SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg Predictions
3. Liga · Germany
SSV Jahn Regensburg
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
MSV Duisburg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: MSV Duisburg Win
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg: Match Preview
Regensburg arrive off a mixed start, sitting mid-table with a single win and a home defeat, having failed to score in their only league match at the Jahnstadion. Duisburg, by contrast, top the early standings with two wins from two, seven goals scored, and a clean sheet in their only home outing. The away side’s momentum is underpinned by a strong attack and a defence that has conceded just twice in the league.
Statistically, the matchup leans towards goals: Duisburg average 3.5 scored per league game and have seen both their matches go over 2.5, while Regensburg’s defensive record is patchy, conceding in both league outings and keeping no clean sheets. Duisburg’s second-half scoring is notable (seven of their last nine after half time), suggesting a game that could open up after the break. Regensburg’s away attack has been potent, but their home output is a concern, with zero goals in their only home league match.
The model expects Duisburg’s higher attacking and conversion rates to be decisive, especially against a Regensburg side that has not found consistency at home. With both teams’ recent matches trending over 2.5 goals and a head-to-head record that favours away wins and goals, Duisburg are projected to edge a match with scoring chances at both ends.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg that most previews miss.
- 1Duisburg have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in the league this season (2/2).
- 2Regensburg have scored five of their last six goals away from home, but none at home in league play.
- 3Duisburg have scored 7 of their last 9 goals in the second half across all competitions.
Who do you think wins: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg?
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Where the Model Sees Value: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: MSV Duisburg Win
Duisburg’s away scoring rate (4 goals in their only away league match) and 100% win record from two league matches (7 scored, 2 conceded) puts them statistically ahead of Regensburg, who have failed to score at home and have a 0% clean sheet rate.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have shown high-scoring tendencies early in the season (Regensburg 2.5, Duisburg 3.5 goals per game; Duisburg 100% over 2.5), and the last five matches for both sides average over 3 goals per game.
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More 3. Liga Predictions
The Case For This SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg Prediction
This fixture brings together a Regensburg side that has struggled to convert home advantage into goals, and a Duisburg team riding the early momentum at the top of the 3. Liga table. Duisburg's attack has been prolific, with seven goals in their opening two league matches and a perfect record, while Regensburg have only managed a single home goal in their last two competitive home outings. The statistical profile points to Duisburg’s superior firepower and defensive stability, especially on the road. The matchup is shaped by Duisburg’s ability to score in bunches, particularly in the second half (seven of their last nine goals coming after the break), against a Regensburg defence that has yet to keep a clean sheet and has conceded in both halves of matches. Regensburg’s attack, while explosive away (five goals at Viktoria Köln), has not translated at home, where they failed to score in their only league fixture. Both sides average over 2.5 goals per game in the league so far, and three of the last five for each have seen both teams score. Expect Duisburg to control the tempo, especially after half time, with their higher shot and conversion rates. Regensburg may threaten sporadically but lack the consistency at home to match Duisburg’s output. The likeliest scenario is a competitive first half before Duisburg’s attacking depth tells, leading to an away win with goals at both ends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Duisburg’s league attack rate: 3.5 goals scored per game, 100% over 2.5 goals.
Match Context
- →Regensburg have failed to score in their only home league match this season.
- →Duisburg have scored 7 of their last 9 goals in the second half.
How SSV Jahn Regensburg and MSV Duisburg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
SSV Jahn Regensburglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
MSV Duisburglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Duisburg are riding a strong early-season wave, with two league wins, seven goals scored, and only two conceded. Regensburg’s form is more erratic: three wins in their last five (including friendlies), but a home defeat to Saarbrücken and no goals scored at their own ground in league play. Duisburg’s attack is in sharper rhythm, while Regensburg have yet to find home consistency.
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg
The last ten meetings are split evenly (four wins each, two draws), but Duisburg have enjoyed recent success away at Regensburg, including a 4-0 win last season. Goals are common in this fixture, with four of the last six seeing at least three scored, and away teams have won five of the last ten.
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
SSV Jahn Regensburg wins
2
Draws
4
MSV Duisburg wins
Things to Watch: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg
- ⚠️Small league sample (2 matches each) increases volatility of scoring rates.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available to confirm value edges.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies may not reflect competitive match intensity or lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–2 MSV DuisburgThe model projects a 2-1 away win for Duisburg, driven by their early-season scoring rate (3.5 goals per game) and Regensburg’s inability to score at home. The main risk is Regensburg’s potential to rebound offensively at home, but their recent record suggests Duisburg’s edge in both attack and defensive solidity should see them prevail.
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg: Common Questions
Who will win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg?
The model gives Duisburg a 44% chance of victory, Regensburg 27%, and a draw 29%. Duisburg’s superior scoring rate and recent form make them statistical favourites.
Will both teams score in Regensburg vs Duisburg?
There is a 56% probability of both teams scoring, with both sides averaging over 2 goals per game in the league and three of their last five matches featuring goals at both ends.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Yes, the model estimates a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, reflecting Duisburg’s 100% over 2.5 rate and Regensburg’s defensive vulnerability.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.