ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
ST Mirren
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Dundee Utd
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.5(+16% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Dundee United Dismantle St Mirren with Ruthless First-Half Display
Dundee United produced a commanding performance at The SMiSA Stadium, sweeping aside St Mirren 3-0 with all three goals coming in a devastating first-half blitz. The visitors struck early, finding the net in the 6th and 12th minutes before sealing their dominance with a third on the stroke of half-time. Despite enjoying 60% possession, St Mirren failed to register a single shot on target, their attacking efforts blunted by a resolute United defence and a lack of cutting edge in the final third. The second half saw Dundee United manage the game expertly, absorbing pressure and threatening on the counter, while St Mirren’s frustrations grew. Both sides picked up two yellow cards apiece in a match that, despite its early drama, fizzled out after the break as United comfortably saw out a statement away win.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
6' — Goal
Dundee United open the scoring, setting the tone for a dominant first half.
12' — Goal
United double their lead, capitalizing on another defensive lapse from St Mirren.
45' — Goal
A third goal just before half-time effectively ends the contest.
First Half' — Yellow Cards
Both teams pick up bookings as the match intensity rises.
ST Mirren
St Mirren controlled the majority of possession (60%) but struggled to turn their territorial advantage into meaningful chances, failing to register a single shot on target from 10 attempts. Their 4-2-3-1 setup lacked penetration, with the attacking midfield trio unable to break down Dundee United’s disciplined back line. Defensive lapses in the opening half left them chasing the game, and despite some spirited play after the interval, they rarely looked like mounting a comeback.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Dundee Utd
Dundee United executed their game plan to perfection, soaking up pressure and striking with clinical efficiency. Their 4-3-3 formation allowed them to break quickly, and they made the most of their chances, scoring three times from nine shots on target out of 13 attempts. The back four, marshaled by B. Esselink and M. Forbes, stood firm throughout, while the midfield trio provided energy and balance. After racing into a commanding lead, United managed the tempo and frustrated their hosts to secure an impressive away victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
St Mirren set up in a 4-2-3-1, aiming to control the midfield and dictate play, but their lack of penetration in the final third left them toothless. The wide players struggled to create overloads, and the lone striker, Eseosa Sule, was isolated for long spells. Dundee United’s 4-3-3 allowed them to absorb pressure and spring forward with pace, exploiting gaps left by St Mirren’s advanced full-backs. United’s midfield trio provided a solid platform, while their front three pressed high and capitalized on defensive errors. Substitutions in the second half appeared to be more about game management than tactical overhaul, as United sat deeper to protect their lead.
Turning Point
Dundee United’s second goal in the 12th minute, which gave them a commanding early cushion and forced St Mirren to chase the game.
Man of the Match
J. Randall
His direct involvement in the early goals set the tone for United’s dominant performance.
ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd: Match Preview
ST Mirren come into this fixture sitting fourth in the table with 10 points from 6 matches, but their momentum has stalled with back-to-back defeats against Rangers and Celtic. Their home record is balanced (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, 5 scored, 5 conceded), while Dundee Utd arrive in ninth with just one win from six and a negative goal difference, having failed to score in three of their last five. Both sides are seeking a stabilising result to arrest recent wobbles.
Statistically, this match is shaped by modest attacking output and defensive inconsistencies. ST Mirren are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1 conceded per league match, while Dundee Utd's away defence is leaking 2.33 per game (7 in 3), but their attack is unreliable, with only 4 goals in 3 away games and three blanks in the last five overall. The first half is typically more productive for both (6/5 first-half goals for ST Mirren, 3/2 for Dundee Utd in last five), but conversion rates remain low. Both teams average over 9 corners combined per game, and cards are likely to be above average, with nearly 4 per match between them.
Given the underlying rates, the model expects a tight, low-scoring contest, with neither side likely to dominate. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, as both teams' scoring and concession rates cluster around 1 per game, and the draw is historically common in this fixture. Margins are thin, and a single defensive lapse or set-piece could tip the balance.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
49%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd that most previews miss.
- 1ST Mirren have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 league games, but have conceded 5 goals in their last 3 at home.
- 2Dundee Utd have scored just once in their last three away league matches against ST Mirren.
- 3The last 10 H2H meetings have averaged only 2.0 goals per match, with 6 finishing under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.45
The model assigns a 33% probability to the draw, above the 28.6% implied by 3.5 odds. Both teams have averaged around 1 goal for and against per game, and 3 of the last 10 H2H have ended level, supporting a tightly contested outcome.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.1
The model's 55% probability for under 2.5 goals is above the 47.6% implied by the odds. Both sides are below 1.5 goals scored per game and ST Mirren's clean sheet rate is 50%, indicating a low-scoring environment.
Read more ↓
More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Prediction
This fixture pits a defensively solid ST Mirren, who have conceded just 1 goal per league game, against a Dundee Utd side struggling for attacking consistency and with the league's third-worst defensive record away (7 conceded in 3). Both teams' recent form is patchy, and neither has shown a reliable cutting edge, suggesting a match of fine margins.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Dundee Utd have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
Attack
- →Both teams' matches average below 2.5 goals per game this season.
Defence
- →ST Mirren's season clean sheet rate stands at 50%, highest in the bottom half.
🚩 ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for ST Mirren and 4.6 for Dundee Utd, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How ST Mirren and Dundee Utd Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
ST Mirrenlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dundee Utdlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ST Mirren's recent form is mixed, with two consecutive defeats against the league's top sides following a three-match unbeaten run. Their attack has produced just 1.2 goals per game in the last five, but defensive solidity remains a feature. Dundee Utd have struggled for consistency, with only one win in their last five and three matches without scoring, highlighting their attacking issues.
ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd have the historical edge, winning 6 of the last 10 meetings, but recent encounters in Paisley have been closer, including a 1-1 draw and a 2-0 win for ST Mirren. Low-scoring games are common in this fixture, with 6 of the last 10 finishing under 2.5 goals.
ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
ST Mirren wins
2
Draws
6
Dundee Utd wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd
The model finds notable value in the draw at 3.5 odds, with a 33% model probability versus a 28.6% market implied. Under 2.5 goals also shows a positive edge, as the model's 55% probability is above the 47.6% implied by the 2.10 odds. Both markets reflect the expectation of a tightly contested, low-scoring match.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd
- ⚠️Recent H2H history slightly favours Dundee Utd, who have won 6 of the last 10.
- ⚠️Both sides have shown volatility in performance, with ST Mirren's shot volume high but conversion inconsistent.
- ⚠️No significant injury news, but lineups are not confirmed at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ST Mirren 1–1 Dundee UtdA 1-1 draw is the likeliest result, underpinned by both sides' season-long average of around 1 goal scored and conceded per game. The strongest data point is Dundee Utd's lack of attacking output—just 6 goals in 6 matches, and 3 blanks in their last 5—balancing against ST Mirren's home defensive frailty. The main risk is either side capitalising on set pieces or defensive errors, which could swing the match towards a narrow win.
ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd: Common Questions
Who will win ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd?
The model gives ST Mirren a 39% chance of victory, Dundee Utd a 28% chance, and the draw 33%. Both teams' average scoring and concession rates suggest a tightly contested match, with a draw the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd?
There is a 51% probability of both teams scoring, with both sides averaging around 1 goal per game and defensive lapses evident in recent matches. However, Dundee Utd have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, so BTTS is only a marginal favourite.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet in ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd?
The model estimates a 55% probability for under 2.5 goals, above the 47.6% implied by bookmaker odds. Both teams' league matches average below 2.5 goals, and 6 of the last 10 H2H have finished under this line.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.