ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
ST Mirren
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
ST Johnstone
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Late Ramos Strike Seals Opening Day Win for St Mirren Over St Johnstone
St Mirren kicked off their Premiership campaign with a hard-fought 1-0 victory over St Johnstone at The SMISA Stadium, thanks to a decisive late goal from Samuel Ramos in the 73rd minute. In a match that ebbed and flowed, both sides struggled to break each other down for long spells, but it was the hosts who ultimately found the breakthrough after edging possession and creating the clearer chances. St Mirren's patient build-up and greater attacking intent eventually paid dividends, while St Johnstone's defensive discipline kept them in the contest until the final quarter. Despite a spirited effort from the visitors, their lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly as they failed to register a single goal from their limited opportunities.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
73' — Goal
Samuel Ramos finds the net after sustained St Mirren pressure, breaking the deadlock.
55' — Yellow Card
St Mirren player booked as the game grows more physical in midfield.
68' — Yellow Card
St Johnstone pick up their only yellow card as they battle to contain St Mirren's attacks.
80' — Yellow Card
Second St Mirren booking as they look to close out the result.
ST Mirren
St Mirren produced a composed and controlled display, dictating play with 52% possession and registering 12 shots, 4 of which tested Toby Steward in the St Johnstone goal. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate midfield exchanges and probe patiently for openings. The breakthrough came late on, but was deserved given their territorial advantage and more incisive attacking play. Defensively, the hosts were largely untroubled, limiting St Johnstone to just 2 shots on target and dealing well with the visitors' sporadic counters. While they picked up two yellow cards, St Mirren managed the game effectively after taking the lead, seeing out the closing stages with composure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ST Johnstone
St Johnstone set up in a matching 4-2-3-1 and kept their shape well, frustrating St Mirren for much of the contest. They conceded slightly more possession (48%) and struggled to create clear-cut chances, managing just 9 shots with only 2 on target. Their defensive line, marshaled by Cheick Diabate and Zach Mitchell, held firm until the 73rd minute but ultimately succumbed to sustained pressure. Going forward, St Johnstone lacked penetration, with their attacking midfielders unable to consistently link up with lone striker Josh Fowler. Despite a late push, they couldn't muster a significant response after falling behind, and their single yellow card reflected a generally disciplined but ultimately toothless display.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides deployed a 4-2-3-1 formation, leading to a congested midfield and a tactical battle for control. St Mirren used their double pivot to recycle possession and patiently probe the St Johnstone back line, often pushing their full-backs forward to provide width. Their attacking midfield trio found pockets of space, but St Johnstone's disciplined block limited clear openings until fatigue set in late on. St Johnstone focused on defensive solidity, rarely committing numbers forward and relying on quick transitions. However, their lack of support for Josh Fowler up front left them isolated in attack. Set pieces offered little joy for either team, with St Mirren's five corners well-defended by the visitors. Substitutions appeared to be reactive, with both managers seeking to shore up their respective units rather than dramatically alter the tactical picture.
Turning Point
Samuel Ramos's 73rd-minute goal, which rewarded St Mirren's persistence and forced St Johnstone to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Samuel Ramos
Provided the decisive moment of quality with his match-winning goal and was a constant creative threat.
ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone: Match Preview
Both ST Mirren and ST Johnstone arrive at the Premiership opener with momentum from their League Cup campaigns, each posting four wins in their last five matches. However, both sides lost their most recent fixture, and neither has played a league match this season, leaving their true level somewhat opaque. With both teams starting mid-table in the standings and no immediate pressure from the table, the focus is on setting a stable tone for the campaign.
Statistically, ST Mirren's attack has been prolific in the cup, averaging 3.2 goals per game, but their concession rate of 1.2 per match hints at defensive vulnerabilities. ST Johnstone, meanwhile, have combined a solid defence (0.6 conceded per game, three clean sheets in five) with a competent attack (2.4 scored per game), though their BTTS rate is low (just one in five). Both sides have shown a tendency to score in bursts, with ST Mirren netting ten of sixteen recent goals in second halves, while ST Johnstone have split their twelve goals more evenly.
Given the limited league data and the tendency for opening fixtures to be cagey, the model projects a low-scoring draw as the most likely outcome. Both teams' recent defensive records and the head-to-head trend towards close contests suggest neither will risk too much, especially in the first half. A 1-1 scoreline is the statistical favourite, with under 2.5 goals and a draw both supported by the underlying rates.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone that most previews miss.
- 1ST Mirren have scored exactly four goals in four of their last five matches, but failed to score in their most recent outing.
- 2ST Johnstone have kept three clean sheets in their last five, with only one match seeing both teams score.
- 3In the last five head-to-head meetings at The SMISA Stadium, ST Mirren have won three times, with two matches ending under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
A 1-1 draw is the single most likely outcome by the model (22%), reflecting both sides' moderate attacking output in the last five matches and a history of close H2H encounters.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
The model assigns a 57% probability to under 2.5 goals, supported by a low BTTS rate for both teams in their last five (ST Mirren 2/5, ST Johnstone 1/5) and a history of low-scoring league openers.
Read more ↓
More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone Prediction
A statistical deadlock is forecast at The SMISA Stadium, with both ST Mirren and ST Johnstone entering on the back of strong cup scoring but lacking league data to separate them. Recent form shows attacking bursts from both, but defensive solidity is less clear, and historical H2H suggests a narrow margin. The model expects a low-to-moderate scoring contest, with neither side likely to dominate for extended periods.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have won four of their last five matches, but each suffered a defeat in their most recent outing.
Defence
- →ST Mirren's last five matches average 3.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while ST Johnstone average 2.4 scored and 0.6 conceded.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head over the last ten meetings is competitive: ST Mirren five wins, ST Johnstone three, two draws.
🚩 ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for ST Mirren and 3.8 for ST Johnstone, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How ST Mirren and ST Johnstone Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
ST Mirrenlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ST Johnstonelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ST Mirren come into this fixture with four wins from their last five, averaging over three goals per game, but suffered a 0-1 defeat in their most recent cup outing. ST Johnstone also boast four wins in five and have conceded just three goals in that span, with their only defeat coming away at Inverness CT. Both teams' momentum is tempered by the lack of top-flight opposition in recent weeks.
ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone
ST Mirren have edged the recent head-to-head, winning five of the last ten meetings, including three of the last five at home. Draws and close scorelines are common, with four of the last ten finishing level or decided by a single goal. The last league meeting at this ground ended 0-1 to ST Johnstone, showing neither side dominates this fixture.
ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
ST Mirren wins
2
Draws
3
ST Johnstone wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so the model cannot identify value edges at this time. If odds on under 2.5 goals or the draw are offered above 1.75 (57% implied) and 2.75 (36% implied) respectively, those would merit close attention given the model's probabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone
- ⚠️No league form or home/away splits available for the new season; all rates are based on summer cup/friendly data.
- ⚠️Cup opponents varied in strength, so recent goal averages may not translate directly to league play.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ST Mirren 1–1 ST JohnstoneThe model predicts a 1-1 draw, with the strongest supporting data point being the low BTTS and under 2.5 rates for both teams in recent matches. The main risk is that the high scoring seen in the League Cup carries over, leading to a more open contest than the historical H2H and typical league openers suggest.
ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone: Common Questions
Who will win ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone?
The model gives ST Mirren a 37% chance of victory, ST Johnstone a 27% chance, and a draw 36%. With both teams in similar recent form and no league data, a draw is marginally favoured.
Will both teams score in ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone?
There is a 48% probability of both teams scoring, reflecting ST Mirren's two BTTS matches in their last five and ST Johnstone's one. The model slightly prefers 'no' on BTTS.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone?
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 57% by the model, with both sides showing strong defensive records in recent matches and a history of low-scoring league encounters.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.