ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
ST Mirren
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Dundee Utd
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.55(+5% edge)
Match Result
7/10St Mirren and Dundee Utd Share the Spoils in Hard-Fought Paisley Draw
St Mirren and Dundee United played out a competitive 1-1 draw at The SMISA Stadium, with both sides showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive winner. Dundee United struck first in the 27th minute, capitalizing on a period of sustained pressure, but St Mirren responded strongly after the break, equalizing in the 69th minute to set up a tense finale. The hosts were the more enterprising side in attack, registering 16 shots with 7 on target and forcing 10 corners, but Dundee United’s disciplined defensive structure and timely interventions, despite conceding slightly more possession (49% to 51%), ensured the points were shared. Both teams matched each other in commitment, each committing 10 fouls, but it was the visitors who saw two players booked as they fought to protect their advantage.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
27' — Goal
Max Watters put Dundee United ahead, finishing off a swift move.
69' — Goal
Jake Young equalized for St Mirren after sustained pressure.
74' — Yellow Card
Dundee United received their second booking as St Mirren pressed for a winner.
ST Mirren
St Mirren showed attacking intent throughout, particularly in the second half as they chased the game. Their 16 total shots and 10 corners reflected their territorial dominance, especially after falling behind. The midfield, anchored by Mark O'Hara and Allan Campbell, provided energy and drive, while the wing-backs offered width in the 3-5-2 system. The equalizer in the 69th minute was a deserved reward for their persistence, but a lack of clinical finishing prevented them from turning one point into three.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Dundee Utd
Dundee United executed their game plan well in the first half, taking the lead in the 27th minute and managing possession (51%) smartly. Their defensive organization, especially after going ahead, kept St Mirren at bay for long spells, though they struggled to create clear chances, managing just 6 shots and 3 on target. Two yellow cards reflected their willingness to disrupt St Mirren’s rhythm, but they ultimately couldn’t hold out under mounting pressure in the second half.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both managers opted for a 3-5-2 formation, emphasizing midfield battles and wing-back width. St Mirren’s approach was proactive, with O'Hara and Campbell driving forward and the wing-backs stretching play, resulting in a high number of corners and shots. Dundee United, meanwhile, focused on compactness and quick transitions, especially in the first half. Their defensive discipline was evident, but as St Mirren increased their attacking intensity after the break, United were forced deeper, relying on counter-attacks and defensive resilience. Substitutions and tactical tweaks in the second half helped St Mirren wrest control, but neither side could find a late breakthrough.
Turning Point
Jake Young’s 69th-minute equalizer shifted momentum firmly in St Mirren’s favor, setting up a frantic final 20 minutes where both teams pushed for a winner.
Man of the Match
Jake Young
His equalizer was the catalyst for St Mirren’s second-half resurgence and he was a constant threat up front.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.55
Model sees a higher probability for a draw (33%) than the odds imply (28%), with both teams showing defensive vulnerabilities and recent inconsistent form. H2H history also features several close matches and draws.
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BTTS: No@ 2.32
ST Mirren have failed to score in 4 of their last 5, and BTTS has landed just 2/5 for Dundee Utd. With both teams showing some attacking inconsistency, the price for 'no' offers slight value.
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The Case For This ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Prediction
ST Mirren enter this match in poor form, having lost four straight and struggling mightily in attack, while Dundee Utd have also stumbled recently but boast a stronger overall season and away scoring record. Dundee Utd's more consistent attack and historical dominance in this matchup give them the edge, but both sides' defensive frailties and the hosts' desperation could keep the contest competitive. Expect a tense, physical encounter with goals likely but not guaranteed from both sides.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →ST Mirren have lost 4 consecutive matches, scoring just once in their last 5.
- →Dundee Utd have a superior away scoring record (24 in 18 away games).
- →H2H: Dundee Utd have won 6 of the last 10 meetings; draws and low-scoring games are common.
- →ST Mirren's home attack is the weakest in the league (10 goals in 18 home games).
Defence
- →Dundee Utd average 1.6 goals scored in their last 5, but concede 2.2 per game.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
🚩 ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.3 corners for ST Mirren and 4.3 for Dundee Utd, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 49%.
How ST Mirren and Dundee Utd Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
ST Mirrenlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dundee Utdlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
ST Mirren are in a dire run, losing their last four matches and failing to score in all of them, with just one win in their last five. Dundee Utd have been inconsistent, winning two and losing three of their last five, but their attack remains more productive than the hosts, averaging 1.6 goals per game over that stretch.
ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd have had the upper hand in this fixture, winning six of the last ten meetings, including a 2-1 win at home in March. ST Mirren did win the last home encounter (2-0), but overall, most matches have been tight, with several games featuring under 2.5 goals and a few draws.
ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
ST Mirren wins
2
Draws
6
Dundee Utd wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd
The draw is underpriced by the market, with the model estimating a 33% chance compared to the implied 28% from the odds, suggesting value on a stalemate in a potentially cagey match. 'BTTS No' also offers a slight edge, as ST Mirren's attack has been blunt and both sides have shown a tendency for one-sided scoring in recent games. The home win is overpriced given ST Mirren's form and H2H record.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd
- ⚠️ST Mirren's recent attacking output is extremely poor, but may regress positively.
- ⚠️Dundee Utd's away defence is leaky (37 conceded in 18), raising volatility.
- ⚠️No corners or cards odds available, so set piece markets not evaluated for value.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late changes could impact attacking/defensive strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.