tightly contested derby. Nürnberg's pre-season attack has been rampant, while Fürth's recent form is quietly solid, especially at home. The market may be underestimating the attacking volatility on show.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Nürnberg's last five matches average 5.6 total goals per game.
Defence
- →Fürth have won three straight in pre-season, conceding just once in their last two.
Match Context
- →Four of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in draws, including both most recent encounters.
🚩 SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 4.6 for 1. FC Nürnberg, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
SpVgg Greuther Fürthlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
1. FC Nürnberglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
In exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Fürth enter the new season on a three-match winning run in friendlies, conceding just one goal in their last two and showing defensive solidity. Nürnberg, meanwhile, have been rampant in attack, scoring 22 times in their last five matches and winning four, though they have kept just one clean sheet in that span. Both sides look sharp, but Nürnberg's attacking numbers are particularly eye-catching.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
The last ten Franconian derbies have produced three wins each and four draws, with both of the most recent meetings ending level (2-2 and 1-1). BTTS has landed in seven of those ten, and high-scoring games are common, underlining the fixture's tendency toward open, competitive football.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins
4
Draws
4
1. FC Nürnberg wins
Things to Watch: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
- ⚠️No competitive league matches played this season; all recent data is from friendlies.
- ⚠️Lineups and tactical setups for opening day can be unpredictable.
- ⚠️Pre-season results may not fully reflect competitive intensity or squad strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–2 1. FC NürnbergThe model calls this a 2-2 draw, underpinned by Nürnberg's exceptional attacking output in pre-season (22 goals in five games) and the fixture's history of high-scoring stalemates. The main risk is that opening-day nerves or tactical caution from either manager could suppress the attacking intent seen in friendlies.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg: Common Questions
Who will win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
The model gives Nürnberg a slight edge (38% win probability) over Fürth (33%), with a 29% chance of a draw. Market odds are close to even, reflecting the fixture's balanced recent history and derby unpredictability.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fürth vs Nürnberg?
There's a 68% model probability for over 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging at least 2 goals per game in pre-season and four of Nürnberg's last five seeing 4+ goals. The market price (1.59) slightly underestimates this likelihood.
Is there value in backing the draw in this fixture?
With four draws in the last ten H2H meetings—including both most recent encounters—and a model probability of 29% versus the market implied 28%, the draw offers a small but real value edge at current odds (3.6).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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