St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Predictions
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
St. Truiden
AI Predicted Score
0 - 2
Union St. Gilloise
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Union St. Gilloise Win
@ 1.45
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Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
42%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
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Where the Model Sees Value: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Union St. Gilloise Win@ 1.45
Union St. Gilloise are league leaders, have a dominant H2H record (7 wins in last 10), and are in strong form (WDWWW). St. Truiden have improved recently but struggle against USG, and the away side's defensive record is excellent (0.54 conceded/game, 49% clean sheets). Model probability is 0.57 vs implied 0.69, so value is limited, but outcome is likely.
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BTTS: No@ 1.2
Both teams have low BTTS rates recently (2/5), USG have conceded just 19 in 35 games, and 3 clean sheets in last 5. St. Truiden failed to score in 2 of last 5. H2H also supports low BTTS (6/10 ended with at least one team blanking). Odds are short and value is negative, but outcome is probable.
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Correct Score: 0–2
USG's defensive solidity and H2H dominance suggest a controlled away win. St. Truiden have only scored 1.4 goals/game in last 5, and USG have conceded just 0.4. Recent H2H: 0-1, 1-3, 0-2.
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The Case For This St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction
Union St. Gilloise visit St. Truiden as strong favourites, backed by a dominant H2H record and the league's best defence. St. Truiden have improved form with back-to-back wins, but generally struggle to break down USG, who have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 and rarely lose on the road. Expect a controlled, low-scoring game with USG likely to edge it, possibly without conceding.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →St. Truiden's recent form is improved (WWDLL), but they have failed to score in 2 of last 5.
- →USG have won 7 of last 10 H2H, including both meetings this season (1-0, 3-1).
Defence
- →Union St. Gilloise have lost just 2 in 35 league games, with 23 wins and 19 goals conceded.
- →USG's away record (7W, 8D, 2L) is strong, and they keep clean sheets in nearly half their matches.
- →St. Truiden's home attack is decent (1.53 goals/game), but USG's defence is the best in Belgium.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
🚩 St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for St. Truiden and 5 for Union St. Gilloise, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 52%.
How St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
St. Truidenlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Union St. Gilloiselast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +48.57% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
St. Truiden wins
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise
- ⚠️Away win odds offer little value; market is heavily weighted to USG.
- ⚠️Some recent USG matches have been low scoring and tight (0-0, 1-0).
- ⚠️Lack of detailed recent match stats for USG (shots, possession) reduces model confidence.
- ⚠️St. Truiden's recent uptick in form could present a minor upset risk.
- ⚠️All recommendations are based solely on available data; no guarantee of outcome.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 27 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Resources
St. Truiden Predictions
All St. Truiden fixtures & tips
Union St. Gilloise Predictions
All Union St. Gilloise fixtures & tips
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Jupiler Pro League Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results